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Almost always in the wrong spot!

Good morning bloggers,

If you are like me and you look at the weather data multiple times a day, it is likely the most frustrating season ever.  I remember years where it is frustrating once in a while when a storm just barely misses you, but this year everything seems to miss us. Even when we get a “hit” like in the past few weeks with a storm bringing us rain, the rain misses part of the viewing area so we don’t get to share in the excitement.  This year we just are in the wrong spot, and it isn’t even close.  I am not that surprised as it was part of my winter forecast. We are far from one of the hot spots this winter. And, the Arctic Oscillation never really went deep negative, and the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has been near neutral to positive all winter as well. Without a lot of blocking over Canada we haven’t been able to get the jet stream to dip consistently far enough for a storm to sneak in here.  Yesterday, I discussed the potential for snow with the late next week storm, and as soon as we think it will happen and mention it in the blog….boom….it goes north and now the models are consistent with a north track. Maybe if I take a different angle today it will shift back south.  It will be quite frustrating if a functional snow storm goes just north of us leaving Kansas City with just a flurry. We will discuss below.

Today, we have a cold front moving our way and it will arrive tonight.  A band of snow will likely track across Iowa, but we are not in the right spot, the theme of  today’s thoughts:15

Temperatures will likely warm very nicely with a northwest to west wind ahead of the cold front today. Expect a high in the 50s.  A cold blast arrives overnight, but a big warming trend is expected Monday ahead of a weak and disorganized storm system on Monday:

1

 

The surface forecast, above, shows the weak Monday storm just passing by with barely a hint of precipitation.  I am not going to say what I usually say which is, we will have to watch it as only a slight change and we could have a storm system Monday.  I didn’t say that! It will likely pass by without much precipitation as it organizes off to the east.

And, then, this thing:

2

This next storm is due in later next week and has all kinds of potential to produce a major winter storm, but the trend has been for it to track just north of us. That is a tremendous amount of snow in Nebraska and Iowa. Maybe if I say we will only see a short band of rain and thunderstorms and then only a flurry it will then shift back south.  Just sayin….as it is really frustrating with winter just weeks away of closing down.

How much snow have we had this season?  Here are the lowest seasonal totals in Kansas City:

  • Winter 2011-2012:  3.9″
  • Winter 1922-1923:  4.5″
  • This Winter:  4.7″
  • Winter 1949-1950:  5.5″
  • Winter 1988-1989 & 1994-1995:  6.9″

Do I seem frustrated today?  I will try to get my weather attitude together.  Have a great day and let me know what you think.

Gary

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68 comments to Almost always in the wrong spot!

  • Greenstein

    By your comments above, I’m guessing the potential storm for late next week is not going to materialize as thought?

    • Oh, it is likely going to materialize, but it may be frustratingly just north of us.

      • Greenstein

        Agreed. My comment was specific to the metro area. I’m originally from Omaha, and sometimes I miss living there as the temperatures and precipitation are much more conducive to a fan of winter weather, even in periods like we’re experiencing now.

        I mentioned this in a comment to the blog on Tuesday, but I think what we’ve seen the past 2 winters and last summer, is a sign of things to come for many years. This isn’t based on the LRC, advanced tools, or anything scientific, I just think with the extremes we’ve been seeing all over the place, is setting up the KC metro area for a historic, long-term run of dry, warm, windy winters with next to no snowfall and long, hot, dry, windy summers with little beneficial rainfall.

        While I realize a mere 2 and 3 winters ago we had snow totals of 30″+, we’ve obviously taken a turn for the extreme opposite and in the past 12-18 months, there is absolutely no sign of things changing, at least in my amatuer opinion. It’ll be interesting to follow.

  • Keep the faith Gary. We are into the most dynamic point in our winter for storms. My birthday is the 26th of Mar, I remember snow on my bday, and well afterwards. Granted, we’ve been warm though… I say we WILL get(at least) one in the next month. I’m not writing off next weeks storms either. The law of probabilities means sooner or later, it must happen.

  • Jerry

    What storm (dates) from previous cycles matches the big storm on the map for next week?

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    As the saying goes, If we didn’t have bad luck, we would have no luck at all.

    We should not be missing every single one of these storms. I guess those of us who said no more snow are more in the right than the wrong. No sight of those 2-4 snows.

    Gary, what would you say is your worse weather prediction? Saying we would get 2-4 snows in February, or in 2010 when you said we would get 20″ of snow that winter and we got 40+?

  • Bananny

    It would be nice to have a snow storm, but rain is good too. To look on the positive side, we have had more this winter than last year.

  • HeatMiser

    Gary, how confident are you that it will go just north of us. It’s a week away, so is there a good chance it will hit us directly also? How would you put the likely hood in percentages of it going north? 50-50 60-40 70-30? A week is a long way off to predict exact paths of storms, so I’m wondering what are the odds it will go just north as it is currently saying?

