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Active Weekend of Weather

Good Friday afternoon,

The weather today will be spectacular with highs near 80, abundant sunshine and not a ton if wind.  This is the only calm day out of the next 3 days.  Lets go through the weekend one piece at a time.

SATURDAY MORNING:

Humid air from the Gulf of Mexico will be flowing north as a warm front forms near I-70.  This is setting the stage for the chance of morning thunderstorms on Saturday in eastern Kansas and western Missouri.  These do not look severe, although a few could produce quarter sized hail.  The timing is 6 AM to noon and would affect morning events.  Temperatures may be in the 60s to near 70 at noon, then jump to the low 80s, depends on extent of thunderstorms.

1

SATURDAY AFTERNOON:

These thunderstorms will move of to the east, then the afternoon will be mostly sunny, windy and warm.  Highs will reach the 90s out in central and western Kansas.  Any thunderstorms Saturday evening will likely occur well to the west across central Oklahoma to central and western Kansas.  We will have to see of they move in around midnight.

2

SUNDAY MORNING:

This is when things get going.  The main storm comes out into the Plains.  Thunderstorms will likely be forming in the morning near the dry line from southern Kansas into Oklahoma.  Since this is morning, how severe will they be?  We may have a few showers and thunderstorms.  If we do, there is a slight chance they are severe with hail the main threat.

3

SUNDAY AFTERNOON:

The big question is how severe will the thunderstorms become across our area?  If the morning thunderstorms become widespread and move across our area 10 AM-4 PM and this becomes the main event, then we would see heavy rain, possibly large hail and strong straight line winds as the severe threats.  Temperatures would be held down, so the severe threat would lean in the slight direction.  However, we would have to watch these thunderstorms closely as there is so much energy aloft that they could transform to widespread severe thunderstorms regardless of  surface temperatures.

4

As you can see this solution has tons of rain and thunderstorms by 10 AM.  While, these could be severe, the threat would be lowered as it it more of a widespread rain and thunderstorm event with cooler temperatures.

5

The main thunderstorm event, according to this would be around 2-4 PM.  Since, temperatures would not be allowed to warm to the 80s, the amount of severe weather could be limited.

6

By 7 PM the main event is moving quickly to the east.

7

Now all of the above being said, there is another scenario.  We do get morning and early afternoon thunderstorms, but they are not that extensive.  The main dry line is still to our west 3-5 PM with a wedge of temperatures rising to 75-83.  This could ignite significant severe thunderstorms  3-5 PM to our west then these would move in 4-8 PM.  So, the question is how much rain and thunderstorms come through during the day.  If there is a lot of them, then instability will be limited and the late afternoon thunderstorms would not form, or be minimal.  If the day thunderstorms are not much, then we could have a severe event later Sunday.

Needless to say, it will be an active day and we will be all over this and updating as the weekend goes on on 41 ActionNews and on line on the blog.

Have a great weekend and review your severe weather plans.

Jeff Penner

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49 comments to Active Weekend of Weather

  • sedsinkc

    Thanks for the update, Jeff.
    Whatever happens Sunday, I highly doubt KC will get the worst of what this storm dishes out. The expected lack of a cap locally on Sunday means a better chance of widespread, significant rainfall and less worry about very severe storms with very large hail or violent tornadoes here. If I lived in eastern OK or Arkansas I would be concerned, however.

  • Craig

    In 57 days, a return of this storm in mid-June would present MUCH more significant issues.

    • Hume-Dude

      Craig-by that time in June this next cycle system will probably be in Canada. we could still see a nice front roll through but the direct impacts will be far to the north in the Dakotas

      • Drought Miser

        Yes I’m thinking by mid June next year’s cycle starts to come into focus and this year’s cycle is washed away in the Summer Duldrums(dog days)

  • Pete Capone

    Jeff, that was a fantastic write up and explanation. Thank you.

  • Farmgirl

    I am a little perplexed on NWS having us in a slight risk area on Sunday, but all media outlets are calling for signifant severe weather on Sunday in the viewing area.

    With so much emphasis on significant weather such as large hail and straight line winds why isn’t the warning area in a moderate or high risk severe weather area? Looks to me like a large portion of the plains is going to be under the gun so to speak.

    So why even have different classifications for severe weather? What consitutes Slight, Moderate or High chance labels?

    • AW

      Because, and I’m not an expert, but, people pay more attention to something that says “Enhanced” than they do to something that says “Slight”.

