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And, it happened again!

Good morning bloggers,

Another large area of rain is missing most of our area once again.  It’s like the same thing keeps happening over and over again.  Of course it is the same thing, as we continue to cycle through the same weather pattern. Fortunately a new weather pattern will be evolving in the next four to six weeks.  There is a good chance of rain and thunderstorms coming up, however. In this weather pattern it has always come through with just enough rain right when it seems we are going to really dry out. We are forecasting a good chance of rain and thunderstorms Friday into Friday night as a storm approaches, and then again Sunday night, with a chance of severe weather Sunday night.

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As you can see above, the latest morning rain event is just west and northwest of Kansas City.  And, below is a satellite picture from yesterday showing Cristobal, Marie, a disturbance in the Gulf, and a storm over the Rocky Mountains. This storm over the Rocky’s is heading our way, but will we always be in the wrong spot for the rain?

2014 Hurricane Cristobal and disturbance2 Satellite

Weather2020 made an incredible weather forecast for this part of the weather pattern to return in late August into early September. Using the LRC Weather2020 used knowledge of the cycling weather pattern to forecast these hurricanes over 50 days ago, and also the potential for severe weather to arrive around September 1st. The potential for severe weather Sunday night into Monday is there, but most likely just north of Kansas City across Iowa and Nebraska, but we will have to watch it closely. I blogged about the cycling weather pattern on the Weather2020.com site.

Here is one of the maps we used to forecast the return of these tropical systems, right on schedule:

LRC Cycle 5 July 2 PlottedYou can click on this map for a larger view. Yewtrees wanted me to post a map of the forecast Weather2020 made.  An alert was sent out on July 1st, and then this map was plotted to show the potential return of Arthur, and other potential systems that get caught within the cycling LRC pattern.

How about our Kansas City Royals! The past two days have been two of the more dramatic games. Now, will it rain Friday night or Sunday night? I am honored to have been chosen to throw out the first pitch Sunday night. Should I practice? I get one throw.  Have a great day. We will have your most accurate forecast today and tonight on 41 Action News.

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59 comments to And, it happened again!

  • yewtrees

    “will it rain Friday night or Sunday night?” You tell us, Gary. Since you can predict the hurricanes 50 days ago based on the lrc, I think you should be able to tell us if it will rain tomorrow night?
    Secondly, bloggers won’t be too convinced what you said above until you post a map 50 days ago to match the second map you posted above.

    • Yes, it will rain! But, will it rain over a half inch? I am not sold on that yet. And, I will post the map, but will it make a difference in your mind? As you know over the years, Yewtrees, I have left 100s of these examples. I just posted the map from over 50 days ago that went out to our clients.

      Gary

  • Hume-Dude

    Bring it on Gary – thanks for the Blog always enjoy your input. Do you have even a little Hunch on how the NEW LRC pattern will behave? D. Heady is thinking it will be a neutral pattern, neither Nino/Nina which can be hard to read as it plays with cycle lengths and whatnot. Regardless of the length of the cycles, I am more curious if we will finally be in the right spot with the new pattern( probably impossible to tell until the new pattern TELLS us ). I know, its not even September yet but hungry for new pattern shift…..

    • I think it will be an El Niño. How strong of one, I am not sure, but very likely we are heading into an El Niño winter. And, if you have been following the LRC for a while then you likely realize that there is no way of knowing the pattern before it sets up. That will happen in four to ten weeks from now. It has to be better than this pattern.

      Gary

  • hsbthethird

    Gary, more important than the weather is your worrying all week about the first pitch. I had a chance several years ago with my little league team on the field to throw out the first pitch on a Sunday afternoon at an empty stadium. I could hear people calling my name — it’s unnerving. Go up on the mound. You will never forget it. Wear coaching cleats — soft rubber — I wore tennis shoes and still remember feeling stupid. Practice throwing it high and hard. Best advice came from an ex-Royal friend of mine who said “Throw it high and hard.” If it goes over the catcher’s head, they think you are amped up. More likely it comes in chest high to cheers from your fans!

