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Analyzing This Next Chance Of T-Storms

Good morning bloggers,

The weather pattern is quite interesting as we move into the middle of the week. This summer has been rather fascinating as the pattern continues to cycle regularly.  The same pattern that set up last fall continues, and it is reaching its weakest strength during these next two weeks. The jet stream reaches its weakest average strength and farthest north position by early August, and then there is a very gradual strengthening of this jet stream as we move into late August and September as fall approaches. Right now, it is pure summer.  So, for us to be entertained by the weather pattern consistently all summer long is a blessing for those of us fascinated by weather. Would you agree that it has been anything but boring all summer long?

We will begin today with a look at this surface map, and I will finish with a Kansas City weather time-line.  This surface map is valid at 00z Thursday, or 7 PM central time tomorrow. Where would you place the fronts and other surface features?

1

I plotted the map the way I see it, and you can see the cold fronts in blue, the warm fronts in red, and the troughs in black:

2

There is a wave of energy coming out of the monsoon region of the southwest and this will interact with other features to create the conditions for strong thunderstorms with the target area of southern Iowa and possibly northern Missouri Wednesday evening and Wednesday night. In recent weeks there has been a target of northern Missouri at times, and then it shifts over the souther part of the KC metro area at other times.  In between these two mesoscale regions has been dry areas that have been missed. Parts of northern Missouri have had 10″ of rain this month. KCI Airport has had 0.60″ during July. And, the south side of the KC metro area, just 30 miles south of KCI Airport have had nearly 7 inches of rain. Who will be the target this time? It certainly seems that it is once again northern Missouri’s turn again:

3

After this system moves by, high pressure will expand over the northern plains and a rather long five day stretch of days with cooler and drier air spreading out of the plains will develop.  The northeast will be the target for the stronger thunderstorms by Friday as this system moves offshore.

4

This high pressure area over northwest Wisconsin, as you can see above, is going to grow, expand, and dominate the pattern for a few days.  Between now and then there is this chance of thunderstorms and we will know a lot more about the set up tomorrow, or will we? Yesterday, it was discussed in our discussion on Weather2020 about a concern over how the thunderstorm event was forecasted for Saturday nights severe weather event that caused power outages that lasted three days in some areas and downed trees. The dew points reached 80 degrees in KC and this high pooling of low level moisture/energy fueled the intensification of the thunderstorms after 9 PM. It was one of those situations that had to be forecasted at the moment, or “nowcasted”.  Knowing that there would be a severe weather event in KC could have been forecasted with a “slight chance” even an hour before, that slight chance of it becoming that strong, but I just don’t think it could have been forecasted before then. There was a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued by the SPC, so it was being monitored closely.  And, now here we go with another chance Wednesday night. It is another big challenge.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  Sunny and hot with south winds 5-15 mph. High: 93° Heat Index:  101°
  • Tonight:  Clear and warm. Low:  73°
  • Wednesday:  Partly cloudy, hot, with increasingly high humidity.  High:  93° Heat Index: 103°
  • Wednesday Night:  Thunderstorms likely north of KC, over northern Missouri. A few may be severe with very heavy rain. The chance of thunderstorms increases farther south later Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience.

Gary

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