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Storm Recap & Another Storm!

Good morning bloggers, It’s Friday!

I am still recovering from the past 48 hours and I am a bit slow this morning.  I had no sleep two nights ago, but I did get caught up last night.  Yesterday was one of the more memorable weather days in my entire life. I have experienced many major storm systems in my life, many of them in Southern California during big winters in 1978 and 1979 when a series of powerful storm systems hit Los Angeles.  But, yesterday’s snowfall intensity for the four hours that it blasted across our viewing area is one of the more memorable for a few reasons.

Major Snowstorm Slams The KC Metro Area:

  • Thunderstorms with snow produced lightning and thunder and tremendous snowfall rates
  • The snowfall rate likely came close to 4 inches per hour few a few minutes at a time, with 2 to 3 inch snowfall rates for four consecutive hours
  • The bulls eye was right over the south side of the KC metro area
  • I measured one foot in front of KSHB-TV at 4720 Oak Street

It had to be scary for many people who had to abandon their cars on the highways when they got stuck.  The snow came down so hard and so fast that close to ten inches of snow, and drifts up to 15 or 20 inches of snow, caused vehicles to get stuck.  There are a lot of good samaritans who helped out all over the city.

Here is the winter storm summary from the National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill:

1

Click on: Winter Storm Blasts Region for the National Weather Services summary of this storm system.  And, I would like to thank all of you, the bloggers, for the reports and information you shared with 41 Action News during this storm system. I was able to use your information and it was nice to share this weather experience in such a positive way with all of you.

Okay, let’s move on to the next storm!  It is like a week away right……NOPE, it is less than three days away. The next storm system will be digging into the Rocky Mountains this weekend and most of the computer models have been developing a major winter storm centered near Kansas City again.  Let’s look at this morning’s NAM model:

2This map (click on it for a larger view) shows the energy that will begin the carving out of our next potential storm system. This is a very strong jet stream coming across the eastern Pacific to just off the Washington and Oregon coast this evening. It will go through a major transition as it comes across the Pacific Northwest coast tonight and Saturday and begin diving south over the southern Rocky Mountain states.  What happens to this energy between now and Sunday morning will be extremely important to how we are affected by Monday.  Everything is pointing towards this being another impacting storm system.

Take a look at what happens with this energy by Monday morning:

3The energy dives over the Rocky Mountains and carves out this powerful storm system. The map on the right shows the upper low forming over northeastern Oklahoma. If it forms in this area Kansas City will be in the perfect spot for a snowstorm, potentially bigger and more intense than the storm we just experienced. This would create near blizzard conditions over our viewing area with major accumulations of snow.   Now, let’s remember that this storm, just like the last one as it came into the west coast, doesn’t exist at the moment. It will form as it moves over Colorado and New Mexico. Confidence is somewhat high that we will be impacted by this storm system again.

Let’s take a deep breath today and see how the models trend. I will be working out the details and coming up with a good way to describe this on 41 Action News tonight.  Our weather team will keep you updated over the weekend.

 

And, does anyone have any ideas on how to find spots for the dogs? Here are Breezy and Stormy trying to find someplace to go.  Have a great day!

4

Have a great morning. I will update the blog again sometime this evening as time permits. Right now I am going to get to the gym and get my workout in! Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Let us know if you have any questions/thoughts.

Gary

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189 comments to Storm Recap & Another Storm!

  • HeatMiser

    Woo hoo! Awesome snowstorm! Bring on the next. I triple dog dare you Old Man Winter!

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Ohhh yea. Ready to track another.

    Seems the track of this storm is a tug of war between the GFS and the rest. I like the NAM track but the GFS makes sense for our weather pattern prior to the last snow storm.

    Will the GFS come in line? Guess we will see. Had a lot of fun tracking and watching the last storm unfold.

  • ginapuff

    Just now able to post my total but I got 12.5 inches at my house in Gardner. Experienced several rounds of thundersnow yesterday. Took me 1.5 hours to get into downtown KC this morning!

  • Skylar

    “GFS is more progressive with the upper low and
    produces the highest QPF much further north over NE/IA. At this
    point the GFS is an outlier and seems to be trending closer to the
    GEM/ECMWF, so a more southward track seems more probable at this
    point.”

