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Another Major Northeastern Storm

Good morning,

Well, we did it again last night.  The thunderstorms formed two to three counties east of Kansas City and moved away.  A cold front is now moving through this morning. Some rain showers associated with the front are possible.

1

This system moving by now will become another big storm in the east.  Yes, this fast moving system this morning will likely form into another rather significant storm near the northeast coast.  The weather pattern continues to cycle regularly and the same spots that have had an exciting winter keep getting hit by the storm systems, while the same spots that have been missed all season continue to get missed as spring approaches. This next storm, if anyone wants to check is exactly on the 47-day cycle near the east coast. Just go back and look at January 18th and compare it to what is about to happen. It is just incredible.  If you go a step further, and I will do the comparison for you, just look at what happened with this big storm that just hit the east and also out west:

LRC Storm Comparisons Cycles 2 & 4.

Now, did that block really help that storm system intensify near the east and west coasts? I believe that the answer is a yes, but there are other factors that go into this, including seasonal differences and other factors.  This block did have an influence, likely a pretty big one, but it was still just an influence. The LRC is still the centerpiece of the big atmospheric puzzle.  The west coast is getting some noticeable effects, and quite obviously the northeastern part of the nation and the Great Lakes has been in impact areas. Kansas City and areas to the south and west of Missouri have been influenced by one of the quasi-permanent ridges aloft that has prevented every winter storm from materializing in our area.

So, this next storm forming in the northeast by Wednesday may produce some more snow or a cold heavy rain in the big cities, such as New York City and Boston. The forecast will be quite challenging. For Kansas City, I wish we had a challenge like this week, but our challenge has been will it rain or snow small amounts or will it go by dry.  Now, remember last year? It suddenly got wet in late March. There are still more storm systems in our near future, but will they be hits or misses.  Amarillo, TX is still sitting at 0.01″ since October 13th and Dodge City, KS is still sitting at 1″ of snow for the entire season. More on these stats later this week.

Today’s storm:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_4

Look at today’s storm, above. This map shows a strong surface low, by 6 PM tonight, located over South Dakota. Kansas City will have a west wind. The model runs that had some wrap around snow have been way off for KC, but there still could be a snow or rain shower later tonight or Tuesday as a disturbance rotates around this developing system. Yes, it is a developing storm that looks so similar to one that formed 47 to 48 days earlier in January.  And, you can see the previous eastern storm out to sea just spinning around over the Atlantic.

The mid-week storm:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_11

This next storm blows up and intensifies just in time to create an incredible weather experience again for the weather enthusiasts near the northeast coast.  What a winter they have had with ups and downs, warm and cold, and lots of snow.  And, this storm only looks more impressive as we get closer to it.  Let’s see how this sets up for them, but back home in KC we are having another rather dry system move by.  The cold front will move through this morning with dropping temperatures during the next few hours.

Here are my favorite two pictures from my snow chase 2018 trip out to Lake Tahoe:

icicle

snowscene

I did get my fill of snow, but even this storm underperformed based on the model forecasts.  Why? It never really formed into an intense surface cyclone over the Pacific before moving in, and while I was in Tahoe, the locals said it was their first storm of the entire winter, and it was March. My goodness. But, I had around 18″ of snow, so I more snow in two days than I had seen in the last three winters combined.  And, bloggers, our chances for snow aren’t done yet, but it seems like many of you are ready to move on from this “miserable and frustrating” winter we just experienced.  One good snowstorm would certainly make many of us feel better, but time is running out soon.

Thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Have a great start to the week.

Gary

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