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Another Blocking Pattern Is Developing

Good morning bloggers,

A cold air mass is building right now over Canada and a piece of this will blast south this weekend.  A very strong cold front will move through the plains Friday night and Saturday, heading toward the northeast by Easter Sunday morning.  There will likely be a very hard freeze up north on Easter Sunday. The hard freeze will be on Kansas City’s doorstep as you can se below. I drew in the freeze line on this April 1st map showing 7 AM temperatures:

2

We have been in a long cooler and cloudier stretch.  Today will be another cloudy day in KC. There is a good chance of some sunshine on Friday ahead of the cold blast.  Take a look at the pattern that is cycling through this weekend. This map below shows the 500 mb forecast valid at 7 AM Sunday:

LRC Cycle 4 April 1

1There are two upper level high height areas forming over the high latitudes.  I plotted the Highs with the H’s on the map.  This is the LRC that is getting another blocking influence and this is forecast to develop during the next five days, so confidence is high that it will form.  Earlier this month a rather strong block developed and it influenced the weather over California and over the northeastern United States rather significantly.  The influences over the plains has been a bit more subtle. As we all know, it just has had a hard time snowing over Kansas and Missouri this winter. KC is still sitting at 5.8″ for the entire season.  The overnight GFS model had many chances for snow showing up again, but we know what happens to each of these chances. They usually go “poof”.  The Eastern Sunday chance of snow is still there, but it certainly looks minor if it happens at all.

At least it has started raining and any concerns of drought have waned. The drought is contracting towards the epicenter over the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma.  We are monitoring this trend closely.  Our forecast for spring is for this same pattern to continue with more chances of these precipitation producing storm systems. Eventually it will be too late for any chances for snow, but as KC experienced just a few years ago, it can snow in early May, so it is not too late yet.

Kansas City Forecast Timeline:

  • Opening Day of Major League Baseball in KC:  Some fog this morning will be lifting. It will be cloudy again. I think the clouds may thin with a chance of a little sun this afternoon with highs sneaking into the 50s. There will be a breeze from the north around 10 to 15 mph.
  • Friday: Some sunshine breaking out with southwest winds increasing at 15-30 mph. High:  63°
  • Saturday: A cold front blasts through during  the morning with highs in the 50s dropping into the 40s with northwest winds 15-30 mph.
  • Easter Sunday:  Mostly cloudy with a few snowflakes possible.  Low:  30° High: 40°

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Join in the conversation on the Weather2020 blog as we share and learn together.

Gary

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