August Forecast: We Are Now Moving Into The Sixth Cycle

Good morning bloggers,

We have just started the sixth cycle of this years weather pattern. A unique weather pattern sets up every fall according to the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.  The pattern usually begins between the 5th and 10th of October. The pattern that sets up, then evolves, and becomes established during October and November. By December we can see and experience the pattern repeating. Incredibly, the pattern then continues through the rest of fall, winter, spring, and summer with a regular cycle.  This years cycle fell into the 56-61 day range centered on 58 to 59 days.  Let’s look at what happened around this week in each cycle:

  • Cycle 1, around October 13th:  Kansas City was close to having an early freeze on October 13th.  The low was 35 degrees with a high of 58. Just four days later it was 87 with a low of 71, then it was back down to 38 degrees on the 21st
  • Cycle 2, around December 11th (59 days later):  Kansas City had a low of 20 degrees with a high of 44.  It dropped to 13 on the 12th, and then to NINE DEGREES BELOW ZERO on the 18th.  2″ of snow fell on December 17th, 2 of the whopping 5.3″ of snow this past winter.
  • Cycle 3, around February 8th (59 days later):  The low was 15 degrees with a high of 27. IT WAS 69 degrees just two days later. INCREDIBLE warm up. And, we know how dry it was in February
  • Cycle 4, around April 8th (59 days later):  It was 34 degrees for a low on the 7th, then it warmed up to 77 degrees on the 8th, and then back down to 37 degrees  on the 11th
  • Cycle 5, around June 6th (59 days later):  It was 82 degrees with a low of 65, but wait a second.  It dropped to lows of 59, 58, and 56 degrees on the 7th-8th-9th
  • Cycle 6, around August 4th (59 days later):  It appears we will be in the 50s for lows again later this week which will be close to record lows

The pattern has produced rather similar conditions in each cycle.  A big warm up is still likely near the middle of August. The potential for heavy rainfall will be rather high as well this month. The second halves of each month this year have been wetter than the first halves, with the exception of April, which was close.


Kansas City came through again.


Kansas City Forecast For August:

  • Rainfall:  The rainfall amounts will once again vary widely across the Kansas City region.  We are forecasting the same thing that has happened within each month, which is a wetter second half of the month.  There have been areas that have been missed by the heavy rainfall, all around Kansas City, so this is not at slam dunk that it will be above average this month. There will likely be spots that get missed again. The same spots that have been hit by the heavy rain are likely once again to be the spots that get hit again.
  • Temperatures:  The first half will be below average with a  huge warm up likely between the 15th and 20th.  There is a good chance of a second heat wave of the summer during the second half of the month, but that will still likely be surrounded by thunderstorms as we have experienced this summer

A Look At The Pattern:

A strong summer cold front will be developing by Wednesday, and then by Thursday it will be sweeping across the plains and upper midwest. Here is the 7 AM Thursday surface forecast:


It appears that Kansas City will stay dry from this system as you can see on this rainfall forecast from the overnight GFS model:


This pattern continues to cycle. We continue to share this weather experience with you, and we appreciate your participation. Here we are moving into August. I think we can all agree that this summer of weather has been quite entertaining. It has been anything but boring.  Have a great day!  You can join in on the conversation over at Weather2020.com.


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