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Winter Storm Watch Wednesday Night-Thursday

Good morning bloggers,

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the entire viewing area!

Anticipation is building as a major winter storm approaches the area.  This appears it will be our biggest storm of the winter season so far.

Weather Forecast Timeline

  • Today:  Sunny and cold. A second surge of cold air will arrive later today and tonight. This will set the stage for the storm system that is moving into Southern California today
  • Tonight:  Clear & very cold. Low: 12°
  • Wednesday:  Increasing clouds with no chance of any snow or sleet. High: 29°
  • Wednesday Night:  Snow, Sleet, and Freezing Rain developing.  Accumulations are likely before the morning rush hour. Low:  22°
  • Thursday:  Heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain. A 100% chance and there will likely be a few thunderstorms. Yes, thunderstorms with snow and sleet are likely!  Significant accumulations will cause very slick and hazardous driving conditions. Temperatures in the 20s with wind chills near zero.  The wind will be blowing at 20 to 25 mph and this will cause some blowing and drifting of the snow.

1

This is the snowfall forecast that we issued last night. Our weather team will continue to analyze the data and update this forecast later today and on Wednesday as the storm approaches.  Temperatures will be well below freezing which will increase the liquid to snow ratio to around 12 to 1. So, one inch of rain would likely be able to result in 12 inches of snow with the temperatures in the middle 20s expected during this storm.  Now, one question that comes to mind is will it all be snow, or will there be sleet and  freezing rain mixed in. Sleet is frozen rain drops that are ice before reaching he ground. Freezing rain is liquid rain that freezes on contact with the ground. There may be a thin zone that has freezing rain and this area will have the highest potential for having accumulation of ice on power lines.  Right now it appears this threat is south of Kansas City.  Here is a forecast map for just after 2 AM Thursday morning.

29

Weather Discussion:

3A storm is  now dropping into the Los Angeles area of Southern California. 2 feet of snow will likely fall in the mountains around LA with snow levels lowering to 3,000 feet, or possibly even lower. I grew up out there and when the snow falls that low it becomes a beautiful scene all around Southern California with snow all over the mountains.  The upper level low, that will become our storm system, is just now in the process of developing. And, then it will intensify and move our way. It will then move out into the plains and weaken. This is one of the unusual characteristics of this storm I have been talking about.  And, if you wonder how this upper level storm is related to the LRC (which is directly related to a November 10th storm and the New Year’s Eve snowstorm), go to Weather 2020 blog and click on the blog.  It will leave you with confidence that the LRC exists. I have been expecting this storm around February 20th for 50 days now and it is right on schedule.  Now, why is this storm being described as unusual?

2

This storm is becoming vertically stacked. This means that the upper level low will be almost directly over the low centers at other levels. In most storm systems this is not the case.  And, not only is it becoming vertically stacked as it moves out into the plains, but the surface low is  going to end up well to the south and southwest of the storm. This is likely happening in response to another storm dropping into the southwestern states and the pressures are beginning to be affected by the second storm, even though the ejecting storm is dominant. I can imagine how complex this is, and my meteorological mind is having a hard time with this as well.  But, it is truly happening and it makes this storm quite rare, but related to this year’s weather pattern.  As you can see on this surface map, the surface low is near Amarillo, while the upper level low is in western Kansas.

This next map shows an 850 mb map valid at noon Thursday.  This is the 5,000 foot level and if you were to just show me this map and I knew nothing else I would think that the upper level low was in eastern New Mexico. But, it isn’t. And, I would think, wow, Kansas City is going to have a major snowstorm, and we may have one?  But, the parameters are somewhat backwards. This IS UNUSUAL.  It’s how I see it, but for us to get snow sometimes you need something a little different to happen.

1

The new NAM model does it’s usual thing of being ridiculously wet. This solution would produce one foot snow amounts in our viewing area, but let’s hang on and see how the models trend. Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog and let us know if you have any questions.  I will be working on a new blog later today. It may take until after the 6 PM newscast.

Gary

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186 comments to Winter Storm Watch Wednesday Night-Thursday

  • HeatMiser

    Gary, what are the chances you might up our totals?

  • mattmaisch

    Latest Canadian Model. (GEM) Amounts are shown in millimeters, but the yellow stripe that cuts right across the heart of the metro equates to 8-10″ of snow. For the record, this model has been running higher than the others all along, but still, it’s something to consider.