  • Drought Miser

    Drought Miser reporting live from Council Bluffs Iowa, way to much rain up here hopefully it finds it’s way down to KC! !! Some areas around here well over 8 inches of precipitation in the last couple days! !

  • sedsinkc

    Blog is not posting my posts. Irritating, to put it mildly.

  • sedsinkc

    I tried to critique Gary’s claims re the 500 mb map he posted.

  • sedsinkc

    Where is the vort max currently sending rain our way located on the July 2 map?

    • There is a strong short wave in this part of the pattern, that you can see on that map, and then three days later there was a weaker wave. It’s all there Seds, hidden within the chaos. There is organization to the chaos.

      Gary

  • luvsno

    Gary……
    Congratulations on getting to throw the first pitch ! Quite an honor.
    GO ROYALS !!
    And even though starters are nit playing tonight…GO CHIEFS !!

    And let’s bring on the rain ! So ready for new pattern. I hope it is more favorable for moisture here than we have had the last few years. But ut always seems like feast or famine no matter what part of the country. I do have to say, though, this summer has been pretty decent to us getting rain at just the right times, even if it was not huge amounts in the metro. Our grass stayed green most times.

  • sedsinkc

    It is no stretch to predict there will be tropical cyclones between August 25 and Sept 4, near the peak of hurricane season. Also, if Cristobal is related to Arthur, how come Cristobal is not hitting the East Coast?

    • It just barely got influenced by that trough that was moving off into the northern Atlantic. It came very close to taking the exact same track as Arthur, just a bit farther east.

      Gary

      • sedsinkc

        Sorry Gary, I don’t agree. Cristobal’s track is a good 500 miles east of Arthur’s track. Also, the origin of Arthur is totally different from Cristobal’s origin. Arthur developed from a disturbance that drifted SOUTH and offshore from the Carolinas. Cristobal is essentially a Cape Verde storm, originating from an easterly wave that came off the African coast, but did not start to develop until it approached the Lesser Antilles.

  • Bill Z.

    Gary, you will need to be on your game to prove to Seds (and me). However, I appreciate your efforts. Seds, I appreciate your input as always too! This makes for an enjoyable blog.

    We need rain in Baldwin City badly. Just missed that pop up last night over Clinton Lake.

    • sedsinkc

      Bill, I believe in intellectual honesty, not sleight of hand. I also believe, unlike Gary, that the LRC by this time has begun transitioning from last year’s pattern into next year’s, and is currently in a phase where it is becoming unrecognizable as last year’s pattern or what next year’s pattern will be.

      • sedsinkc

        I believe the properties of fluids (like the atmosphere) preclude a viable model where a weather pattern suddenly shifts after the jet stream has already started to strengthen in September. There has to be a transition.

        • Seds,

          I appreciate your input. Obviously I disagree, as we know that it’s there. And, the pattern is still strongly the old one. Just compare the maps from moving into November 15th to 18th, and what is happening in the next few days. It is right on schedule! Yes, the new pattern has had to start evolving, but as I have been showcasing for a decade in this blog now, the old pattern likely still hangs on and is dominant for another two to four weeks while the new pattern evolves and develops, which will happen in the next few weeks as well. You would think that this combination would produce something different, but for now I think we can all agree it has been more of the same. Later this month, in the last “breath” of this weather pattern, the old pattern will produce a very strong cold front near the end of September and I have a forecast for an early frost and freeze from our area northward, obviously impacting areas to the north harder. We will see if it materializes. It will be coming at the very end of this pattern and at the very beginning of the new one.

          Clouds are building strongly right now. Will thunderstorms form today? We really need some rain. And, the latest GFS has 2-3 inches of rain in the next week or so in KC with 3 to 5 inches just north. Will we be in the shadow of the rain again? Not sure yet, but 2 to 3 inches would do wonders for our water tables.

          Gary

          • sedsinkc

            Thanks for the reply Gary. I have been rather tough on you today, though briefer than I wanted to be. Looking forward to that September freeze, if it happens. It would be a good test for your late season LRC model. BTW KC has only had one official freeze in September in its weather history, in 1995.

            • I am not expecting a freeze in KC, but possibly a frost. And, we have passed most of your tests. Just sayin.