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Ohhh, and I will be the first to admit I was wrong in saying no snow in February and temps not below freezing as the high. I am gla I was wrong

  • davidmcg

    NWS Topeka is forecasting 4.5″ in the next storm for the McLouth area.

  • HeatMiser

    Oh yeah, and I basically called Old Man Winter a wuss and a looser about a week ago. He manned up and met the challenge yesterday, so I retract my earlier comments. Well done Old Man, well played!

  • farmingnolkes

    Get 4 to 6 more an some wind there won’t be an place to put the snow but ill take it

  • blue8091

    Gary & Weather Team – thank you for working such long hours this week so that you could keep us all updated and informed. I last saw you on the news at 10:30p and here you are posting around 8am – 9.5 hours later – with the drive home, I’m thinking there is no way you got caught up on rest sir! Here’s to wishing you a big nap today and a Saturday in your sweats with Stormy & Breezy – many naps and a long sleep before the next round hits! Thanks for all of the hard work these last few days! Awesome forecasting!

  • hushpook

    Professor Lezak,

    You da man.

    The rest of the meteorological community in this town forms a line that starts way behind you. I hope KSHB keeps you very happy. Weather can be deadly, and this town needs someone who knows what the hell is going to happen.

    Keep up the OUTSTANDING work!

  • Farmgirl

    We appreciated the indepth weather coverage and the types of precip that may have occured with the storm. We got all three as forecasted down south. DIdn’t get much sleet so our snow totals were a bit higher than I wanted. :) Ended up with 10 inches north of La Cygne.

    That little bit of freezing drizzle last night makes for snow that can almost by walked upon! My little rat terrier can make it across the snow crust before he kerplunks into a huge drift. Pretty entertaining!

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    NAM is painting another 4-6 inches from manhattan to the metro
    “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=1000_500_thick&cycle=12&image=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_066_1000_500_thick.gif”

  • Meir

    New nam is looking like 10-14inch.

    • allietag

      10-14 inches??? I’ll be the first to admit that our 9.5 inches disappointed me a bit. I’m not sure exactly what I wanted but it must’ve been more!
      Now, looking at 10-14 on top of 9.5 seems a bit much even for me. I am hoping for more snow as each snowflake came down I was counting blades of hay growing for my horses. We sure need it!!

  • HeatMiser

    Another major winter storm for our area? Heh heh, cool!

  • MikeL

    The 12z NAM continues a steady shift to the south. IF this trend continues the storm will miss our area to the south. Once again…just looking at the NAM model.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    This low has a flat track once leaving panhandle. Doesn’t keep us in moisture for more than 6-9 hours. At least no dry slot lol

  • HeatMiser

    Thank you sir, may I have another?

  • RickMckc

    As Gary said, ’tis early but …

    06z NAM =
    “http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif”

    06z GFS =
    “http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_96HR.gif”

    NWS says GFS is an outlier (as Skylar posted above).

  • HeatMiser

    OMG, mabye bigger and more intense and a blizzard? :-O

  • R-Dub

    Very different from this last storm: all the models were in pretty good agreement with the last one. Lots of differences on this one. Hope the southward trend continues, we don’t need another day when the city is shut down so soon after the last one.

    • RickMckc

      12z NAM does look like a bit more to the south …

      “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022212&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084″

  • weather

    Nope this one will go *poof*. It worked last time when we said *poof* so why not try it again. *POOF*

  • HeatMiser

    :-/ –> :-S –> >:-(

    Did…someone…just say…the “p” word…grrrrrrrr

  • partyon

    Gary,
    If you shovel out a 10 X 10 square in the yard, leaving maybe an inch or two of snow, the dogs will tend to go there. really need to shovel just enough to keep their tush from touching the snow.

    • spaceotter

      I was about to type that I used to shovel out areas I remember my dog using that way there was somewhere to go and he had some choice.

  • JJ

    Here we go again.

  • mattmaisch

    This would really be something. 12Z NAM looks very impressive. Could this really happen??? Wow!

  • zimbokc

    Gary your posts have been superb the last week, keep it up!