    “http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&type=SN&hi=000&hf=120&lang=en&map=na”

  • mattmaisch

    ECMWF also much futher south with its solution for the ULL than it was last night.

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013021900&region=USA&var=HGT_500mb&hour=072″

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    Gary, I just wanted to say that I like your approach as well as the NWS Pleasant Hill approach to this winter storm. The models are all over the place. I think we are definately going to have to wait until tomorrow afternoon or evening until the Low gets on shore and can be sampled. One thing about it though, we are definately going to get something though in the form of winter weather and that’s why I think the NWS offices to the west have hoisted the Winter Storm Watch. I expect us to be in a Winter Storm Watch by noon tomorrow.

  • interesting that NWS has already posted a special weather statement for southern half of missouri regarding potential ice on Thursday…yet far eastern kansas and northern half of missoui have no watches or advisories issued yet. Obviously they dont know what to issue yet…??

  • Kcchamps

    it will be interesting to see what the overnight and morning models have to say as the storm starts to come ashore

  • you waiting up for the next one to come out kcchamps lol?

  • maybe me……… lol. how soon will they be out?

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    I will be up all night Kcchamps. I work nights this week and next :) The low is forecast to come onshore tomorrow morning between 7-10am. The model runs after that will be the ones that I really focus on, and like I said the NWS has been playing this conservative as well. NWS out of Wichita has said 4-9″ with freezing rain and sleet. The NWS out of Topeka has said just moderate to heavy snowfall, and I believe by noon tomorrow the NWS out of Pleasant Hill will hoist a Winter Storm Watch for most of the area.

  • fire508

    Nam up to hr 39 so far and looks to be just a little further south. Also HPC has updated their 3 day and has kc with 70% of 4 inches, 10-40% for 8, and 10% for 12

  • fire508

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013021906&time=INSTANT&var=SNODI&hour=084″

  • McCabe58

    Looking good!!

  • Kcchamps

    “http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_72HR.gif”

    latest NAM snow map shows 5-10″ for the metro, Just a bit more south and we would see a good 8-10″

  • Kcchamps

    “http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-SLEET_66HR.gif”

    and here is the NAM SLEET accum. map shows .50-.75″ of sleet, so add that to the Snow map and there’s your storm.

  • McCabe58

    Lots of sleet it looks like here in northern cass county..

  • McCabe58

    WSW issued for the metro!!

  • cjmitch

    It looks like our storm is finally washing aboard, looking at the satellite (at 2:45)

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    GFS should be coming out here in the next 5-10 mins. The Winter Storm Watch is still pretty vague though. It’s pretty much a heads up to people who aren’t paying attention to the weather or are living under a rock. It really looks like we may be just a county or two south of the HEAVY, HEAVY (8-10″) snows. The problem with snow totals is and has been, how much sleet are we going to pick up.

  • Vinny

    SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS…THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT
    SNOW…SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
    GENERALLY FALL NORTH OF A LEAVENWORTH TO RICHMOND LINE…WHILE THE
    GREATEST THREAT FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
    PAOLA TO WARRENSBURG LINE. A MIX OF SNOW…SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
    WILL OCCUR IN BETWEEN THESE AREAS.

    http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=eax&wwa=winter storm watch

    This is not looking good.

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    “http://www.wunderground.com/winter-storm/q-2013″ You can see this storm still hasn’t came ashore. Its still 3-6 hrs out in the Pacific.

  • Kcchamps

    latest GFS has mostly snow for us, with around .75″ of precip

  • Kcchamps

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013021906&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=069″

    latest GFS looks impressive

  • cjmitch

    Rdub, when you are out and about, looking forward to comparing totals and getting good ground truth again (from your fellow compatriot near downtown OP) …if you are still there. It’s been about three years since I’ve posted anything here so I’m a little behind on whereabouts.

    • R-Dub

      Yes, I’m still around and still live near downtown OP. probably won’t be posting at 4:21 am though! It’s gonna be interesting. Glad I’m not traveling this week, have out of town guests but they’re not arriving until Friday afternoon.

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    NWS in Springfield went ahead and just issued a Winter Storm Watch. They too are vague like the surrounding offices. GFS is over doing it in my opinion. Again, anything I see after noon today I am going to take a lot more serious.