  • Todd

    Interesting… in all the times of keeping records, only twice has KC received less than 5″ of snow in a winter. Last year was time #2. This year could be #3. Gives you an indication if the severity of this drought.

  • rred95

    Well i guess the only thing we have going for us is its a week out, lot of time. Maybe mother nature will lift this dome over us one time this winter.

  • wxguesser3000

    Gary,

    It sounds as though you actually believe the models 7 days out! They will change back and forth a hundred times between now and next Thursday. They won’t even get an onshore sample of the jet until next week.

    If you take a look at the Europeon model (again, if you believe it), the surface low is much farther south than it is on the GFS and the dynamics are much better for snow in our area. Not only has the Europeon been consistent with this storm and is generally better at this time range, that’s an awfully powerful jet diving south along the west coast, which would favor a slower, more closed-off upper level low, similar to the Euro.

    Don’t give up hope yet. Combined with plenty of wind, someone will have to deal with a blizzard-like storm next week.

    • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

      I think the premise of today is to reverse psychology ourselves and the weather. Instead of talking about a chance we are putting on our rally caps and going straight negative in hopes it will reverse the curse.

  • Dobber

    Gary, on the long ranger it shows a high of 57 next week. That is 15-20 degrees warmer than any other news outlet in Kansas City. What are you seeing that they aren’t?

  • sedsinkc

    If this was not such an unusual winter, I’d say “don’t give up yet” on next Thursday’s snow potential. However, given the reality of this winter, I say “forget it” and let’s hope for some rain.

  • rodneykan

    Gary, I feel your frustrations again this year. Like you I love the weather when it is exciting. Well another year of border and nothing. The long and short of it all that concerns me is the drought. I just hope we get enough rain this spring and summer. Unfortunately Gary I think we are going to have to wait until our next cycle sets up this fall to have some winter weather excitement. Something tells me 2013 / 2014 will be our winter to remember.
    Rodney,
    Kansas City, Kansas

  • mattmaisch

    12Z GFS continues same trend. Enormous snowfall potential with this one. 2 feet plus, but all of it falls to our north. Ugggh.

  • sedsinkc

    Next Thursday’s storm looks similar to the Dec. 19/20 storm on 12z GFS, just a hair farther north than that storm. Decent rain and possibly thunderstorms here in the WAA regime starting early Thursday morning, a blizzard across Iowa and Nebraska, severe outbreak well to our south, and still the possibility we could get a small snow accumulation Thursday afternoon/evening as the storm intensifies and the deformation band wraps around its western flank accompanied by strong winds and temps crashing well below freezing. Whatever ends up happening with this storm’s track, it’s likely we will get a shot of below average temperatures in its wake.

  • sedsinkc

    Surface low pressure forecast at 984 mb, 29.06 inches Hg, next Thursday at midnight in N Illinois. Storm will be a wind machine if this verifies.

  • McCabe58

    Shouldn’t you know that answer by now Jerry? If you don’t believe in the lrc please, just let it be. Coming on here everyday asking when this storm that is showing up was in the last cycles is pretty annoying. If you don’t see it looking back at the past forecasts then alright. When is the disbelief in the lrc going to stop? I’m not 100% sold on it either, but honestly I could careless about it. It’s not like Gary is making forecasts for more than a week at a time anyways. So Gary really isn’t even using it, except on the blog. One day he will make that peer review that you so longingly want. Not trying to start anything, only stating the obvious. No one on here with any education can 100% believe in the lrc.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Right now based off GFS we are looking at 3-4 inches. But that’s if it all sticks. It all won’t. So looks like another dusting for us. But time will tell.

    • mattmaisch

      I just don’t see where you’re getting those numbers. I’m not saying you’re wrong, but how are you coming up with 3-4″ of snow, regardless of whether or not it sticks? The profile suggests rainfall until the last .10 of an inch of moisture as I see it. Just curious..

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    We must be reading models differently. I am seeing wrap around moisture in the form Of .5 to 1.0

    • mattmaisch

      Wow, check this out. This is the exact same map, from the exact same model (GFS) at the exact same time, and look at the differences between the NWS and IWM depictions. Odd.. This would explain the differences in how we see the data. Thought I was losing my mind..

      “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=1000_500_thick&cycle=12&image=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_180_1000_500_thick.gif”

      “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013021412&var=PCPTHKPRS_1000-500mb&hour=180″

      • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

        Yea. I am using the ncep NOAA site from now on. Instant weather maps has been off all year.

      • sedsinkc

        Since each model is actually run multiple times, plugging in different values for variables in the algorithm, it looks like these two sources are using different solutions in generating their datasets. Would like to know why IWM chooses to use a different solution from NWS for its primary forecast map. The precip forecast for our region on the IWM 180 hour looks very much like the precip forecast from the NWS 186 hour for 1000-500 mb thickness.

      • MikeL

        The IWM map is showing 6-hr precip. The NCEP map is showing 12-precip.

      • Jerry

        Your link to the NCEP map is showing the 12-hour accumulated precip, while your instantweathermap link is only showing 6-hour accumulated precip- thus the difference.