              Gary

              • sedsinkc

                Yes, you’ve had an excellent track record with this year’s LRC. Let’s see if you can replicate your success with the next LRC. This year’s LRC has been “well behaved,” if you know what I mean. Some years the LRC is like an untamed beast, full of surprises.

    • sedsinkc

      Also Bill, I had a much longer reply that I sent, but the blog did not post it. Again. Grrr. The prior post is the short version.

      • Bill Z.

        Thanks Seds. I have not gone back to see last fall’s tropical systems and how they moved. If the LRC can actually predict the tropics, there should be a 1-1 correlation to tropical systems from last fall repeating now. I think it is far fetched to believe that the weather repeats in such a way on a specific time scale. It is making a terribly complex series of interactions and making them way too simple as to repeat on a schedule.

        Thanks again for your consistent input, as you obviously are well educated and you make your points backed by accepted science.

  • Hockeynut69

    I am guessing that the below forecast for a huge amount of rain is going to be a bust (unless of course if he meant by KC, near the Iowa border): “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140804+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area”

    GFS 16 day total for KC.

    5-10 inches…….August just might wash away.

    Going to be a cool, green, wet month.

  • Hockeynut69

    That was a mowermike post by the way.

    • Hume-Dude

      And it busted HARD. It has been real struggle to get rain this month, unless you are 75-100 miles away. That doesn’t count just because it was close

      • Dobber

        Just like when it doesn’t rain on your farm it doesn’t count Hume. 75-100 miles away doesn’t count. Remember that.

    • sedsinkc

      Exhibit A of why you don’t post 16 day model rainfall forecasts and expect them to be accurate. No model can make accurate rainfall accumulation forecasts for a total of 16 days into the future. Even for half that amount of time precip accumulation is hard to get right.

  • yewtrees

    Thanks for posting the map

  • Bill Z.

    Except for a 3.47 inch rainfall on Aug. 6, there has been a total of 1.29 inches at KCI. That doesn’t keep things very green. We need rain. I don’t know if the soybeans will set full pods now, even with a rain. Getting to be too late.

  • robyn corzine

    Good discussion and once again Gary will always have doubters because it’s not peer reviewed. Yes I said it Peer reviewed. One would think that other mets would have jumped on board with this hypothesis but they haven’t. I have said before and I will say it again it sounds like more of a business venture and a way to make money.

    How many times are we going to have to here about this first pitch? Look at me look at me gets old. Good luck. Hopefully you throw better then on the commercial with the mascot.

    Mowermike will once again be no where to be found because of the bust of a forecast he made. Mowermike just come on say you were Dead wrong. That’s all I ask. Sucks to be back in the states!

    • Dobber

      Glad to see you back on here miss corzine. You bring so much joy to the blog. Care to take a stab at a fall forecast?

    • sedsinkc

      Gary has some LRC disciples in broadcast meteorology, including Jeremy Nelson on Ch. 12 WISN in Milwaukee who used to be at KSHB, and Doug Heady on Ch. 7 KOAM in Joplin. And of course, Jeff Penner. There may be others that I do not know about.

  • f00dl3

    Gary – are you going to hold on to the 80% rain chance Friday or lower it to 30%? It’s looking like it’s going to be very spotty who gets rain and who doesn’t. A very broken line of light rain showers or even sprinkles, with most areas getting under a tenth of an inch.

  • f00dl3

    ^ in the KC metro ^

  • f00dl3

    The haves and the have-notes “http://water.weather.gov/precip/”

  • Hume-Dude

    Why isn’t that huge system in OK riding up to the NW and hitting us later? HRRR tells the story……it evaporates before it can make it. Other systems have no problem barreling for hundreds of miles before dissipating. What is wrong with our atmospheric conditions EvERY time?!!! The more forecasts I see the less hope I am having, power cast did not look impressive to me. Same pattern at work here folks, maybe some places will pick up on 1/2″

    • sedsinkc

      If you recall, this scenario happened several times this summer. Days in advance we looked like we had a great chance of rain, then as the time neared the system weakened and we got little rain or nothing. It may be happening again. Tomorrow will tell the tale. We need some good sun during the day to warm things up and destabilize the atmosphere so storms can fire. If it’s cloudy all day our rain prospects go down considerably.