  • Vinny

    SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS…THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT
    SNOW…SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
    GENERALLY FALL NORTH OF A LEAVENWORTH TO RICHMOND LINE…WHILE THE
    GREATEST THREAT FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
    PAOLA TO WARRENSBURG LINE. A MIX OF SNOW…SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
    WILL OCCUR IN BETWEEN THESE AREAS.

    Not looking good !

  • Kcchamps

    “http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_66HR.gif”

    latest GFS snow map shows 6-10″ for the metro

  • Kole Christian

    I’m ready for my 4 inches of snow.

  • plowboy87

    Champs is there another storm for next week too?

  • Good morning everybody! Are we ready for a fun day of models and blogging?

  • Kole Christian

    NWS giving my place 3-7 inches, and we are now under a winter storm watch.

  • R-Dub

    Remember everyone, the snow:liquid ratios are going to be low for this storm because it’s a warm snow. So the usual rule of thumb (10 or 12 inches of snow per inch of moisture) will over predict. NWS says 8-10:1 for the snow and 2:1 for sleet.

    So if we get 1″ of moisture, but only half is snow….that’s 4-5 inches of snow with an inch of sleet on top.

    • A normal storm has a 10:1 ration. So them saying 8-10:1 is not that big of a difference. Temperatures will be in the mid 20′s for this event. I dont think it will be hard to get 10:1

        • R-Dub

          Actually, in KC 12:1 or more is common with the cold dry snows we get. And remember, it’s not just the temp at the surface that matters for snow ratio. The warm air aloft will make it wetter (when it’s not turning snow to sleet).

          • Gary backs me up with his comment in the blog. Like I said temperatures will be in the mid 20′s through this event. It will not be hard to get our normal 10-12:1 with this event. There is enough artic air in place that it will not be as low as NWS is saying.

            • R-Dub

              He does, but that just means you’re both wrong. It’s not just about surface temperature; it’s about the temperature all the way through the profile.

              Think about it; how can warm air aloft change snow to sleet, yet have no effect on snow ratios?

  • craigmac

    Kcchamps – How do you get to the map on wxcaster for sleet?
    I have looked all over and cannot seem to find that map.

    Thank you for the help.

  • HeatMiser

    TOTAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS…THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
    MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
    ARE EXPECTED. – Looks like we should get mostly snow. Here is the latest NWS snowfall prediction map…amounts keep increasing.

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/top/?n=winterbrief.htm

  • R-Dub

    Gary your statement about 12:1 ratio is in direct contradiction to what NWS said, and also doesn’t really make sense. How can you have a storm with a warm layer that changes snow to sleet, but also have a high snow:liquid ratio? The two don’t go together. Snow ratio is based on the profile, not just surface temps,

  • Hockeynut69

    Storm is slowing a bit. That could give us more time to cool and also increase the totals slightly. Going for 4-8″ in the metro area.

  • nsewest

    Getting REAL excited, waiting to see how this turns out! Thank you, Gary, for your detailed predictions, and thanks to others for helping along my learning about how storms develop….just a HUGE lover of snow here, so I’m hoping for at least enough white stuff for a big play day for my dog, Glacier :)

  • HeatMiser

    A competitor news station predicted up to a foot of snow for Lawrence

  • jrann

    Wow, I thought competition was always on the low end.

  • weather

    Gary nice blog write up. Will you be wearing the snowvest tonight and Wednesday? I like the way you cut Jerry off at the pass about how this fits your theory lol. The pressure is on!!

  • Kole Christian

    Jacob Honeycutt,

    I’m just north of Parkville. The NWS is calling 3-7 for me, I do not use TWC as they are extremely inaccurate. They make very general predictions.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    The new NAM is overhyping the moisture. Those totals on the NAM way over the projected snowfall amounts.

    This is a wait and see game as the storm is now making its appearance on shore in Cali.

    • Sv7Fooster

      Got a link handy?

      • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

        The 12z GFS is also pretty wet as well

        “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p12&cycle=12&image=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_057_precip_p12.gif”

        “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_p24&cycle=12&image=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_051_precip_p24.gif”

  • weather

    Sleet is going to be the wild card here. More sleet = less snow.
    Will need to wait another 12-24 hours to really know how much sleet we may get. Let the fun begin.

  • Theo

    If LRC is true, look out on tax day.