  • yewtrees

    NWS meteorologist Spencer Mell said that “the next possible storm may arrive Sunday night. The conditions it will bring remain uncertain, but for now it appears it will be a mix of rain and snow that is unlikely to accumulate.”

  • spaceotter

    I think yesterday’s snow fed my snow hunger. I’m just ready for spring storm season now. Guess I could live with another snowstorm though, what the heck it will be awhile before this snow is gone anyway.

  • nofluer

    RE : LRC

    I don’t know how many of you have popped in to “Weather 2020″, Mr Lezak’s LRC interactive site. Just a note – I don’t know when he posted these long range forecasts, but he missed the rain we had on the 7th by only a couple of days, and this big storm by only a week. Not bad shootin’ if you ask me!

    Good job, Gary Lezak! Good job!

  • HeatMiser

    yewtrees..forever the pessimist

  • Cacti51

    If the next storm comes to pass and we get walloped with another 12+ that would be a snow lovers dream! I have never seen 24+ inches total on the ground at a time. Won’t get to excited yet though.

  • yewtrees

    KCI Airport officially measured 9.2 inches of snow — a new record snowfall for Feb. 21. However, the Thursday storm failed to set a record for the most snowfall in February. It came in as the fifth highest for the month.

    Top 5 February Snowfalls for Kansas City
    Rank Inches Date
    1 11.8 Feb. 27, 1900
    2 10.5 Feb.,25, 1993
    3 9.8 Feb. 18, 1926
    4 9.5 Feb. 25, 1912
    5 9.2 Feb. 21, 2013

    Source: National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill, Mo.

    • Dwight

      How do those measurements have anything to do with contemporary records? THe first measurement taken at KCI woudl have been 1993.

  • weatherkcmo

    Yeah the chances of another one panning is slim. Let’s be honest, that NEVER happens here. It’s always one or the other.

    • HeatMiser

      NOt necessarily, if the jet stream and other conditions are similar, two storms back to back could follow the same general route. This one could be a blizzard…the only thing the last storm lacked was high winds. I think a good blizzard is what we need.

  • legdziner

    We have a poodle and a cairne terrier. I shoveled out a path from our deck to a small spot in the yard. Olathe kansas

  • Skylar

    The only benefit we’d get from another snowstorm is having to shovel all over again. Plus, this snowstorm ended up pretty far south of where the models had been indicating even just a few days out; it looked like Omaha would be getting what we got until about 36 hours before. As rare as it is to get 10-12″ in KC, to have that happen twice in less than a week is even more rare. I hate to be the pessimist, but if you like snow, I wouldn’t be getting your hopes up for anything more than an inch or two.

    • mattmaisch

      Fair points, but there’s no science involved in that. I agree with you that nobody should be shocked if this thing doesn’t come to fruition, but that doesn’t mean that all of a sudden, because of yesterday’s unusual storm system, that we should simply discount what the computers are saying for the next storm. Would it be rare if it happened? No question, but the fact is, weather doesn’t care about rare. Just my thoughts though..

      • Skylar

        Yes, I completely agree. Downplaying “because it’s KC” is pretty lazy forecasting IMO. I just don’t think people should expect us to suddenly be getting large snowstorms again just because we got one yesterday.

        • mattmaisch

          It would be remarkable if it happened. I’m with you, it is hard to imagine though. It seems like it’s so hard to get one storm to come through for us. Hoping for 2 in 5 days almost seems a little selfish! Could happen though.

    • HeatMiser

      Skylar is too pessimistic…are you still not a believer in Gary. He said just said everything is pointing towards this being another impacting storm.

  • HeatMiser

    bring it on

  • weatherkcmo

    I agree Skylar. It is highly unlikely.

    • HeatMiser

      I think if anything, it’s much more likely to have back to back big storms within a few days of each other. Conditions could still be similar, as well as steering currents.

  • trinlivco

    Hope we get the 2nd storm. It might be like it was back in the winter of 80 and 81 here in the Chillicothe area. We had the governor active the National Guard(combat Engr.) from south Missouri stay at our Armory both winters because of all the snow we had those winters. They used thier heavy equip. to open all our county and state roads. Now that was alot of snow. This storm was the norm those two winters. I realize lots of people were not around then but this just shows you what mother nature can do. Just hope she does it again. TR

  • mattmaisch

    12Z GFS more in line with the track. Here is the latest SREF.