    • Pete Capone

      You have to understand that the percentages play out for any given point in the forecast zone. The chances that many will see a severe storm are not great. It’s based on severe weather within 25 miles of a point.

  • gwh64063

    Jeff, I echo Pete’s comment. Excellent write-up!

    Gary in Lee’s Summit

  • mowermike

    The latest rainfall event totals from my rain gauges:

    3rd rain event: + is above average for the month – is below average for these listed locations.

    1-29 and Barry Road: (Platte county) .75 inches -
    152 and Indiana: (western Clay county) 1.47 inches +
    435 and 96th street: (Clay county) 1.39 inches +
    NKC(1 mile north of Downtown(S. Clay) .1.14 inches -
    I35 and 95th street(Johnson county KS.) 2.1 inches +
    I70 and 27th street(Jackson county Mo.) 1.78 inches +
    1-70 and Little Blue Parkway)(Independence) 1.53 +
    119th and Roe (Leawood KS. (Johnson county KS) 1.76 +
    I35 and the Holt exit(Clinton county) 1.34 +
    69HWY and 135th(Overland Park) 1.89 +

    Once again the NW side of the city had the lessor amounts.

    5 days left in the month…if the weekend storm pans out, we should all finish above average and some well above.(maybe not KCI, they need about 1.75 to get to average) A few of the above locations are at 4+ inches now.

    • sedsinkc

      Good rain totals Mike. If this coming storms gets cut off and spins around in the right location, KC could get a few days of rain out of it. Not saying it will happen, but it is possible.

  • sedsinkc

    Does anyone remember the stormy Sunday of March 12, 2006? Parts of KC had round after round of thunderstorms, some quite severe, that day. I lived in Liberty then and that day I saw golfball size hail in a morning storm accompanied by a rotating wall cloud I could see to my south, then an afternoon storm with golfball to baseball size hail and another tornado warning. I witnessed five storms with hail that Sunday. There was a tornado in Sedalia, Mo (one of several there in the past decade). I remember it was not very warm that day, 60s I think. The atmospheric shear and instability must have been “off the charts” here on that Sunday in March 2006.

    • calikufan

      hells yes I do! I was a freshman at KU living in the dorms and took a direct hit from the microburst/gustnado. An amazing, yet terrifying day. It blew one of the residence hall’s A/C units off the top and it crushed a car. It also knocked our tornado sirens out and we had a warning later that day so the police went down the streets broadcasting a tornado was approaching town. Seriously one of the most entertaining and scary severe weather days I have ever experienced.

      • gwh64063

        Calikufan,

        I remember well a storm we had at KU in late August or early September of 1993 during my freshman year. The storm produced huge hail and a tornado not that far from the dorms. The sirens went off and all hell broke loose that afternoon. Very scary but exciting. Everyone was told to go to the first floor in Ellsworth Hall, where I lived that year.

    • Farmgirl

      Yep, I remember that day. My home was hit with a F0 tornado in the early afternoon…ripped off the west roof, demolished out buildings, took down fencing and then that evening straight line finished off anything that survived the tornado. I DO NOT want to relieve that nightmare.

  • frigate

    Excellent write up Jeff…thanks so much!! Not to disagree with you mowermike…but my station in SW Grain Valley, I think got missed about by everything yesterday as far as the heavier storms go and picked up only .58, however my monthly total is 3.12, so with whatever falls this weekend should be above 4in for the month.

  • jasonatt

    The last time this set up occured there was enough time between the events for warming. I think the eastern progression of the storm was slower than expected then too.

  • Jeff in St. Joe

    Thanks for the update Jeff!

    Anyone think we’ll be included in the moderate risk by the time Sunday gets here? I wouldn’t be surprised to see a high risk situation somewhere down in Arkansas.

  • Kole Christian

    Morning storms almost always keep the afternoon storms under control.

  • f00dl3

    I think it’s likely we will be put into a Moderate risk by the overnight Day 1 outlook SPC issues Sunday morning.

    High risk will be NE TX, N LA, AR, and E OK.

  • Drought Miser

    Nice write up Jeff!! I’m with you on the wait and see deal there’s really no way to know this early what Sunday morning’s thunderstorms will linger and stabilize our atmosphere it’s a wait and see and keep an eye to the sky kind of setup for sure!!