  • Ldyatthelake

    So, just east of Warsaw in Benton County, I’m looking at major ice?

  • mattmaisch

    Latest SREF for MKC. Totals continue to go up on each run!

    “http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20130219&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=MKC&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap”

  • Fred Souder

    Gary,
    I thought storms tended to slow down when they became vertically stacked, although it has been a while since I read this. Also, where is the storm supposed to become stacked? I was a little confused by the write-up.
    Will this cause the storm to become occluded before it reaches us? I remember a strong line of storms in OK one winter along an occluded front that left over 2 inches of ice in some counties in the NE of the state. What a mess.

    • jgbrazil

      Fred, I was also confused, but I think it’s just because this storm is so confusing and not because of what Gary wrote. He posted some other maps yesterday that showed the other Low that helped me make some sense of it.

      Anyway, the hype around this storm is hilarious! I’m a teacher and everyone is already talking snow day!!

  • hippygoth

    I think for fun, the weather team should be doing the forecast from next to a random salt dome on Thursday morning. The drawing straws can be for the reporter to do the mandatory report from a vantage point overlooking a highway.

    H.

  • jrann

    Matt, I couldn’t get the link to work. What is it telling us?

  • f00dl3

    Is your statement “this is no usual storm” a reference to global warming causing this storm?

  • f00dl3

    Call me nuts but I can see a scenario – models are starting to kind of hint at this – where the percipitation is convective over central Kansas and by the time the line of “storms” so-to-speak gets here it will be in a weakened state. I can honestly foresee the 00z GFS tonight only giving us 0.3″ of moisture out of this.

    • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

      Explain? I don’t see any hints of less moisture. Actually see both over hyping what amounts of moisture where there a couple runs ago.

      Do you have some data ?

  • ChiefsFan

    Gary or anyone, when will the brunt of the accumulation occur, or will it be heavy the whole event?

  • weather

    If this was the northeast it would be all over the news and chaos would insue! Dow up over 14,000 ching ching let the cash register ring lol

  • Kole Christian

    We Midwesterners are just more chill.

  • HeatMiser

    Brett Anthony is saying storm is trending more to snow and less to sleet. He says this will up snowfall totals. Will wait a bit longer before uping the amounts on the snowfall projection map.

  • weather

    Shovels are being deployed to all the schools in the area. All kids must take one home and dig us out on their snowday. Any kids that do not shovel will go to juvenile detention!

  • hayswx

    NWS in Dodge City is forecasting 12″t for me. See link below.

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=ddc

    My site– http://www.hayskansasweather.com

  • The U of KC

    I am new to the blog but have been reading it for awhile now and I just want to say I love it and all the useful information

  • stjoeattorney

    12-16 STJOE KCI 8-10 DOWNTOWN 5-8

    IF ONE THING I HAVE SAID THE SAME THING SINCE SATURDAY AM.

  • weather

    Our custodian of records mowermike has your prediction. If you are wrong expect a cut and paste of it on Friday!

  • The U of KC

    41 action just had the new data come in and it looks like the storm is slowing down allowing the cold air to set in place and allow more snow. Looks like they will up the snow totals later today

  • McCabe58

    No way honeycutt, you said its going to be a sleet/freezing rain storm! All snow baby!!! New don’t pay attention to f00d3l, he’s always down playing storms

  • FenderBender

    Thundersleet? Thundersnow?

    Anyways, if you haven’t already heard this, this is for your enjoyment.

    “http://www.freejohnnydare.com/fjd/2011/01/snownami-the-orchestral-version/”

  • heavysnow

    Winter Storm Warnings for Southwest kansas

  • sedsinkc

    Snow likely now, but I have a small concern. The large supply of cold, dry air bleeding into our area from the east as this storm approaches is going to erode the precipitation significantly. This shows up nicely in the new GFS precip forecast totals. Still has us in the .75 to 1 inch total range, but just E of town is in the .5 to .75 range. The heaviest precip totals are out in central Kansas, around to just over 1.5 inches of liquid equiv. So the storm will be weakening as it gets to us. Question is how much how fast. I remember a situation several years ago where we had a winter storm warning for over 6 inches of snow, and as storm came in from the west, a steady flow of very dry air from the east eroded the storm and we ended up only getting about an inch in Liberty where I was living at the time. I can’t remember specifically when that occurred (which is frustrating for me). But we know KC has had situations where big winter storms were forecast and they did not materialize. fwiw I hope my concerns turn out to be unwarranted.