    “http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20130222&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=MKC&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=6&mLAT=38.43181104931222&mLON=-93.933521875&mTYP=roadmap”

  • pkhartz

    Our family laughed that we all had the thought at some point that “I bet Gary is in heaven with this storm”. My husband is trying to fly home from Texas. I can hardly wait to hear the stories of them trying to find their cars at the airport. I know there were problems for many people but it beautiful outside. LOVE THE SNOW

  • SouthOlatheGraham

    http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX
    Showing 12-14 inches of snow for Kansas City area on the next possible snow storm

  • weatherkcmo

    Yeah I agree with both of you on that lol. I understand there’s no science behind my reasoning. Just a little pessimistic. The track does look favorable but for now I’m just not going to expect a monster snowstorm three days out.

  • weatherkcmo

    They should start issuing WSW now!

  • HeatMiser

    BLIZZARD! BLIZZARD!

    Hey second storm! The first storm that just came thru there said you are a wimp and a momma’s storm. Are you gonna let him get away with that? Prove him wrong and show everybody what you’re made of!

    • kcpurpledog

      Good one. I like this idea. Lets (within reason and not over the line) totally disrespect this storm we just had in hopes it really fires up the one coming!!!! Hey second storm….My dad can beat up your dad! Signed 1st storm.

    • PaolaWeatherNewbie

      “momma’s storm”! Hilarious!

  • weatherkcmo

    I hope that’s what mother nature is telling winter storm Rocky(TWC with another great name).

  • MikeL

    In February 2004, here in Topeka we had two 6-inch snow storms only a few days apart that totaled 13.3 inches(I don’t have the exact dates) so it’s not impossible to have this next storm. Not saying we will or we won’t…

  • JohnP

    The way it looks now – specifically the temperature – it looks more like a rain producing storm with some light snow but negligible accumulation.

    John P.

  • nofluer

    Addition to yesterday’s moisture from overnight snow/sleet/whatever = .1″ (probably about an inch of snow.) I called for 6″ or less – got about 5″ yesterday, plus the overnight inch = exactly 6″ of snow. Yea me! ;-D

    Moisture receipt for the whole storm was .55″

  • hrbrbldrs

    I know some think it is rare to get back to back storms but hello 2011 Jan 10 KCI over 7 ” then 10 days later again over. 7″ then another 11 days later over 8″. I understand different pattern and 10 days apart but those were 3 storms back to back to back and we also know how accurate KCI totals are (not). Usually not always I can take what they say and add and inch in Leavenworth at least. So just as many said this last storm was a no way well you just never know. As many have stated yet with all the technology weather forecasting is still a very tough job that most of us would fail at. Good job to all weather people!!!!

  • hrbrbldrs

    Love is kcpurpledog

  • KCWeather

    Any new maps out yet?

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    The 12z EMCWF shows the low tracking south pretty much along southern MO border.

    • mwnavyvet

      is that bullish for more snow then?

      • Skylar

        It’s pretty much the perfect track for snow in KC, it just needs to stay there now :)

      • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

        If it stays on this track with the moisture totals of 1.1 then yes, bullish on snow storm, my issue is surface temperature at onset may be above freezing based on models but should rapidly drop below freezing.

        Just a mix of issues and waiting to see new GFS later on

  • yogiscout

    I noticed that the totals across the Metro seemed to be in the 10-13 inch range. However, in our front yard in Gladstone, I measured 15.5 inches in 5 separate locations, and did the same in the yard of the neighbor to the west, only to see the same consistency. Has anyone else in the Northland see this type of measurement? To be precise, I then took a meter stick and checked how many centimeters we had, and it showed just a shade under 39 and a half (cm to inches = right at 15.5 inches) which means that my readings are accurate.

    • kcpurpledog

      I live in OP. That would surprise me given what I have read from people and the newscasts. The south side definitely got more snow this go around. Not saying you are inaccurate, it just doesn’t seem to jive with what has been reported elsewhere, but there certainly can be little pockets where it is heavier than just a few miles down the road.

  • yogiscout

    Sorry: “seen” – not “see”; can’t tell that my BS is in Journalism.

