Good morning!
With a low of 58 at KCI, that makes this morning (at KCI) the coolest since June 12…i.e. coolest morning in a couple months. My co-worker turned her heater on while she drove to work at 5 am. Heater? Ha!
OK, the US Drough Monitor Upgraded part of the viewing area to the “Exceptional Drought” level…the highest, most severe category they use.
Paola, Garnett, La Cygne, Pleasanton, Ottawa, Iola, Butler, Harrisonville are all situated in the area labeled “Exceptional Drought”. At about 8″ short since June 1, we’d need several rounds of repeated t-storms with heavy rain to just fall back from Exceptional Drought to Severe drought.
The chance for rain tomorrow isn’t looking to good. I waffled between 20-30%, just left it at 30% because of the slight opportunity both early in the morning (4-7am) and again in the evening (6-10pm).
So then we look ahead to next Thursday:
A passing cold front may be able to trigger some measurable rain Thursday…but again, we may max out with this one under 1/2″. And that does it for the week ahead. I’ll have an update after the Olympics today 5/6pm. Have you had enough of the Olympics yet?
From drought, to record rainfall…the subject changes to highest daily rainfall. Do you know the answer to this question?
kshb.com/contests … even though we’ve been talking about back-2-school, football, cooler weather…summer is still around for almost another month. It’s still waterpark season! Enter for your chance to win 4 Schlitterbahn tix!
-GW
Didn’t think we’d see a morning like this for a long time to come. Thank goodness it has!
I heard a report the other day George that some forecasters don’t see the drought easing up for at least the next 12 to 18 months in this region. Are you and Gary seeing this potential as well? I only ask because water reserves could become an issue when talking about drinking water! I’m hoping this isn’t true but thought I’d ask.
Thanks George!
If there,s a shortage of drinking water,which wont bother me any(beer),then we will go to war w/ Canada and take theres…We will let Mexico have theres.
With the Kansas and Missouri rivers in our backyard, it seems unlikely we’ll have a water problem here.
OK folks, we’ve got a real contest here. The Ch 41 forecast high for next Wednesday is 100, the NWS forecast is only 88! Looks like they are using completely different models. Let’s see who starts to hedge over the next few days and who gets it right! I’m betting on KC’s most accurate forecast.
Easy call , remember extreme weather sells (increase viewers) sell more ads, make more $. Not knocking it, if I was GM i would do same thing. Anyway point is kshb is always lot more extreme in 7 day forcast. (want to grab your attention)
It’s not going to get anywhere near 100 Wednesday. rred hit it right on the head the 7-day almost always has extremes 4-7 days out, give it a day or two and they’ll start to dial it back down. Tush, you’re killin’ me.
I saw that forecast of 100 and made a bet with a friend that it don’t get to 100 again this year. The pattern looks to break around mid August like most dry years do. Its nothing to do with the LRC it just the way weather patterns usually work around here.
I did some AO NAO sleuthing and noticed if the NAO AND AO both go sharply negative at the same time, that the winter following CAN be unusually harsh.
My examples are
2010-2011 winter
Winter of 68-69(legendary winter, that i wasn’t alive for).
Those 2 winters also have very similar patterns on the graphs as well. Check it out.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.timeseries.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/month_ao_index.shtml
NWS just blinked, they bumped their Wednesday forecast from 88 to 92. Score one for the KSHB team!
Also from the NWS discussion …
Wednesday Night-Thursday: The first reasonable period of southwesterly low level flow in sometime will bring sufficient moisture to produce widespread rain chances late Wednesday night and Thursday, and a burst of seasonally cool air for the rest of the week.
“Friday-Saturday: Very chilly airmass behind this upper trough with
850mb temps in the single digits. In fact, it wouldn`t be surprising
for temperatures to fail to reach 80 degrees Friday and Saturday.”
Sad that possibly not getting into the 80s counts as “very chilly”.
moderate/heavy downpour here in Independence!