Good morning 41 Action News Weather Bloggers,
For the second straight night there was a band of showers and thunderstorms. Last night’s activity extended from just south of Lawrence to Paola, KS crossing the state line into Bates county. This was farther south than Sunday night’s activity and only in a very isolated area early this morning. We expect the late night and early morning thunderstorm activity to increase a bit the next two nights. This forecasting of where the rain will fall and how much is quite a challenge. I think it will shift back to the north a bit with Thursday morning having the best chance of some rain.
We continue to be in the circulation around a rather large anticyclone, the heat wave creating machine. It was 111° in Wichita, KS and Little Rock, AR yesterday. That is extreme heat, but the hottest air of the summer is likely in August. We have been forecasting the strongest heat wave of the summer for next month for weeks now and I don’t see how it doesn’t happen. Between now and when the heat wave expands back to the north over our region we can expect a few chances for rain. Hopefully these chances of thunderstorms produce a bit more wide spread activity than we have seen lately.
The anticyclone is centered over west Texas near the New Mexico border today. We are in the “rim of fire” around this heat wave creating machine. Sometimes it gets quite wet in a zone around these systems, but this year it has been a struggle. There are a lot of clouds and small areas of rain and thunderstorms rotating around the anticyclone today, while at the same time it is helping generate some tremendous heat just to our southwest. One disturbance will move across later tonight, with a stronger one, now over Arizona, moving across us our local region on Thursday. These will provide a chance of thunderstorms later tonight and again on Thursday morning. 
By Friday night and Saturday a stronger storm system will be tracking across the northern plains, as you can see to the right (click on either of these maps for a larger view). This system will force the anticyclone to weaken and shift south and it will also help drive a weak cold front through our area Saturday afternoon and evening. The extreme heat over southern Kansas may be forced out over our area on Saturday ahead of the front and, depending on the timing of the front, the temperatures could jump to as high or higher than they have been so far this summer. There will also be a chance of thunderstorms near this frontal zone. After this front moves through is when my concerns grow for the high likelihood of the strongest anticyclone of the summer with a resulting major heat wave expanding over a large part of the United States in August. Take a look at this next map:
This forecast map, above, shows a huge anticyclone centered over Colorado on August 14th. Our first heat wave developed in late June and this would be right on schedule according to the LRC. If this forms and moves east out over the plains states, then we will, unfortunately, have to deal with potentially the strongest and hottest heat wave of the entire summer as the kids are getting ready to go back to school. I hope this doesn’t materialize but I have high confidence that it will. So, the forecast for August includes a major heat wave with limited chances for rain. The best chances will likely come during the next week to ten days and then later in the month.
Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog. Let us know if you have any questions or comments.
Gary
Gary, can you expand on a time frame for the hot heat within August?
Gary,
Is cloud seeding viable, or just a sham. Reading up on it you get pro’s and con’s based on historical data.
My only question is when will this inferno end? In a normal year, usually right after Labor Day, the temps begin to fall and rain increases, however I hate to think what this year will bring. One would think, if this pattern continues, it could be well into October, before we see any real kind of break from this extreme heat and who knows if the rains will return. I know you say the new LRC will begin in October, so we can only hope for a huge change!!
I must’ve been in one of the places that got rain last night, our deck is all wet. Too bad I couldn’t have been awake to enjoy it. Is there a chance of anything widespread Thursday and Sunday, or just slightly more of what our rain chances have been?
Gary,
Did you see this mountain-top tornado in Colorado this weekend?
http://www.meteorologynews.com/2012/07/30/rare-mountain-top-tornado-touches-down-in-colorado/
Wish I could directly post pictures in the comments – those photos are wild!
O.K Gary, you have given us this dire forecast for August and the returning heat wave. I like frigate want to here your prediction based on the LRC when this heat and drought will end and the rain and cool weather will return to our area. I know the cycle starts to happen in Oct and Nov. but what do you think is going to happen. TR
September is always more of a wild card as it is in transition from one pattern into the next one. But, we have found it to more resemble the old pattern until around the very end of the month, which likely means more of the same deep into September.
I guess our only hope for August is that the LRC is as accurate with this heatwave as it was for total snowfall for the winter and total rainfall for the summer. It’s grasping for straws, but one can hope.
Picked August 12 for the hottest day contest, looks like that might be too early. Then again, maybe this anticyclone won’t materialize to the full extent predicted and the hottest day of the summer will end up being August 4 or one of the 106 days in July.
I mean “the 106 days in July.” How can one be the hottest if they’re both 106, right? Unless we’re going to tenths of degrees and there’s some data at NWS showing what the highs were to the nearest tenth of a degree.
This is bull $h!t, dont we or the chinese have the technology to break up this pattern,, detonate a bomb at like 10k feet, crop dusting,, or something..
Cloud seeding does work, but you have to have clouds to seed.
Garden City/Creighton I guess you could say we had rain last night. A few drops in the gauge. More than the last “rain”. I guess one could call it about .05″. More or less a hundredth of an inch.
UGH!!! We move our daughter to Columbia, MO for school on Aug. 14th… knowing our luck that will be the hottest day of the entire summer… not looking forward to August at all…..