  • HeatMiser

    Wow, Rocky is a great name for a storm. Okay, common Rocky, you can do it. Get up Rocky, you can take this punk. Q is just a punk Rocky, you can put him down. What was that you said Rocky, say it again?

    “aaaAAAADRIANNNNNN!”

  • Dwight

    Has anyone compared the total snowfall map above with any of the models 1, 2 or 3 days before yesterday’s storm to see which one came closest to accurately predicting the total accumulation and location?

    • RickMckc

      Just looked at the KCI 3-day history. The liquid precip total was .67, which is almost exactly what the GFS was forecasting from about 24 hours before the event. JoCo airport totals are almost identical.

      “http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KMCI.html”

  • Kole Christian

    Will poof work a second time? Poof!

  • LibertyJeff

    When we lived in Iowa, I used to take the snowblower in the yard and make a big T for the dog to go. Since the snow rarely melts there I would have to go out after every snow and clear the path!

    For everyone who thinks this storm will not materialize, keep in mind we have snow pack which will help to keep the atmosphere cooler for precip. Look at how the storms in the NE continued to add snow one after another. Growing up in Ohio I saw the same thing, very little precip until the first big one and then they kept coming.

  • Seems to me like it’s Kansas City’s time for more top 5 records to be broken…The last 12 months has a been a whirlwind….no pun intended. Shaping up to be a memorable year for weather.

  • sedsinkc

    One thing about yesterday’s storm is that the models had a lot of general consistency even several days out on a major snowstorm in the middle plains and close to us, if not on top of us. This one not so much until today, but we’re only 3 days away now so if the 12z consistency that was developing across the models continues from here on and today’s forecast track stays the same, it’s “here we go again.” Only this time with more wind. Nice. I’m going to hold on to the chance that the southward trend in the models continues and this storm mostly stays south of us and maxes out to our east or southeast.

    Yesterday’s 9.8 inches was the 2nd largest 1 day snowfall I’ve witnessed in KC in 19 years here, and easily the most rapid accumulation. KCI and much of the area did end up with more snow in 1 day than the entirely of last winter plus this winter before yesterday combined! Remarkable.

  • weatherkcmo

    TWC is saying 4-8″ for now. Not as potent as the last one.

  • Kole Christian

    Poof

  • Tim

    Don’t like the fact a competitor station (who put out 22″-24″ predictions for our last storm) is now putting out 2″-3″ predictions for Monday’s storm….is this a bad omen???

    • Kole Christian

      Too much and too little.

    • StormyWX

      How would that be a bad omen? Because they forecast so much and they were off by nearly a foot, meaning that their forecast of 2-3″ would equal 0″? Lol. I never even saw anyone forecast anything anywhere close to that, so this is the first time that I’m hearing of that. Not saying that I don’t believe you though.

    • HeatMiser

      What, a local competitor? I was watching them all I think and I didn’t see any of them saying that? TWC did, but they aren’t local so they aren’t a competitor.

      • Tim

        They ran a model (online) which put like 2 to 3 inches on our map. I love snow so if they are forecasting 2 to 3 inches that would equate to “0” (Like Stormy said) in reality and that stinks!

        • Tim

          They still have it on their website at the tail end of his video-cast…I’m not liking the rain/snow mixture talk. That would mean less snow on Monday. Come on lower temps and more moisture!

  • OlatheMatt

    which computer model was the most accurate with this storm on Thursday?

  • StormyWX

    So based on what we’ve seen so far in the model trends, the certainty of yet another winter storm (although not as severe, still producing a lot of snow though) seems more and more likely?

    That’s the conclusion I’ve been coming down to at least.

  • weatherkcmo

    The new NAM should be out.

  • Kole Christian

    Weatherkcmo,

    What’s it saying.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Yea. Latest NAM has this one missing us to the south. Not as strong. Time will tell as we get closer and storm finishes materializing in the west coast.

  • sedsinkc

    New NAM continues southward trend of Monday’s storm. Now has worst down around KS/OK and MO/AR borders.

  • sedsinkc

    NAM still putting out over 2 inches of liquid along SE KS and NE OK border.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    This one is not even going to whimper into KC area. Looks like a no-show for us.

  • weatherkcmo

    Back to reality!