    • weather

      This is KC so of course it’s warranted!

    • MikeL

      I hear you. Dewpoints have been dropping into the single digits around the region the past few hours. It concerns me, too.

    • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

      Well I would agree if the storm was closer, the dew point drop is not indicative of dry air when the storm approaches. This storm is carrying a lot of moisture according to NAM and GFS. However anything is possible, but don’t grab one single data point and make an assumption off of it.

      The dew point can rise as it does with an impending storm nearby and closing in. Much like last week dew point was 8 prior to the rain event and rapidly increased to 46 then 61. So something to watch but not to validate the storm still too far away

  • For those who dont know, I manage a hotel here in Kansas City. Just got a call from the Chief Meteorologist of a competition station. Him and his team will be staying at my hotel for 2 nights for this storm. This shall be interesting. Especially with him knowing who I am and what I do. Dont worry…I wont cheat on Gary! lol.

    • Jerry

      When you say “especially with him knowing who I am and what I do” what do you mean? What is it that you do, other than work at a hotel?

      • Im a professional storm chaser. I travel the country chasing tornadoes and all sorts of different severe weather. Youll be able to hear and see some of my reports this spring on 41 Action News. I was an intern with Gary and the weather team for over 3 years.

        • muwxman

          Just curious how does one define them self as a “professional storm chaser”? The reason I ask I have seen people around the country say the same thing, but there is no criteria set or formal training/education. So I am just interested to see how you define it.

          • Ive taken classes taught by Dr Les Lemon on the fundamentals of storm chasing. Also I have a lot of experience in storm chasing as I have chased all over the country. I have chased and learned with some big names in the field including Reed Timmer. Also learning from our own weather team for several years now. Your right, a lot of people call themselves storm chasers when really they are just people who want to see a storm. I am a certified emergency responder for Kansas City Emergency Management as well. So when storms hit, I am one of the first ones in to assist.

            • muwxman

              My opinion there are better words than professional, like veteran or experienced. Professional makes it sounds like you can get certified or something for it. Thanks for the reply.

            • Jerry

              To me a professional is one with a degree. Do you have a degree in meteorology?

        • weather

          How do you become a “professional” storm chaser? Does ITT Tech offer a class and will we see you in one of their commercials lol.

  • hayswx

    Winter Storm Warning posted for me in Hays. Over a foot of snow expected.

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ddc/

    My site…. http://www.hayskansasweather.com

  • weather

    Why would they need to stay at a hotel?

  • McCabe58

    You may be right, but I thought this storm is going to be pulling plenty of warmth and moisture with it…?

  • HeatMiser

    Yeah, if they are from a competing station that means they are local…why do they need to stay in a hotel?

  • mgsports

    It can sill do that or better yet really get warm so Severe Weather can happen.

  • yes..Gary said there is a good chance of thunder-snow..so that means the storm would have to be pulling some gulf moisture/instability in, right? (I only took 1 semester of meterology in college lol) so maybe i’m wrong?

    • mowermike

      We’ll saturate just fine, maybe a tad slower then first thought.

      All snow folks….lot’s of it too. Should be the biggest snowfall in the last 2 years for sure and maybe the last 3 years. I think that the official total at KCI for the Blizzard during the 2011-2012 was just under 9 inches. Not certain on this though.

  • rockchalkLG

    Accuweather just dropped their snow total forecast to the 2-4 inch range. Is there new data to back up that downward trend?

    New to this blog, but really enjoy all of your posts and insights.

  • hayswx

    Why do my comments await moderation?

  • hayswx

    Winter Storm Warning posted for me in Hays. Over a foot of snow expected.

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ddc/

    My site…. http://www.hayskansasweather.com

    • allietag

      Our Wrestlers will be headed that direction for State Wrestling this weekend. I am really concerned about travel for this event. Our administration are talking about sending them on Wednesday. Thanks for posting the Hays weather!! (I am bookmarking it so that I can keep an eye on it…my daughter is a manager for the team and will be traveling with them…very concerned parent here!)

  • Winter Storm Warning posted for me in Hays. Over a foot of snow expected.

