Active Weather Pattern, Day 1

Good Saturday bloggers,

The active weather pattern we have been talking about has arrived. This is day 1 of about 10-14 where we will see rain and thunderstorms. Flooding is going to be our biggest issue.

The severe thunderstorms in the western Plains Friday evolved into an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System, cluster of rain and thunderstorms) then moved into eastern Kansas and western Missouri this morning. This area is weakening, however, a rapidly increasing area of rain and thunderstorms with a series of waves was travelling up I-35 from Oklahoma and Texas early Saturday. This area and the one already in the region will join forces bringing our region many rounds of rain and thunderstorms through the day. The severe threat is low as the morning rain is keeping temperatures down.

This is a fascinating set up as our thunderstorms move east and weaken, but are about to be joined and energized by a series of thunderstorm producing disturbances from the south.

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SATURDAY 12-6 PM: This is when we have the best chance for widespread rain and thunderstorms. Very heavy downpours will be occurring with the chance of some strong winds and large hail. The severe threat looks low at this time due to cooler air being caused by the morning clouds, showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be in the 60s to low 70s.

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SATURDAY 6-9 PM: This is when we have the best chance for a break in the rain as the disturbances from Oklahoma and Texas move north. The main storm will be rapidly approaching at this time, so that is why it is tough to say how long the break will last.

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SATURDAY 9 PM-SUNDAY 5 AM: More rounds  of rain and thunderstorms will be likely as the main storm moves by. Much cooler air will be moving in from the northwest.

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SUNDAY: Showers will linger until 7-9 AM, then the rest of the day will be mostly cloudy, dry and cooler with highs in the 60s. The sun should peek out during the afternoon, making for some nice weather. The cold front that sweeps through later tonight will turn into a warm front across the southwest Plains.

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MONDAY: It will be a mostly dry and cool day with lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s. The warm front in the southwest Plains Sunday will be surging north as a strong storm system drops into the southwest USA. This will generate many areas of rain and thunderstorms with very heavy downpours. The severe threat will be low as it will be too cool, but the flooding threat will be high. Oklahoma and Texas will have the best chance of severe weather.

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MONDAY NIGHT: There will be waves of rain and very heavy thunderstorms. Flash flooding is looking like a problem as several inches of rain are possible.

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TUESDAY: The warm front will move by as a dry line pushes out into central Kansas. This may generate a line of thunderstorms. Normally, I would say this will be severe, but the temperatures may not be warm enough due to all of the rain and thunderstorms from the morning. We will need to watch this closely.

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RAINFALL FORECAST NEXT 10 DAYS: There will easily be 5″ to 10″ of rain for most locations. Some will see 10″ to 15″. This data has the heaviest located over southeast Kansas. But, that could end up just about anywhere.

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In summary we are going to have many rounds of rain and thunderstorms the next 10 days. The first storm is for today and tonight, the second is for Monday night and Tuesday, followed by many others.¬† Flash and river flooding will likely be issues. There will be severe weather risks as well., but it looks like flooding is going to be the main problem for us. “TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN.”

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Stay safe and have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

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