Good morning bloggers,
If you are like me and you look at the weather data multiple times a day, it is likely the most frustrating season ever. I remember years where it is frustrating once in a while when a storm just barely misses you, but this year everything seems to miss us. Even when we get a “hit” like in the past few weeks with a storm bringing us rain, the rain misses part of the viewing area so we don’t get to share in the excitement. This year we just are in the wrong spot, and it isn’t even close. I am not that surprised as it was part of my winter forecast. We are far from one of the hot spots this winter. And, the Arctic Oscillation never really went deep negative, and the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has been near neutral to positive all winter as well. Without a lot of blocking over Canada we haven’t been able to get the jet stream to dip consistently far enough for a storm to sneak in here. Yesterday, I discussed the potential for snow with the late next week storm, and as soon as we think it will happen and mention it in the blog….boom….it goes north and now the models are consistent with a north track. Maybe if I take a different angle today it will shift back south. It will be quite frustrating if a functional snow storm goes just north of us leaving Kansas City with just a flurry. We will discuss below.
Temperatures will likely warm very nicely with a northwest to west wind ahead of the cold front today. Expect a high in the 50s. A cold blast arrives overnight, but a big warming trend is expected Monday ahead of a weak and disorganized storm system on Monday:
The surface forecast, above, shows the weak Monday storm just passing by with barely a hint of precipitation. I am not going to say what I usually say which is, we will have to watch it as only a slight change and we could have a storm system Monday. I didn’t say that! It will likely pass by without much precipitation as it organizes off to the east.
And, then, this thing:
This next storm is due in later next week and has all kinds of potential to produce a major winter storm, but the trend has been for it to track just north of us. That is a tremendous amount of snow in Nebraska and Iowa. Maybe if I say we will only see a short band of rain and thunderstorms and then only a flurry it will then shift back south. Just sayin….as it is really frustrating with winter just weeks away of closing down.
How much snow have we had this season? Here are the lowest seasonal totals in Kansas City:
- Winter 2011-2012: 3.9″
- Winter 1922-1923: 4.5″
- This Winter: 4.7″
- Winter 1949-1950: 5.5″
- Winter 1988-1989 & 1994-1995: 6.9″
Do I seem frustrated today? I will try to get my weather attitude together. Have a great day and let me know what you think.