    My site…. http://www.hayskansasweather.com

  • Kole Christian

    Gary,

    Could you give us seperate snow & sleet predictions?

  • stjoeattorney

    I agree, the slowdown is not good. Strong Northeast wind pulling in dry air will likely keep the snow from falling until 4 or 5 AM Thursday morning. Taking away several hours of snowfall potential, I am not giving up yet, if you read the discussion on KCMO weather service they put me in the deformation band of an additional 2-3 inches which may make up for the cold, dry air starting this on later.

    KCMO has lowered the snowfall, as it were, more sleet versus snow, Topeka weather office has increased all snowfall totals in their discussion, they have not been updated graphically or in forecasts yet. In fact, none of their forecasts have stated amounts yet.

    I suspect the lower we stand in a day!

    • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

      Dew point forecast to be between 20-26 degrees when moisture arrives according to GFS. Worth watching to determine how much moisture falls. But the cold dry air in place will be quickly overrun by the wetness in this storm. If everything holds to form according to the models, time will tell.

      This would mean big fluffy snow which could increase total amounts.

  • weather

    General dryslot may be reporting for duty LOL

  • sedsinkc

    This storm reminds me just a little of the snowstorm of Feb. 5, 2004. In that system, the ULL tracked to the W and NW of KC, but the surface low tracked well south of KC. So even though we had south winds aloft moving the radar echoes from south to north, it stayed all snow. That 2004 storm was an over-achiever, as the night before the predictions were for 2 to 4 inches of snow. But a heavy snow band set up over the city and only slowly moved east during that morning of Feb. 5, so we ended up with 6 to 9 inches across the city before the dry slot arrived.

    • RickMckc

      Good to know that this kind of setup has produced snow before. I’m still confused how a stacked low doesn’t have the surface low under the upper level lows.

    • kcpurpledog

      seds….I remember that storm. I think in parts of OP there were 11 inches of snow. I remember Gary talking about an incredibly strong baroclinic zone that was producing the large amounts of snow. I do remember those radar echoes going straight up the state line. No wrap around, just moisture plume that just kept coming.

  • Sv7Fooster

    Any of the 18z model runs coming out yet?

  • stormstalker

    How will the sleet affect the roadways? If snow falls first, then sleet, is this a less treacherous scenario for the morning commute than if it were all snow? On the other hand, is all sleet less treacherous than all snow? I am in Cass Co. and just unsure about how the various precipitation types affect the roads in different ways. Thanks.

    Kelly

  • HeatMiser

    Gary, I know you said you might not finish your next blog until after six, but how about a quick update on what you’re thinking at this point about snow totals.

  • cjmitch

    Lol rdub, yes it sucks having to get up that early to be @ work by 6am..it’ll be even earlier Thurs morning in case they don’t close the college (jccc)

  • kstatewildcats44

    NWS has some excellent accumulation probability maps at:

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow

    Looks like Topeka has about a 70-80% chance of getting 8+ inches.

  • and if this storm is slowing down. LOL I’m a sub for the Olathe school district and already there are so many teachers putting their requests for subs for thursday/friday. Guess they dont want to drive in the bad weather and think oh we will let the subs do it..

  • weatherkcmo

    Accuweather has been lowering our totals all day lol. Whst are they looking at?

  • cjmitch

    I’m pulling for the extremely unlikely event that we will be closed for two days in a row! :-) since I’ve been there, it’s only happened twice..the ice storm of ’02 and the blizzard/foot of snow in’11.

  • f00dl3

    Latest NAM looks real weak with a line of convective precip and that’s about it.

    • R-Dub

      In that case I take back all the bad things I said about the NAM yesterday…

    • Greenstein

      When in a drought, leave it out!!!

      • mowermike

        Greenstein,

        I’m sure people just use that as an expression. What do you think? There can’t be any truth to it. Case and point: SE MO was in an exceptional drought in August, 6 months later, that area has no drought headlines. Some say it takes years to get out of a drought, not true. Those areas did it in 6 months. You don’t have to make up the amount of moisture you’re lacking, you just need to get back to normal with a good precip. pattern.

        Remember, KC was in the same exceptional drought as was SE MO and points east of there. Rainfall patterns…….they came across a good one. KC is slowly getting into a good one, things will ease as we move through Spring.

        Sorry Greenstein, didn’t mean to go on a rant!!!

