Quantcast

Arctic Air Heads South with Santa!

Good Sunday morning,

The main story for our area this holiday week will be the seemingly endless supply of Arctic air that will be oozing south the next several days.  Wind chills will be near zero on Christmas day!   See Map #1.

We are also tracking two storm systems.  The first system will be rather potent, but track well south of our area on Christmas day.  Oklahoma and Arkansas will have a  “White Christmas”, while we have some holiday flurries.  A second, weaker system will move by on Friday with clouds and perhaps some light snow, but at this time it does not look like much.  We could see some minor accumulation from this system and we will have updates through the week on it.

MAP #1: TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY.

MAP #2: NOON SUNDAY…The Arctic air begins its southward movement with today’s highs 20 degrees colder than Saturday.

,

MAP #3: CHRISTMAS EVE…Lots of clouds and even colder as the Arctic air continues its southward ooze.

MAP #4: CHRISTMAS DAY…A winter storm will track across Oklahoma and Arkansas.  We will have flurries and wind chills near zero.

So, I would say we have enough snow left on the ground to call it a “White Christmas” and we may even have a few snowflakes on Tuesday.

Have a Merry Christmas and stay warm!

Jeff Penner

 

Share and Enjoy:
  • Print
  • Digg
  • StumbleUpon
  • del.icio.us
  • Facebook
  • Yahoo! Buzz
  • Twitter
  • Google Bookmarks

83 comments to Arctic Air Heads South with Santa!

  • MikeL

    The 12z NAM shifted the heavy snow track northward along I-44 and touching extreme southern Kansas. Start of a northward trend? :)

  • davidmcg

    very high potential for severe weather along the gulf coast states Christmas Day.

  • Freeze Miser

    Keep that snow heading north! I certainly don’t want a repeat of the blizzard Christmas but a few inches, light winds, and some sunshine would be memorable.

  • fire508

    Latest GFS 12z(only up to hr 102) is also showing this. Both give the KC metro precip. More than flurries, but less then what we got last time… Hmmm.

  • heavysnow

    The 12z NAM is just trying to tease me here in the St Louis area

    • mattmaisch

      For sure.. That model shows a classic I-44 storm with massive snowfall totals along that route.. Hoping for the northward trend to continue on this end!

  • Lolapaws

    Long-time blog reader, first-time poster! Hoping someone will be able to help me with travel plans since I see this storm is now developing over SWMO. I’m in Springfield, MO right now, and I’m planning on driving back to KC Christmas Day. Any idea how much snow we are currently expected to receive down here? The mets down here aren’t really saying anything… Based on the map you’ve posted, it looks like the drive back might be kind of messy. Any thoughts on the best time to leave to avoid any headaches on the drive home? Thanks!

  • McCabe58

    With this slight northward trend, would that mean maybe an inch here guys or are we still looking at flurries?

    • Kcchamps

      it would still need come a little further more north for us to get any accumulations. maybe its a trend though! :)

  • Adam Penney

    Ugh. So close, yet so far. Such a bumber..

    • mattmaisch

      Close enough to keep the models interesting for the rest of today anyway. This thing still has a chance, but we need to see some movement, and soon.

  • Freeze Miser

    Don’t give up hope Adam!

  • Bananny

    I have no hope for anything more than flurries on Christmas day. I am already looking at the end of the week storm.

  • Adam Penney

    I will be SHOCKED if we get any more than flurries from this storm.

    The writing has been on the wall with this storm for days going well to the south. If we were to get anything of great significance from this storm, it will have been an epic fail by the models.

    • mattmaisch

      Agreed, but with that said, we know it certainly would not be the first epic fail we’ve seen from the models though.

  • McCabe58

    I wish you could “like” comments on the blog lol, nor losing hope yet! I wouldn’t mind flurries on Christmas though!

  • redavis

    I was looking at the 72 hour snowfall maps for the different computer models effective Dec 26th. The one below shifts the storm track further north. I live near Jefferson City, MO so this model got me a little excited since it brings accumulating snow northward. Does anyone buy this or think there is even a remote chance this could happen?? Almost all the other models show the accumulating snow down south in the ozarks & bootheel area. See link below for NAM snowfall map. Thanks

    http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_72HR.gif

  • Freeze Miser

    I have not lost hope in a pretty snowfall for Christmas.

  • mattmaisch

    Early trends on the 18Z NAM are slightly further north and west. Only through 27 hours right now though.

  • Adam Penney

    Whoa boy. 18z NAM again further north.

