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Accumulations Of A Mixture Of Precipitation Likely Tonight

Good morning bloggers,

Winter Weather Advisory Through Thursday Morning

The setup for some rather wild weather will be in place later today.  An incredible 112° temperature contrast is likely going to develop between 20 below zero in Canada and 92° near the Mexico/USA border in south Texas. Take a look:

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This week has been fascinating, and it is only Wednesday.  In Kansas City, it has gone from 59° early Monday morning to the 20s Monday afternoon.  Freezing drizzle and freezing light rain lead to a few slick spots on Tuesday. Then, there were a few spots that had some boundary layer snow with enough to coat the ground white over parts of Overland Park during the evening last night.  The main storm is now going to rip out into the plains tonight and Thursday and it may produce this:

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A strong upper level storm will be moving out into the plains and the energy is going to create a surface set up somewhat like this below.  This is the RGEM model valid at 3 AM tonight.  Thunderstorms will be in progress over southern Missouri into eastern Oklahoma, a few of which may be severe.  Farther north band of rain-freezing rain-sleet-snow will be developing and rather rapidly moving across eastern and central Kansas into western Missouri and Iowa.  There is a chance that the middle of this band will be quite heavy and accumulations of ice, sleet, and snow are likely near Kansas City. Around 1 to 2 inches total is possible. Add in the crashing temperatures and winds potentially gusting up to 45 mph, it will create many problems in the early morning hours of Thursday.

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Yes, this set up fits the LRC perfectly as it was around 98 days ago when we had an outbreak of severe weather in this same general area, just a bit farther south on Halloween.  The risk today looks like this:

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Here are the Storm Reports from two LRC cycles ago:

181031_rpts_filteredThere was a severe weather outbreak on Halloween due south of where this risk is today.  The weather pattern is cycling according to the LRC.  The Weather2020 team predicted Tropical Storm Gordon 8-months before there was even a cloud approaching the Gulf coast near the Florida Panhandle in 2018.  On January 12th, the snowstorm was predicted weeks before there was an impacting and nearly 1 foot of snow on the south side of KC as we “knew” that the part of the pattern that produced a blizzard in the second LRC cycle would return in cycle 3 down to that specific date. And, now, we have been anticipating this set up for weeks to return around today.   This part of the pattern will cycle through two more times before summer settles in.  Wecan expect this part of the pattern to produce bigger set ups either in late March and/or in mid-May.

As the energy of this storm moves out into the plains, a band of winter precipitation is likely going to form later tonight into early Thursday morning as the Arctic blast moves in.  Accumulations of 1 to 2 inches will be possible, and this would include some sleet, and possibly some snow on top. Where will the band of precipitation line up? This is something we will be monitoring closely.

This first forecast says tomorrow, as it was what I showed last night. It is for today!3

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Will we be adding to the 17.3″ total early tomorrow?  It may be more sleet than snow.  Let’s see how this sets up tonight and I will be on 41 Action News at 4, 5, 6, 6:30 PM and 10 PM when we will begin seeing how this sets up.  The models are all over the place, and not just on this storm, but also on a few other storm systems showing up in the next two weeks.  The wild weather ride will continue.

Thanks for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Let us know if you have any questions by clicking on the blog at Weather2020.com.

Gary

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