  • luvsno

    Wow…Gary sure has been taking a lot of Fridays off lately. Must be nice. I think he gets 6-8 weeks of vacation each year…or more. Guess that goes with being the Most Accurate met in KC. :)

  • f00dl3

    Latest NAM does pick up on maybe more a tornado threat here in Kansas City with SIGTOR paramaters around 4 and CAPE values ~2000 j/KG during a small window ~1:30-2:30 PM Sunday – though it quickly shifts to our northeast. Radar simulation shows some weak showers at that time – which could be hints of supercell initiation right on top of us. Still shows maximum tornado potential over the deep south with Much of Arkansas, Northeast Texas, and Northwest Louisiana between 8 and 10.

  • Farmgirl

    Ok, 20 minutes of “fire” coverage is excessive. A buidling is on fire and fire fighers are working it. Let’s move on to real news and the weather for the weekend until more details can be reported. Geesh!

    • sedsinkc

      Did you see how long their live coverage went on when the chimp got loose at the KC Zoo? Ridiculous.

      • batman

        I agree Seds. It was as if the chimps were all over the city creating havoc and on the highways and climbing the buildings downtown like it was King Kong!

    • luvsno

      Make that one hour…it is BREAKING NEWS ! They do this EVERY TIME …whether it be a chase, or whatever. It is ridiculous. 5 pm news wont happen now,..breaking news….over an hour of it. Turning to the furry little animal channel . Bye bye KSHB….this has gotten so old. Excessive in the last few months.

  • Drought Miser

    Whoa that fire was nuts good job to the firefighters they knocked it down in a hurry in this wind!!

  • kellyinkc

    that coverage is all about the drama. They want to catch a dramatic rescue, or huge explosion etc. Lets hope a PDS is not issued Sunday.

  • mgsports

    Lezak just said Sunday more Sun then Cloud cover so you know that means all those will happen.

  • melafinatu

    Unfortunately this is what news has become: sensationalism. CNN is still reporting the Malaysian airplane story as breaking news. However, I truly believe Gary and the team love meteorology and have a passion for getting it right. I do think it’s unfortunate they don’t seem willing to go out on a limb for fear of backlash. We all need to remember that while there are excellent scientific tools at their disposal, it’s still predicting the future. Give them credit where it’s due, and don’t just sit around waiting for a mistake

  • Jeff in St. Joe

    I asked this earlier, and will ask again. If Gary thinks we’re going to get more sun than clouds on Sunday…. does anyone expect that we’ll be put in a moderate risk? Any high risk areas expected?

  • batman

    All the action will be far to the south just like I forecasted 2 days ago. BOOM POW WOW.

    The problem is that the local weather and national weather for that matter has to “sensationalize” the forecast for ratings. It gets old. Yesterday Gary was saying Sunday would be epic and that the weather team would be all over it this weekend. Now it’s well going to go south but we still have to watch it. Blah Blah Blah. No Gary didn;t use the word epic I am paraphrasing what he said before the Lezak army gets all bent out of shape and starts the nuclear code gathering. Sunday will just be some good old fashioned thunderstorms. Enjoy the weekend folks!

  • mgsports

    Yes to higher rusk and old fashion Thunderstorms way to the north.

  • Jeff in St. Joe

    batman should get the ban hammer. He provides nothing to this forum.

  • mgsports

    The ABC station here just said Tennis Ball size Hail on Sunday and showed the Greatest Risk all of KS side of Metro to,just past KCMO so Sedalia and so on slight risk.

  • mgsports

    Lezak just said lots of things . It’s completed Forecast it depends on if we have Cloud cover and he mentioned NOAA tells them to announce Moderate Risk for area tomorrow.

  • HeatMiser

    This is not a tornado scenario, this is a chance for large hail if you are caught under an isolated severe storm Sunday. An isolated tornado threat means very minimal chance for a smaller tornado. Here is what the NWS is saying.

    THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
    SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
    SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
    VERY LARGE HAIL…STRONG WINDS AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES. KEEP
    UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS CONCERNING THE SEVERE WEATHER
    POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

  • Fat_Louie

    That girl on Fox at 10 is cute, KSHB should steal her, Christa in the afternoon, Jadi at 6 and that girl at 10…there you have it. Christa could be with her kids more, ratings go up, other things go up and everyone is happy.

  • Drought Miser

    This setup looks like were in the northern rain shield so heavy rain could be our biggest problem although the SPC has us in enhanced threat in this mornings outlook for Sunday, wondering if the cyclonic like twist of this tightly wrapped system means we may see Tropical Storm ish rain wrapped twisters I dont like that type of system!!

  • Skylar

    The storms building west of the metro look like they’ll provide just enough rain to make it more humid today. There are some interesting clouds outside though.