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Another Storm System, Another Miss

Good Saturday bloggers,

I wish I had better news for the weather enthusiasts, but we are going to take a direct hit from the dry slot of the storm system. This is the least precipitation producing part of a functional storm system. It is not just KC that is having these issues.  Since, the new LRC started in early October Dodge City, KS has seen 0.10″ and Amarillo, TX has seen 0.00″.

Here is the 90 day percent average rainfall across the USA. The dryness extends from the middle of the USA to southwest USA. There will be parts of this dry area that see some decent moisture with the next storm system, but it will likely not be our area.

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We have had 17% of average rainfall (we included the total January average) since the 22nd of October as storm system after storm system underwhelm. We had nearly 20″ of rain from August 1st to October 22nd and since then 0.99″. Incredible!

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The roads are wet today, but not from rain. This is condensation, as the relatively warm and moist air overruns the very cold surface, like a cold soda can outside on a summer day. So, the damp to wet roads when mixed with the salt and dirt can make things a bit slick. Especially, if you start too fast at a light.

Let’s go through this next storm system and see if we can actually find some water falling from the sky and not just condensing on the ground.

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SATURDAY: Today will be mostly cloudy and dry with highs around 50°.

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SATURDAY EVENING: There is a chance of some drizzle and fog with temperatures in the 40s. You can see a snowstorm getting its act together in Wyoming.

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SUNDAY MORNING: It will be cloudy and cool with patches of drizzle and perhaps some fog as a snowstorm increases in Wyoming, Colorado and western Nebraska.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: We will see lots of clouds with highs in the 50s. A few showers will begin to increase during the evening as a snowstorm is occurring in western Nebraska, northwest Kansas and northeast Colorado.

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SUNDAY NIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT: Rain and thunderstorms will be increasing to the east while the snow continues in Nebraska. We may still have a few showers with temperatures around 50°.

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MONDAY: The storm system will be pulling away and we will see wind, temperatures in the 30s and scattered snow and rain showers. The 12Z NAM has come out with the upper low farther south, tracking right over KC on Monday. If this happens, then Monday afternoon and evening we will have a chance for a dusting to 1″ of snow. This is something to watch, but even that is just another one of our under 1″ snows since February 4, 2014. Our average snowstorm amount is 0.8″ since February 4, 2014.

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Here is the rain and snow forecast for the storm system this weekend and Monday. You can see the heaviest snow occurs from northeast Colorado to Nebraska and southern Minnesota. If you reference the 90 day percent average rainfall map above, you can see they need the precipitation as well. The heaviest rain occurs east of the Mississippi river and they do not need precipitation as bad we as we do west of the Mississippi. We are in the low precipitation zone as the dry slot takes aim on eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

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SNOWFALL FORECAST: It will be quite a snowstorm with blizzard conditions in central and western Nebraska up to Minnesota.

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RAINFALL/SNOWFALL FORECAST: We will see a trace to .25″ of rain with a dusting of snow to the northwest. Now, remember, we still have some solutions where we could see a dusting to 1″. The upper low must track near or just south of KC to make that possible.

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Have a great weekend and let’s see what the data shows tomorrow.

Jeff Penner

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