Gary, just read on AccuWeather.com that Long Range Expert Joe Bastardi believes there is a significant chance for particularly frigid winters in 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 into 2014-2015. What do you think, with all the hot weather lately do you believe that we could be heading in the other direction this winter?
I think there is just as much chance of frigid winters as there are mild winters. Every year is unique.
Gary
Every year is unique, but low soil moisture is linked to more extreme temperatures. If you look back, a lot of extreme cold records were set during the same time period of the 1930s as the extreme hot records.
Two “recent” examples of what you are talking about are the flip-flops from the blazing (although not to this long term degree) summers of 1983 and 2000: Those were both hot late summers followed by very, very cold Novembers and Decembers (1983 was particularly cold and contains many records to date).
The problem is, weather being unpredictable as it is, how does one then explain 1989? That was a relatively mild summer followed by the COLDEST spell of weather just before Christmas ever!
Here’s hoping the August forecast is off the mark………but previous history suggests it will be way above normal thru probably mid-September at the earliest.
Wow, a forecast of more heat in August after a hot June and July. The LRC is really a revolutionary forecast tool! I wonder how NOAA was able to come up with the exact same forecast without using the LRC….
Seems like the real value that a tool like the LRC would have in this situation is telling us when the hot pattern would end.
The LRC says the heat will end – of course – when fall approaches!
Jerry,
Yes, and when winter approaches it will get colder. And, then next summer it will get hot again.
Nice reply. I don”t understand why these trolls won’t leave you be. If they don’t believe just go the #@!% away.
I’m sorry, I thought the LRC was a scientific concept and subject to debate. But your post made me realize that it’s a religious belief that has to be accepted on faith. And non believers are apparently not welcome.
Gee R-Dub, you shouldn’t get all butthurt when someone calls you out for being the asshat you are.
You aren’t looking for a debate, you are simply taking a shot at the LRC because you can.
Some very nice downpours around 159th and Nall last night, lasted 15 minutes or so, great rain. Fantastic update Gary.
Crazy photos of a “mountain-top” tornado…tried to post a link earlier, but it must have been lost in the ether.
“http://www.meteorologynews.com/2012/07/30/rare-mountain-top-tornado-touches-down-in-colorado”
Jerry,
Wow! I hadn’t seen this. I will show it on the air tonight at 5 or 6 PM.
Gary
It happened near Mt. Evans, whose summit is over 14,000 feet, and is the second-highest in elevation tornado ever documented. I think the funnel touched down at around 12,000 feet, above treeline. Pretty cool to see a tornado funnel below you!
is there a place to see how much rainfall we had in a certain area?? I’m sure there is, just having a hard time finding it
Does anyone know the number of days that were 90+ this summer? Also what day in our drought we are in?
We’ve had 47 days of 90+ in 2012 as of today, including 44 since June 1, which is the start of met summer. We had one 90+ day in April, and 2 in May. As for the drought, the last month of above average precipitation was March. So if you go from April 1 through today, that’s 122 days. Actually, the last big rain of March was on March 28-29, a couple days before the month ended.
Gary,
Have you been able to compare any of this year’s data to the drought / heat wave during the Dust Bowl years? How is the summer of 2012 stacking up historically?
From what I have perused, it compares to the droughts and heat of the 1980s and 1950s. As for the 1930s, it’s not even close. I think I read that we’ve had around 17 days of 100 degree heat this year. In 1936 I know they had more than 50.
1934 holds the record at 53 days. 1936 is not far behind, somewhere in the 40′s. If we reached 100 today it would be day 18 which would surpass 1980.
The record is 53 in 1936. 1934 is second.
I’ll play contrarian and predict that August turns out to be significantly cooler and wetter than expected, based on the observation that all four seasons have seemed to start earlier this year than in previous years. Thus, the current LRC will be ending sooner than expected.
And, yes, this is definitely a wishcast!
Great article on the Heat Wave of 1936 and what the residents of KC did to cope with no a/c.
http://www.kclibrary.org/?q=blog/week-kansas-city-history/heat-wave
Interesting article,ThinkQuik…
Yeah, Rick, I was thinking the same thing. Maybe fall can start early the way spring and summer did…a nice dream.
Then the rational side says “but there’s no mechanistic reason why that would happen in fact with all this heat you should expect a late fall and…” Too depressing. Back to the wishcast…
It will be nice to be in Sydney, Australia late next week! Temps will be a lot cooler then here for sure! I hope we miss the high temps that Gary is talking about. Hopefully they will be gone by the 24th of August! Maybe we can drag some of that cooler weather back with us!
Jerry cool links to the mountain tornado!
I say the picture also yesterday…Thought at first someone had been drinking “A Tad” much of Coors…
I saw,,,hic
Gary,,We know that you say the LRC “SHOWS” a heat wave in August..Is this the same LRC that showed severe weather for the mo. of May???Signed ,,Kevin
Hey Everyone,,,Don,t forget to flush your toilets…The Missouri River Race 340 is in progress…They could use the extra water flow…
Funny! lol