  • RickMckc

    In the for what it’s worth department … looking at the 12z GFS, it shows a total of .3″ of moisture between the two systems this week. At the forecasted temps (especially the 850MB temps) it would not be out of the question to see a 20:1 ratio … or 6″ of light fluffy snow.

  • f00dl3

    When in doubt, look outside. It’s 37 degrees right now. Our forecast high when I checked yesterday was for 28 degrees today. I think it’s obvious the surface features will set up much further north. Will it be close enough for us to get significant snow, though?

    • mattmaisch

      More promising than it was at least. Keep in mind though, the temps never reached freezing at the airport. We were just barely south of the colder air in most of the city.

    • Kcchamps

      maybe the models are starting to and will continue to pick up on that :)

  • Adam Penney

    I’ve been at arrowhead today. Seemed much nicer than I was anticipating today(weather wise anyway…lol)

  • heavysnow

    Stop teasing me NAM! I live in St Louis Suburbs now and the last 2 runs are trying to make me believe in a Festivus Miracle

  • stjoeattorney

    only made it to 27 and alot of old snow still hee. if it trends north .05 inches of qfp will dropp down another inch. NWS should be issuinn new forcast soon will see if top or sprin issue winter storm watches an how far north

  • mattmaisch

    18Z GFS also with a slight trend north and westward.

  • f00dl3

    ECMWF shows it’s weakness in situations like this as far as it comes to forecast hours – unless I’m missing something, it only charts out on 24 hours interveals, 24/48/72/96/etc – nothing plotting the track at 54, 60, 66. Makes the storm look like it moves due east – though I know it probably digs more than that. Blah!

  • heavysnow

    I beginning to think I might finally see some significant snow in STL

  • McCabe58

    Are there any maps you could post? Still pretty dumb when it comes to finding maps I can actually understand :(

    • Kcchamps

      here is the latest 18z NAM snow map

      “http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

      look how close the SNOW is! :)

  • Adam Penney

    Still very large differences in GFS and NAM. SREF had previously buried Little Rock, now dumps in on Springfield.

    18z NAM has heavy snow now up through Nevada and up to Clinton. Interesting trends today.

  • weatherman brad

    I would be shocked of this system heads in a more northery trend, we will see though we only got two da to see what and how the models do with this storm.

    brad

  • heavysnow

    SREF also giving I-44 and St. Louis big snow

  • Henley

    Man, talking about modelitis….this is the worst I’ve seen on here in quite a while

  • is that model you posted kcchamps for the christmas day storm or later in the week? im confused how to know what date these are for

    • thomasmidwest

      Thats for christmas day storm

    • RickMckc

      If you look at the top of that particular map, it shows that the run covers an 84 hour period beginning at 18z (or noon) today.

      So, the map represents the total amount of snow currently being forecast by the NAM (a not-so-dumb set of mathematical equations) from this afternoon through 6pm Wednesday evening.

  • lsx347

    seems all the storms end up going north vs what the models predict…will we get lucky?

  • Kcchamps

    “http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EAX&issuedby=EAX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1″

    here is the latest NWS forecast advisory, looks like they are also paying attention to the more northward treand

  • Adam Penney

    It’s still very doubtful we get another 80-100 mile swing northward in the models over the next 24-36 hours.

    I still stand by my stance that this will miss is to the south. I will hope that I’m wrong…lol

  • Adam Penney

    EAX forecast discussion does note a northward trend, but are still calling for only occasional flurries for the majority of the area on Christmas.

    • Hey bloggers,

      The system will be coming onshore in the next 12 hours or so. The thing to watch will be to see if the digging can happen a bit slower. This would keep the northward trend going. It will be fun to look at the models the next few runs. And, the end of the week system takes a good track, but we are being overwhelmed by cold air. I will go over the details in the morning and Jeff will have an update at 10 PM tonight.

      • Kcchamps

        Gary,

        If the Northward trend does continue, would there be a good or better chance of a Snowstorm in the metro??

  • Adam Penney

    Oh I hear ya Matt. I would love NOTHING more than to be wrong. I really wanted this storm.

    It’s just so tough to get those big snows around here. At this point, I’d be happy if we could catch the edge of the deformation band and get a few inches of snow. Anxiously awaiting the 0z NAM.

    I believe the 0z model suite this evening will have a full sampling of this storm for the first time.

  • Adam Penney

    Ok…as Gary pointed out, maybe it’s the 12z models tomorrow that will have the full sampling.

  • mattmaisch

    Next 3 runs of each of the models will be interesting to watch that’s for sure. Still hoping for a big shift north. Not giving up yet.