  • hushpook

    Welcome to drought city.

  • I see some hope. Several more systems lined up behind this one as well. And this last run appears to have moved the low closer to us. That distance is nothing 1 week out. Of course, we’ve seen this play out so many times, it’s hard to keep any hope. lol

  • mattmaisch

    Thanks for the help guys. Saw the 12 hr/6 hr difference. My fault on that one. By the way, the 12Z ECMWF hammers at least part of the viewing area with heavy snow next week, and it is VERY CLOSE to taking a perfect track for KC. This certainly looks like an extremely intense storm. Even though we are a week away, the models are pretty consistent on that part. As for the track, I guess we’ll see, but this latest Euro is promising if you love snow.

  • FARMERMIKE

    LOOKS LIKE ITS SHIFTING BACK SOUTH SOME!!!!!!!!!

    • Maybe my reverse psychology worked on Mother Nature? Let’s not get too excited about this, but the European model and Canadian model took a favorable track for snow here.

      And, there is a chance tomorrow evening as well, of a quick band of snow.

  • HeatMiser

    I predict 8-10 inches, up to a foot locally…big snowstorm!!!!

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    I’m staying negative until the snow falls lol. I want the year to be reversed.

  • rred95

    After last winter and this winter my motto is “I will believe it when I see it”

  • plowboy87

    Any accumulation with tomorrow nights event?

  • Kole Christian

    Rred95

    Show-Me-State

  • Kole Christian

    Maybe if Emaw gives us his normal forecast then we might get a little but of snow.

    • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

      If Emaw says it will snow then the true reverse psychology will have been successful…we still have 7 days to go…keep reversing the curse I say.

  • Emaw

    Rain with a little bit of snow on the backside, trace of accumulation at best. Tomorrow night , JACK SQUAT!

    • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

      Love it…keep the negative waves coming. I’m fully on board.

      Jack squat I say…c’mon people jump on the negativity train, reverse the curse.

  • MikeL

    You guys want a good laugh? Check out this 18z GFS snowfall forecast as of 6PM next Thursday. Which side of I-70 are you on? hehe…

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013021418&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=174″

  • stl78

    just got back from La Crosse Wisconsin. It snowed a little bit there this mornin..it’s a beautiful town if you ever get a chance to check it out!

  • stjoeattorney

    WELL WE GET SURPRISED ONCE A YEAR THIS THING DIGGS SOUTH 100 MILES AND STJOE IS IN FOR 12-16 INCHES, KC NORTH 8-12 SOUTH 4-6, IT CAN HAPPEN, THIS YEAR MOST EVENTS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACT BY 75-100 MILES TIME FOR PAY BACK. PLUS IT WILL MELT FAST WE HAVE ADDED 125 MINUTES OF DAYLITE SINCE 22 DECEMBER.

  • Emaw

    Afpilot , not negative at all in my view, rain next week would be great. My Jack Squat forecast is for tomorrow night and I’m going all Joe Namath on that one and guaranteeing it!

    • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

      Lol, maybe Dimagio it and call your shot…tonight and tomorrow night are fleeting at best for any precip, I agree. The negativity comment is on the storm track, I think our negative waves are pulling it south.

      That’s all, just turning my rally cap to the side.

  • dpollard

    Let me summarize any talk of snow here this year….

    In the words of Public Enemy…”Don’t Believe the Hype”!

  • HeatMiser

    Hmmm….it seems Gary forgot to do a blog entry this evening.

  • Skylar

    If you take the latest NAM at face value, we could get some light accumulations tomorrow night.

  • Kcchamps

    the latest GFS continues to trend next weeks storm further south

  • Kcchamps

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013021500&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=171″

    latest GFS

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    GFS is lying to us. Always has always will… Reminds me of this girl I once knew. She was just as fickle and never have a straight answer to anything. That was my second wife…

  • Kole Christian

    If seen, storms like that before, cut the total in half, I bet that’s actually what we’ll get next week.

  • Brandon

    Okay, so I’m as frustrated as most with the lack of frozen precipitation this winter. I’m also equally as frustrated at those who refuse to give Gary and the Crew a break on the blog. I’ve been a visitor since the blogs birth, but this is a first time post. (I know… Long overdue, but I digress.) The LRC is not an exact science. Gary has never introduced it as fact, but as theory. If you look at the forecast maps in rough two month intervals, give or take a week, over the years storms have shown repetition, although always not of the same intensity or in the EXACT same location. It would be foolish to believe Gary is on a fool’s errand in his LRC research. One last thing; forecasting snowfall amounts to the inch is difficult for an experienced meteorologist right before a system swings through let alone pre-winter season. Remember, one inch of melted down wintry precipitation could equate to a wide range of depths in terms of actual wintry precipitation.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Light snow falling in PC. Quick flurry according to radar.

  • mmack66

    Got a pretty good dusting going on here in Riverside. Been snowing for about 30 minutes.