Another Dry Storm System

Good Sunday bloggers,

We are looking at some great weather, considering it is December 10th in Kansas City. We will be having a westerly breeze from the high Plains, so the wind is blowing from higher to lower elevations, or also know as downsloping winds, a warming wind as the air sinks and compresses. Highs today will rise to 55°-60° with full sunshine. We are tracking a storm system now in southwest Canada that once again originated as a large and wet storm system in the Pacific Ocean that had to track north over a big blocking ridge on the west coast. In this process, it lost strength and moisture. This storm will race by dry here, and become a large storm in New England. As a weather enthusiast, I can’t imagine experiencing the weather year after year in the northeast.

Let’s go through this dry storm system and look ahead 10 days to possible changes.

Here is the storm system we are tracking. Sunday morning it was topping the ridge in southwest Canada. It is about to make a southeast turn.


The storm system will race southeast Monday, tracking northeast of KC, putting us on the periods of clouds, windy side of the storm system. There could be an evening sprinkle or flurry Monday. The system then turns east and northeast into New England where it will gather Atlantic Ocean and some Gulf of Mexico moisture to become a big storm system.


SUNDAY: Highs will be 55°-60° from KC west and 50°-55° from KC east. It would not surprise me if we jumped to 60° at the last minute, before peak heating of the day ends. Highs will be 65°-70° in western Kansas.


MONDAY MORNING: The day will start calm with a 10-20 mph southwest wind and temperatures in the 30s to near 40°. The southwest Canada storm system will be racing southeast along with it’s cold front.


MONDAY 11 AM-1 PM: A cold front will be fast approaching, so we will see an increase in clouds and wind with temperatures rising to 50°-55°. There will be snow in the Great Lakes, far from our region.


MONDAY 4-6 PM: It will be cloudy and very windy with gusts from the northwest to 40-45 mph as the cold front races away. Temperatures will drop to the 40s. We may see a sprinkle or flurry, but nothing significant.


TUESDAY: There will be areas of clouds and seasonably cold with lows in the 20s and highs in the 40s.


TUESDAY IN THE NORTHEAST USA: The storm system that races by here on Monday will become a big and wet storm system. The big cities on the coast may see just rain, but they will be close to the rain-snow line.


Let’s look at the upper level flow and see if we can find any changes. This is the upper flow for today and you can see the huge blocking ridge on the west coast, so there is no change on this map.


The upper level flow for Thursday is showing a subtle change as the big ridge is retrograding, or shifting west into the Pacific ocean. This is still dry for the middle of the USA as the ridge is still too close.


Next weekend the ridge is in the Pacific ocean and much flatter and smaller. So, this is going to open the door to storm systems tracking into the western USA, which opens the door to the middle of the USA seeing better chances of rain and snow. It looks like the first system next weekend to move through the shrinking ridge may not be strong enough to bring any precipitation, but an upper low near Baja, CA will have to be watched around  the 20th and this looks to be followed by a few more storm systems.


So, we have another 7-10 days of mostly dry weather and then a change is showing up and the door opens for us to see some rain or snow. The question is…Will we walk through the door?


Have a great week ahead and remember the ongoing burn bans.

Jeff Penner

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