  • sedsinkc

    NAM has storm turning the corner and slamming Saint Louis.

  • weatherkcmo

    Enjoy what you have on the ground. New NAM doesn’t give us anything.

    • Kcchamps

      “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022218&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084″

      actually the new NAM would give us 3-4″ with the heavier snow further south

  • WeatherNerd

    Last 4 Runs have been all over the place. The ULL track is still close to giving KC another big storm. Wouldn’t write this one off just yet, but I am also glad I don’t have to forecast this one…

  • PaolaWeatherNewbie

    This storm is moving a lot faster than the last one though too right? The models had an opportunity to have that consistency several days out with the slower movement… Not that I know much about the weather, just what I read on the blog. With this storm moving so much faster, wouldn’t it be harder to determine what Rocky would do in comparison to Q?

    For some of the others wondering about snow totals being so different… Paola, small as it is had some big swings between east side and west side of town. Just under three miles as the crow flies between my house and where the folks live, I had 8.5″ (west side) total and they had 14″ (east side).

  • weatherkcmo

    It’s southward trend is not very promising though. Sedsinkc is right, its trending southward, which doesn’t bode well for snow.

    • HeatMiser

      So each of the three times in the next two days that it trends north, say that it bodes well for snow, and each of the three times it trends south, say it doesn’t bode well for snow. LoL

  • weatherkcmo

    Expecting the GFS to do something similar.

    • Skylar

      Well, the last GFS had it in Nebraska so that would be a pretty big shift for it to suddenly go south of us.

  • Kcchamps

    “http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif”

    latest NAM snow map shows 2-4″ for the metro with much heavier amounts to the south and west

  • precipitationpaul

    It’ll be interesting to see what the 18z GFS spits out.

  • HeatMiser

    Some of you guys crack me up. This morning, “the trends are looking good for KC to get lots of snow”, a few hours later, “no snow for you, enjoy what’s on the ground. Trend is to south, we’re done.” LoL, are you kidding me? Have you learned nothing? The models 2 1/2 days early can trend up down left, right, and back down again before it gets here if it wants to. Take a chill pill and knock of the silly, dramatic doomsday stuff.

    The Heatmiser has spoken

    • smiley10

      It is pretty funny that we’re agonizing over a storm that doesn’t even exist yet.

      • Twistersis

        I’m just excited about the possibility of more moisture. The tree services are going to be busy in the spring. There are a lot of dying or dead trees out there because of the drought.

  • weatherkcmo

    I will say that that it bodes well if it trends north because more northern track=more snow here. With the last storm the models were fairly consistent even five days out. This one has kind of been all over the place.

  • sticks435

    Latest GFS is processing now, should be done by 4.

  • HeatMiser

    Okay, I just watched the latest from TWC and Accuweather, and they both say Rocky should follow similar path as Storm Q. They both show KC getting the bullseye or close to it. Disregard the naysayers, unless it’s Gary of course. LoL

  • Kole Christian

    Couple of inches

  • restull

    Just think if this storm pans out, Wichita would have a 2nd chance to beat the all-time snowstorm record in less than a week! They received 14.2″ from this last storm….just off the record of 15″ set in 1962. Other places nearby saw up to 16-18 inches.

  • Skylar

    The new GFS is starting to shift south and give KC some decent snow. :)

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022218&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084″

    • StormyWX

      Good God ANOTHER 8 inches? Only time will tell how true this will hold up…

    • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

      Yep GFS is on a southward trend and does give a decent snowfall on KC.

      But which one is right? The GFS trending south from its previous northward track or the NAM on its ever southward trend away from KC?

      I hope the GFS is on it…

    • Skylar

      It shows 8-11″ with up to 12″ just NE of the city.