  • McCabe58

    That latest map champs posted gave me close to 2″ here in phill

  • Skylar

    The northward trend is almost worse then no snow at all; the last thing I want on Christmas is to be watching the snow creeping closer and closer on the radar only to stop one or two counties south of me before moving east. Because this is Kansas City, and that’s what has to happen.

    • mattmaisch

      Certainly isn’t what happened 3 years ago on Christmas.. Sure didn’t happen on February 1st of 2011 either.. Just saying.

      • Skylar

        I’d be thrilled to be wrong! :D But if you start in March 2009 and go backward, that scenario accounts for the majority of the big systems that come near KC in the winter.

  • mattmaisch

    Further evidence… This morning the NWS office in Memphis was calling for a major winter storm with 4-8″ amounts across the area. Tonight, they have downgraded that to 1-3″. Not cause this storm is weakening either.. Pushing north, pushing north.

  • Adam Penney

    Good point Matt, hadn’t thought about that. Christmas 2009 came upon us late as well..

    • mattmaisch

      They did wobble a bit in the 36 hours leading up to the storm, but they really did a pretty good job on that storm. Gave us a few scares as we approached the onset, but it performed as advertised. Like this storm, the GFS indicated that storm from the very beginning. This one has been a little more finicky, with it doing its disappearing act last week a few times, and the uncertainties in the track, but the presence of a storm in this part of the country has been pretty consistent. Now, let’s hope it’s digging in nice and slow!

  • MikeL

    The next few sets of model runs will be interesting beginning with this evening’s 00z set. I seen the models shift storms from our area to the Dakotas and Minnesota at the last minute so anything is possible. :)

  • sportsfreaked

    Ho Ho Ho let it snow. Merry Christmas to everyone. Should be a great game tonight! Hope it’s better then the 2 that were on today!

  • can someone expain the numbering system in the model times, 0z, 12z, etc..sorry Im blonde here:)

    • mattmaisch

      Several of the models come out 4 times daily. 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z. This time of the year outside of daylight savings time, the difference is 6 hours. We are 6 hours behind number on the data set, which correlates with GST in England. For example, the 00Z data will be for 6:00 PM in our area. There is a delay in their release though, and the two primary models that many of us reference are the GFS and the NAM. The NAM comes out around 2:00 AM/PM and 8:00 AM/PM. The GFS is around 9:30 AM/PM and 3:30 AM/PM. Hope this helps.

      Matt

  • believe it or not i took a semester of meterology in college but that was 35 year ago lol

  • thomasmidwest

    Nam coming out now hopefully a more north trend continues

  • kellyinkc

    what are they talking about here?”http://www.farmersalmanac.com/forum/2012/12/22/posted-by-andrew-of-the-weather-centre-possible-collapse-of-the-polar-vortex/”

  • restull

    I will definitely pay attention to this forecast.

  • f00dl3

    NAM further south again.

  • Adam Penney

    Well, that was fun…lol. 0z NAM makes the jump back to the south.

  • f00dl3

    It’s Kansas City, what do you expect. 2009/10, 2010/11 were flukes.

  • MikeL

    lol…it takes a near miracle to get a heavy snow track along the I-35 or I-70 corridors in east-KS/west-MO. The only question for most winters storms is are they going to pass us to the north or south. Sheesh…

  • mattmaisch

    00Z NAM = No Bueno!!

  • mattmaisch

    Here’s the thing though.. The storm is still just offshore. This particular run isn’t any more definitive than the others. Point being, the 12Z runs tomorrow are really where we will sink or swim on this storm. Anything prior to that still won’t have a great grip on things. If tomorrow’s 12Z runs keep the storm off to the south, then we probably lose hope on this one, but not until.

  • Freeze Miser

    It ain’t over until the fat lady, er, tall guy sings. I’ll be happy with whatever we get though.

  • interestingly weather.com has 30% chance of snow for Christmas day, at least for southside of KC. And did you hear what they are naming this next winter storm..Euclid?? crazy where do they come up with that

    • mattmaisch

      Not sure about the names, but it’s like hurricanes, alphabetical and all. As far as the 30% chance of snow, I’m not sure how interesting it is I guess. Gary and his team have a 60% chance of snow on Tuesday. That said, 00Z GFS looked pretty trashy, much like the 00Z NAM. Not good.

  • heavysnow

    GFS is the only one actings strange on this storm…..still gives me snow in STL but takes a very weird path

  • heavysnow

    NAM has produced at least 8 inches of snow in my area of St Louis on 5 straight model runs

  • McCabe58

    So what’s up with the 60% Gary had on Tuesday?… Is that for flurries? Lol….