Good Friday afternoon,
The weather today will be spectacular with highs near 80, abundant sunshine and not a ton if wind. This is the only calm day out of the next 3 days. Lets go through the weekend one piece at a time.
Humid air from the Gulf of Mexico will be flowing north as a warm front forms near I-70. This is setting the stage for the chance of morning thunderstorms on Saturday in eastern Kansas and western Missouri. These do not look severe, although a few could produce quarter sized hail. The timing is 6 AM to noon and would affect morning events. Temperatures may be in the 60s to near 70 at noon, then jump to the low 80s, depends on extent of thunderstorms.
These thunderstorms will move of to the east, then the afternoon will be mostly sunny, windy and warm. Highs will reach the 90s out in central and western Kansas. Any thunderstorms Saturday evening will likely occur well to the west across central Oklahoma to central and western Kansas. We will have to see of they move in around midnight.
This is when things get going. The main storm comes out into the Plains. Thunderstorms will likely be forming in the morning near the dry line from southern Kansas into Oklahoma. Since this is morning, how severe will they be? We may have a few showers and thunderstorms. If we do, there is a slight chance they are severe with hail the main threat.
The big question is how severe will the thunderstorms become across our area? If the morning thunderstorms become widespread and move across our area 10 AM-4 PM and this becomes the main event, then we would see heavy rain, possibly large hail and strong straight line winds as the severe threats. Temperatures would be held down, so the severe threat would lean in the slight direction. However, we would have to watch these thunderstorms closely as there is so much energy aloft that they could transform to widespread severe thunderstorms regardless of surface temperatures.
As you can see this solution has tons of rain and thunderstorms by 10 AM. While, these could be severe, the threat would be lowered as it it more of a widespread rain and thunderstorm event with cooler temperatures.
The main thunderstorm event, according to this would be around 2-4 PM. Since, temperatures would not be allowed to warm to the 80s, the amount of severe weather could be limited.
By 7 PM the main event is moving quickly to the east.
Now all of the above being said, there is another scenario. We do get morning and early afternoon thunderstorms, but they are not that extensive. The main dry line is still to our west 3-5 PM with a wedge of temperatures rising to 75-83. This could ignite significant severe thunderstorms 3-5 PM to our west then these would move in 4-8 PM. So, the question is how much rain and thunderstorms come through during the day. If there is a lot of them, then instability will be limited and the late afternoon thunderstorms would not form, or be minimal. If the day thunderstorms are not much, then we could have a severe event later Sunday.
Needless to say, it will be an active day and we will be all over this and updating as the weekend goes on on 41 ActionNews and on line on the blog.
Have a great weekend and review your severe weather plans.