      • Seds,

        This is ridiculous. The latest NAM has a really nice wave of energy coming right over us during the morning. And, the models are modeling very skimpy rainfall amounts. And, it isn’t like it has been dry around us. 10 inches+ in the Omaha area. Heavy downpours in Oklahoma, northern Missouri has been blasted, but here we sit with a storm coming our way and I am coming on the air in 38 minutes to try to explain this horrible weather pattern. It is really tough. Explaining how things aren’t happening is a very difficult task, and to do it day after day is really frustrating. Now, I love describing the weather every night, but this year’s cycling weather pattern has just not been very favorable for weather excitement in KC. We have had our moments, just not enough of them. Do you agree. Now, if you believe in the LRC, then you would know something very different will happen in a few weeks. I AM SO READY.

        • sedsinkc

          Yes Gary, I am ready for a new pattern. My worry is that when the worm turns after these several dry years, we will get too much rain too fast and have floods.

          • I don’t want floods, but as you know that is what happens sometimes. We will see in the coming weeks. Maybe something will develop tomorrow morning with that wave. I have lost some sleep in the last few weeks waking up and watching thunderstorms fizzle.

            Gary

  • sedsinkc

    Fissure eruption has begun in Iceland north of Bardarbunga’s caldera. A magma intrusion has been migrating north for several days away from Bardarbunga, and it has now broken through to the surface. Thankfully, it is north of the glaciers so that lessens the worry of a powerful eruption hurling ash high into the sky.

  • yewtrees

    I finally have a moment to post. Gary, based on the maps you posted, one is dated July 2 and the other is dated August 27. There are 56 days apart. I thought lrc is 47 days?? A lot of discrepancies!!!

    • Yewtrees, not sure if you have paid close attention. Super Bowl forecast: Accurate, based on 56-58 day cycle. Masters Golf Tournament forecast: Spot On, based on 56-58 day cycle. Kansas City’s winter storm forecasts from last winter: Accurate, based on 56-58 day cycle. Many, many others: Accurate based on a 56-58 day cycle. This tropical storm forecasted to develop near the Bahamas and move north intensifying into a hurricane: Accurate, based on the 56 to 58 day cycle. This year’s pattern has been in the 56 to 58 day cycle range. Did you see my presentation that I posted in the blog weeks ago? It never was a 47 day day cycle. The message has been consistent, 57 days!

      Gary

  • Hockeynut69

    Yewtrees I think this year’s cycle was closer to 57. I could be wrong but it seems like Gary had said around 57 and gave a range of 53-57 or 55-59. Regardless of the length, this pattern stinks.

  • sedsinkc

    Webcam of the Iceland fissure eruption. “http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga-2/”

    • sedsinkc

      Been monitoring this webcam, and have noticed the eruption intensity fluctuates noticeably from update to update. Last update, the camera field was completely black.

  • yewtrees

    At least someone disagreed with Farmers’ Almanac winter forecast.

    “http://www.cbsnews.com/news/brutal-winter-almanac-could-be-wrong-scientists-say/”

  • KUweatherman

    I’m to the point where I enjoy the other forecaster’s blogs more than Gary’s. Gets old seeing LRC this, LRC that. Who cares? Just talk about the weather that is happening now rather than trying to pat yourself on the back for something that *may* have also happened two months ago. Four mentions of Weather2020 in a five paragraph blog. Ridiculous.

  • Hume-Dude

    TWC reduced chances to 40%….I feel a miss coming on………again and again

  • Weatherfreak01

    KU, I agree. I don’t care about the LRC either way. But I do know that I like blogs that are about the weather, not the LRC. That is one of the reasons why I like JD’s blog posts so much. They are more like how the blog used to be.
    Hume-Dude, I personally don’t follow TWC as much. I find them wrong half the time. NWS still has us at 60% for tstorms today and tonight. At least they do for Lee’s Summit, MO.

    • Hume-Dude

      TWC is not absolute weather authority….but they had 60% for us yesterday now reduced to 40%… not a good trend