      “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022218&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=096″

  • Kcchamps

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022218&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=090″

    latest GFS looks good for SNOW (as of right now)

  • MikeL

    Wow…Wichita NWS could eventually issue a Blizzard Watch for their entire forecast area…from the AFD:

    “A WINTER STORM IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR NEARLY ALL AREAS FOR SUNDAY NGT & MON. THE CYCLONE WILL WIND UP LIKE AN ALARM CLOCK AS IT VENTURES E ALONG/NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER ON MON. THIS WOULD INDUCE DEEP-LAYER FLOW TO BACK TO A NLY COMPONENT & INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. A BLIZZARD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR THE NEIGHBORHOOD FOR MON. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS & ECMWF…BUT THOSE DIFFERENCES ARE NARROWING. SNOWFALLS OF 5-7 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS CNTRL & SC KS BY MON EVE & WITH N/NW WINDS OF 20-30 MPH BLOWING & DRIFTING WOULD CERTAINLY RESULT. HAVE CHECKED SWING ON ISSUING ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME SO AS TO ALLOW SUCCESSORS TO STUDY MODEL TRENDS. THESE PERIODS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY! PLEASE STAY TUNED.”

  • stjoeattorney

    18z gfs 6-9 across the area it appears to max out just west of us.

  • Kcchamps

    From the latest NWS forecast Discussion:

    With
    several possible outcomes with this system, and the potential for
    notable snowfall accumulations up to 6 inches or higher, people are
    urged to begin planning accordingly for the potential of another
    round of winter weather for the region Monday into Monday night.”

  • HeatMiser

    Gary says he see the storm coming in Monday afternoon/evening

  • kellyinkc

    Here we go again! Anyone familiar with this guy?
    “http://johndee.com/” Click on forecast graphic. It shows 4-8 inches of snow.

  • HeatMiser

    Accuweather: “Right now it’s pretty clear to us that the Central Plains and Upper Midwest will take the Brunt of Rocky.” Right now they have low going directly thru KC again..path very similar to Q.

  • kellyinkc

    Bring it, have snowblower! :)Amazing it may track the same.
    Imagine Q when it comes back according to the LRC. It would be Spring and get be a nasty storm again.

  • HeatMiser

    Oops, sorry, that quotes was from TWC. Accuweather map shows the same though. GFS also agrees. Gary agrees also. NAM shows worst of it a wee bit south. I will go with Gary, TWC, and accuweather. Catch up NAM.

  • HeavySnowBlowingSnow

    We are all assuming this Rocky is the boxer. How do we know it is not the flying squirrel who hung out with Bullwinkle? Is this storm going to be the equivalent of a world-champion heavyweight boxer or, instead, an animated rodent who can fly?

  • weatherkcmo

    It will be a contender!

  • HeatMiser

    I coulda been somebody! I coulda been a contender!

  • thundercolt

    Just playing the odd’s of us having ^ plus inch snowstorms within three days

    POOF

    • RickMckc

      Your statement raises an interesting question about probablity (actually, I think George W raised it once here).

      If you have flipped 49 coins in a row and they all turn up heads, what are the odds of the 50th one being tails?

      (The answer is the same as it is for getting nailed by two storms in a row).

  • weatherkcmo

    Anxiously waiting new data.

  • HeatMiser

    What time does new date come out?

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Heatmiser I see you found out how to update your picture profile

  • HeatMiser

    LoL…Yeah, finally!

  • HeatMiser

    Now, where’s that popsicle headed brother of mine

  • weatherkcmo

    I think it comes out at 8:30 and 9:30.

  • weatherkcmo

    Crickets.

  • OlatheMatt

    How do you add a photo to your profile? My log in for the weather blog…it works for 41, but when I use it to log into word press it doesnt work so I assume they are two sep log ins?

    • There are two login buttons, one is just a regular login and the other says login with Facebook, the Facebook one is the one you want to choose.

    • Skylar

      ^^yes. If you don’t have a facebook, just register with gravatar using the same email you log into the blog with and it will put a picture in.

  • Has Gary said why he thinks this snowstorm coming Monday has the potential to be bigger and stronger then yesterday’s? I missed tonite’s 6 pm broadcast

  • Skylar

    New NAM shifts back north a bit, now showing around 6″ in KC. It really dumps over the same areas that just got 12-18″ yesterday.

  • farmingnolkes

    It will track south like second storm did when we had are first snow a few months ago

  • sticks435

    what the hell, I sent in 2 comments an hour ago and they are still in moderation.

  • HeatMiser

    Hey Gary, when do you think we’ll have a better idea about whether the storm is coming straight for us or heading south. It seems the latest models show it coming right at us.