Anticipation Is Building: 100% Chance Of Snow

Afternoon Update:


Look at this large area of snow at around 1:30 PM.  How long has it been since we experienced anything like this? Now, we have some things to accomplish; 1) The ending of the snowflake contest on November 8th this year, and 2)  Getting three inches to accumulate to end an almost five year streak. The latter may be tough, as the first inch will melt and won’t count.  I still think we will end up with 1 to 3 inches on grassy surfaces, and 1″ or less on untreated pavement surfaces before this ends.  So, the snowflake contest is almost 100% certain to end this evening.  I am at work, just wanted to provide this update.  We will keep you updated on Facebook, twitter, and 41 Action News. I will try to update the blog later!

Previous entry below:

Good morning bloggers,

There is a 100% chance of snow today!  Some spots may go over 2″ and approach 3 or 4 inches by midnight tonight.  Remember, it has now been almost five years since we had three inches of snow in one storm.  This streak most likely will continue after today, as it would have to fall at KCI Airport for that streak to continue.  We finally have some evidence of a bit more organization to this fast moving upper level storm today.


A few model runs have come in showing this main disturbance strengthening as it tracks across southern Kansas later today and tonight.  Do you know what PVA is?  PVA is Positive Vorticity Advection, and notice the colors around the X.  Vorticity is increasing from Kansas City into that X with a channel of PVA targeting our area later today and this evening. This is valid at 9 PM and between 6 PM and 9 PM is when we should get the most influence from this wave, and it may last all the way up until around midnight.  This is why the amounts have come up on some of the models again.  The European Model was the last model to come back into focus with snowfall, and the only reason that model had less, is that it has it near 41 degrees this afternoon.  The profile of the lower atmosphere is below freezing all the way up the morning. By this afternoon there will be a very thin layer of above 32° air near the surface.  The precipitation may start as rain, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it starts as mostly snow, unless it does surge to near 40.  The surface temperatures are something to monitor.

Snowfall Forecast:





There is likely going to be a band of heavier amounts along the path of that X, the “Vort Max”.  Exactly where that location will be is still being monitored, seemingly targeting the south KC metro area. This could be in a different position, however, so let’s see if it begins showing up around 6 PM.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Now-Noon:  Increasing clouds. It will stay dry.  High: 38°
  • Noon-3 PM:  Cloudy with rain, snow, or a mixture of precipitation developing and increasing from west to east.  It will be staying west of the state line until around 2 or 3 PM.  Temperatures in the middle to upper 30s
  • 3 PM-6 PM:  The mixture changes to snow and begins accumulating on grassy surfaces.  Temperatures dropping a few degrees but staying just above 32°. The roads will be wet and not slick yet, unless the snow begins coming down hard.
  • 6 PM-midnight:  Snow likely with a 1 to 2 inches likely. A few spots may get a bit more. Slick and hazardous conditions are possible as temperatures begin dropping to below freezing
  • Friday:  A few snow showers or graupel showers are possible.  Temperatures rising to a bit above freezing, then dropping Friday night into Saturday morning into the teens. Some slick spots are likely

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Click here to join in the conversation on the Weather2020 blog:  Weather2020 blog

Have a great day.  Watch 41 Action News as we keep you updated.  The snowflake contest will likely end this evening.


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