    • sedsinkc

      What source are you using? NCEP website only out to hour 33.

  • melafinatu

    Remember the rules for modelitis: don’t get too high on the large amounts of precip, and don’t get too low when the models show Jack Squat.

  • MikeL

    18z NAM is still cranking out the snow as of 51 hrs. Still looks good to me.

  • weatherkcmo

    The beginning of the “poof” cycle for this one.

  • sedsinkc

    New NAM slams KC with lots of snow. ULL track is farther south than on earlier runs.

  • dlphg9

    What are you guys talking about? NAM looks real good still, probably better than earlier

  • weatherkcmo

    Yeah my bad. Realized it was only out to 34hrs when I said that.

  • anshad

    Latest NAM still shows roughly an inch of total precip, with a sliver extending from central Kansas NE just north of St. Joe in the neighborhood of 1-1.25″ of overall precip. Please post maps of the unfavorable trend. I may be looking at this whole thing wrong.

  • weatherkcmo

    Yeah my bad. Realized it was only out to 34hrs when I said that. Hope the trend continues!

  • sedsinkc

    We still have to watch out for the possibility of some sleet in KC that will reduce snow totals, but NAM shows pretty much all snow. Remember GFS had lower precip totals on last run and likely will again on 18z run when it comes out next hour.

    • anshad

      Still, even with the totals that the GFS is spitting out, I can’t complain! Let’s just hope that the models stay relatively consistent.. As long as it isn’t another two inch headache, I will be content. :)

  • UpNorth

    Is this what you guys are looking at?
    http://weather.unisys.com/mos/mos_48h_mw.gif

    Because if it is…I don’t understand how you’re seeing a foot of snow in KC or even N of KC. I suck at reading these things though so help me out here.

  • The U of KC

    Can someone post the link you are using for the new NAM model.

    • sedsinkc

      This link only works with non-IE browsers. “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam_area_param.php?model=nam&cycle=20130219+18+UTC&area=namer”

  • sedsinkc

    NWS Springfield put out graphic showing KC in 8-15″ snowfall zone, but I’d wait and see what our local office says before getting too excited. NWS offices, when they put out these maps, tend to focus on their forecast areas. Those outside areas near the edge of the map tend to be off. “http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=sgf”

  • anshad

    Here’s Total NAM Precipitation… Not Snowfall…

    “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&cycle=18&image=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_060_precip_ptot.gif”

  • weatherkcmo

    That forecast looks a bit unrealistic lol.

  • StormyWX

    I honestly feel as if they’ll (as in everybody in TV) will have to up their snow totals just a little bit. Maybe by an inch or two, but that’s it.

  • McCabe58

    Lol gotta love the negative people on here not wanting it to snow or do anything it seems… We’re in a drought. We need this moisture however we can get it.

  • Andrew

    41 Action News Home Page Updated: Major Accumulations Likely.. 5-10in.. Check It Out!

  • sedsinkc

    My gut is 6-10″ in central KC is a fair bet, more than 10″ NW and N of the city, less than 6″ on south side as more sleet cuts down totals. If GFS ups precip totals from last run, these forecast totals may go up a bit. But I don’t believe that will happen. Have to watch the sleet component. More sleet=less snow. It is tough to pin down precisely how much mixed precip could fall.

  • ChiefsFan

    Is this gonna be like Christmas 2009, for metro kc, I don’t remember how much fell in downtown kc

    • Theo

      If you don’t remember, then why would you make the statement? Should be the epic 200 inch snow drought buster forecast by Mike.

  • ChiefsFan

    Gary will up his totals, for metro kc 6-8

  • The U of KC

    My TWC app just updated on my phone and has me in a 1-3 inch Wednesday night and 6-10 inch Thursday.

  • brucer8774

    WS warning coming out. Low more south and east. See topeka forecast discussion. Higher snow for kc

  • Theo

    Winter Storm Warning issued for KC Metro by NWS.

  • f00dl3

    The initial band of precip is not going to be particularly intense. NAM is really counting on the 2nd wave to be intense. If this does not happen, we may be left with an initial band of snow that drops 1-2″, a period of sleet with maybe 2-3″ of sleet, and then another band of snow with the comma head maybe 1″.

  • shoedog

    Theo, no Warning yet for greater KC, new blog up

  • nofluer

    So… why did my test post appear, butt my posts above did not?