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Another Complex Weekend Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

There is a lot to go over today and we will begin with our rainfall deficit:

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Rainfall is below average for the month, and below average for the year!

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At this time of the year you can either catch up on rainfall fast, or you can fall much farther below average rather quickly.  There is a good chance of some very heavy thunderstorms later this weekend:

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I am going to wait to finish this blog entry until later this morning after the new data comes in….

11 AM Update:

The new data is trickling in and the latest NAM has rain, sleet, and snow in the 36 hours from Sunday into Monday!  The GFS has a faster solution with no snow on the back side.  This model blows the front through around 4 PM Sunday with heavy thunderstorms and then the cold blast. So, it is three to six hours faster than the NAM model. The hang back wave that produces snow on the NAM model is not as organized on the GFS model. Which one is correct? Probably neither of them, but a combination of the two. Let’s see what the rest of the models show and I will be on at 4, 5, 6, and 10 PM on Friday Night In The Big Town with an in-depth weather forecast.

The 14th Annual Kansas City Pet Telethon is on 38 the Spot Sunday night at 6:30 PM.  Will we be in the middle of a line of thunderstorms at 6:30 PM Sunday? We will have around 100 dogs in the studio. Of all days, we don’t need a line of strong to severe thunderstorms at that hour but it seems to be timing out about then.  Maybe the cold front will blow through a bit earlier?  Anyway, if you can call in and donate it would really help the Humane Society of Greater Kansas City.  Stormy and Breezy were both adopted from the Humane Society of Greater KC!

Pet Telethon

Have a great day, and check back in for updates over the weekend.

Gary

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25 comments to Another Complex Weekend Forecast

  • Dobber

    Rain? Say it ain’t so. The drought mongerers won’t like hearing this,….

  • AW

    So far this April, I’ve totally called these rain forecasts. Now let’s see if this one plays out my way. I think that that there is a possibility of Severe Weather, but not widespread, up in KC, anyway, and will come in the form of mostly hail. Rainfall totals should be an inch or more for this system, unless you live farther west than Lawrence.

  • frigate

    Lets hope those folks that have been missing on all the rain finally get some, as I’m sure those just east of here, with all the flooding going on…would rather skip this one.

  • Henley

    Southern Lees Summit will get no rain, everyone else within a 150 miles radius will get rain.

  • Drought Miser

    This looks to be our drought buster as long as the data keeps trending in our favor let’s keep our hopes up folk’s for just the right amount of rain and no real Severe weather and or flash flooding!!! Saturday nights severe setup could be one to watch with temps near 80 degrees and snow in Nebraska

  • Hume-Dude

    I’m digging the latest trends, looking up for a widespread rain event. Dobber thinks people that are experiencing drought are drought mongerers, no we just call’em like we see’em. I want it to rain more than anybody, I wonder if Dobber’s paycheck is directly correlated to the weather like mine is? Henley, keep the faith you will get in on this event! We will need more than one system to pan out for us, so lets see what this storm does and what the rest of the month brings

    • Pete Capone

      Dobber prefers to hang with Adrian Adonis. Remember Adrian’s Flower Shop?

      One can’t just say the drought’s over a hundred times and make it so.

      Not even the great Adrian can do that.

      Yes, the drought is so.

    • Dobber

      No the only thing I depend on water for is to flush the toliet….see’em and call’em eh? Peter, who cares if its over or not? why are you so invested in us being in a catastrophic drought? Its all you talk about. I am saving rainwater to flush my toliet

  • kcbearcatfan

    Hey Gary, how likely will we have clear skies Monday night for the eclipse?

  • batman

    I would think that the LRC american scientist that you have would be able to figure out the forecast so it wouldn’t be so complex.

    One rain event does not make a drought buster. We are heading for a severe drought again. BOOM>

  • j-ox

    A drought is a forest and a rain event is a tree. ‘Some folks’ only see a tree and can’t even conceive of the forest. We NEED rain…for the forest’s sake.

  • AW

    Let’s change the subject. Anyone got the Summer Forecast? Or does LRC quit after June? What about Winter over the next 50 years? Some people are saying very few sunspots for awhile, which could result in bitterly cold winter and under average global temps, which each winter getting progressively colder, except for a few warmer years, like 2015.

    • chris

      Ask pete or batman. They know everything lol

    • Hume-Dude

      LRC doesn’t quit, but jet stream and storm path just shifts way up to the north along Canadian boarder. So we don’t get the direct impact of the storm systems, but we do get the trailing cold fronts. So LRC does help timing fronts, if they can actually get here before washing out or being consumed by huge High pressure dome.

      • Yes, and this front is timed very similarly to others from this season. It will likely pass through before 6 PM.

        Gary

        • Hume-Dude

          Gary – I never thought of that angle, regarding the timing of the fronts. The past couple years have seen poorly timed fronts, coming through in am hours with limited day time heating in play. It will interesting to see if the fronts are more PM orientated this year, and thus more active with T-storm development in the warm sector vs. storm development Post frontal like last year’s crazy pattern.

  • AW

    Precipitation maps say 1.25 inches to 3 inches of rain. The farther north you are, the more rain you get. Any other maps? I need all possibilities!

    • Hume-Dude

      Sounds abut right, my farm is 85 miles south of downtown KC , so we’ll probably get missed I assume…..or we will get some little drought showers like we have been.

  • AW

    Also looking at a squall line setting up.

  • AW

    Starting just east of Lawrence.

  • mgsports

    Are predicting for tomorrow? If so you would be right and also give what types you see like maybe Large Hail,Heavy Winds,Tornado’s or so on.

    • AW

      I think just small hail, probably nickel sized at the most, and wind gusts up to 45 mph. If there are any warnings, it’ll probably be just for hail, no bigger than half dollars (1.25 inches)