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Active Severe Weather Days

Good Wednesday night bloggers,

This afternoon has been quite active with severe weather in Iowa as a weak front moves east and there is just enough shear with high dew points to create quite a day of weather.   There have been several tornado reports as of 5:30 PM.

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There is a Tornado Watch until 10 PM for Iowa and far northern Missouri.  As of the writing of this blog there were still many active Tornado Warnings.

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Here is an impressive visible satellite picture of the thunderstorms.  You can see the overshooting tops of the thunderstorms as they cast shadows on the anvils below.  An overshooting top is an indication of intense rising motion, so much so, that the cumulonimbus clouds shoots into the lowest levels of the stable stratosphere.

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These thunderstorms will likely move east-southeast through the night and weaken, staying well north of I-70.  There is a chance for some thunderstorms Thursday morning as an MCS tries to get going in northwest Kansas.  This MCS, or lack of one, will have an impact on the set up for Thursday evening.  The data still suggests a warm front/stalled front will be lingering around or north of I-70 as a surface low is over central Kansas.  This is a potent set up for widespread thunderstorms and severe weather as disturbances track west to east across Kansas and Missouri.  There is still much uncertainty on the details of how this will evolve and we will know much more Thursday morning as we will be able to see how any morning thunderstorms are affecting the set up.  We would say the best chance of widespread severe weather along the I-70 corridor is going to be tomorrow evening or night.

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This moves out early Friday leading to a nice Saturday and Sunday, but a new system will affect Monday into the 4th of July.  Hopefully, rain will get out of here by fireworks time and we will have more on this in the next few days.

Have a good night.

Jeff Penner

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