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Another Storm Is About To Miss Kansas City

Good morning bloggers,

As discussed in yesterday’s blog, Kansas City is far from alone on getting missed over and over again. The frustrations mount when a storm approaches and is so close, and then it leaves us in the dust.  That is what will most likely happen on Thursday. Take a look:

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This is the NAM model surface forecast valid at 6 AM Thursday. I will be back in KC Thursday experience another miss.  And, look how close it is to KC, to Maryville, MO.  Maryville, MO may be miles from missing this one.  A strong cold front will move through Thursday morning. There is a chance of thunderstorms as the surface low passes by to the northwest early Thursday morning around 3 AM, but by 6 AM you can see the low in northeastern Iowa.  There is a warm sector to this storm over Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.  In the spring months this setup will likely produce a significant severe weather outbreak.  It can happen during the winter as well if more warm and moist air was available, and this may be the case by Friday as you can see below with the fully formed cyclone:

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The area of snow coming in from the northwest will be monitored closely, but KC is placed perfectly to most likely get missed again. It is difficult to have to always try to explain misses, but we don’t have a choice do we?  For areas out east, my goodness, it is another exciting storm.

Snowfall Forecast From This Morning’s NAM Model:

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Remember, Dodge City and Amarillo are still sitting at no snow for the season. The far back edge of this system may clip Dodge City, but it appears, Amarillo will get missed once again.  Have a great day. I am presenting tomorrow morning (Wednesday morning) at the conference. Thank you for your great comments on why this blog is successful. I am using a few of them in my presentation.  Have a great day. The blog will be rather late tomorrow, so please be patient.

Take a look at this:

Screen Shot 2018-01-09 at 9.42.59 AM

Look at the system off of the Florida west coast over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This is what is left of the system that brought KC rain on Sunday.  It is now over the Gulf of Mexico.  Now, look at this:

Screen Shot 2018-01-09 at 9.45.53 AM

This is day 1 or day 2 of this years LRC. LRC Cycle 1, day 1!  Hurricane Nate was forming in the Gulf of Mexico.  Remember, Weather2020 actually predicted Hurricane Harvey 55 days before it formed right here in the blog.  How? This is how!  There is a very good chance of a hurricane around September 1st right near this location.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the cycling weather pattern.  We are continuing our great discussion about everything weather and more on the Weather2020 blog, so go click on that here to join in the conversation:  Weather2020 Blog

Gary

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2 comments to Another Storm Is About To Miss Kansas City

  • Hockeynut69

    Gary- I posted the following back on November 13th about the first round of the LRC. My concern was how storms would barely do much in KC area and then intensify once it past KC. It appears the LRC is spot on for the cycling pattern but I am failing to understand why the struggle with forecasting for KC when the pattern has set up and repeated with same result. I know there is some wishcasting that occurs because of the excitement of a storm, but I think if following the LRC and other tools, you would be better off on forecasts for KC rather than what you would like to see happen. Just an opinion and not blasting you. I have been a longtime follower of your weather forecasts and the LRC, just an observation.

    “When looking at the pattern setting up, currently it appears we will be slightly below average in temps for the winter. I am struggling with a precipitation forecast, I feel like we are going to be in this zone in between above average and below average precipitation. Areas to the east and northeast in that above average zone and Kansas in the below average zone. A shift either way could really change our precip amounts. I have not been impressed with the precipitation for the first round of this cycle for KC. I do think that the I-44 corridor could be in trouble with ice as they will be in the zone that is between cold and warm air. I will say we will be above the past two years in snow but not thinking we will be above average due to how the cycle is setting up initially.”