A Winter Storm Approaches

Good morning bloggers,


A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued by the National Weather Service, and at 6:45 AM sleet and freezing rain showers rapidly formed:

Screen Shot 2019-02-05 at 6.39.37 AM

There is a huge temperature contrast that has formed again, and this will lead to a major winter storm forming.  Kansas City has dropped to 19 degrees this morning, and we have trapped in the colder air and it will likely stay below freezing into Wednesday morning.  A warmer surge may approach as this storm moves out into the plains tomorrow.  This next map is from when I was non last night at 10 PM:


Today into Wednesday will be quite interesting as the models range from completely dry to a small ice storm. The RGEM and European models have been the  most consistent and the wettest.  We may get anywhere from 0.05″ to 0.65″ of liquid, and this would translate to a light glazing to up to around 0.20″ of ice possible.  The higher amount would still be a rather small ice storm, and we need to pay close attention to it.  Here is a picture from Jeff Penner on the air this morning showing Wednesday mornings second disturbance:


The Major Winter Storm forms right near KC Wednesday night and Thursday. This is the storm I thought would become a major winter storm, and it is about to organize:


There is a main disturbance that will rip out into the plains early Thursday morning, and this is one that has my attention. If it is just a bit deeper and stronger a few hours earlier, then this band of snow that you can see below would be stronger and it could be a two hour snow storm Thursday morning. If it is just a bit weaker, faster, and farther north, then it will just be a cold blast with flurries Thursday morning.  The models have trended back to a bit stronger, so let’s see how this looks today.


There is another system that we are monitoring for Sunday into Monday. The European Model suddenly had 5 to 8 inches of snow over northern Missouri from that system, and the GFS model had snow developing Sunday in a warm advection zone. We will discuss this possibility soon. The bottom line is that we are in a more active week to ten days as I discussed a couple of weeks ago to arrive right now per the LRC.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect.  A few sleet or freezing rain showers likely with some freezing drizzle developing later today.  Temperatures in the 20s.
  • Tonight:  Sleet and freezing light rain or freezing drizzle is likely.  Some light icing may lead to slick and hazardous conditions.  Temperatures in the 20s.
  • Wednesday:  Another band of freezing light rain, freezing drizzle, and sleet is likely with temperatures rising into the lower or middle 30s. A few spots may rise above freezing.
  • Thursday:  Cloudy, windy, and turning colder. An Arctic Blast arrives with a chance of a two hour band of snow with a dusting to an inch possible. Temperatures dropping into the teens with wind chills below zero. Winds gusting to 45 mph.

Watch out for the slick spots that may develop. Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog and join in the conversation and have a great day.


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