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A Wild Next Few Days

Good morning,

What a pattern! We had the expected and forecasted “Snow Easter”.  6″ of snow up in northern Missouri fell on Easter Sunday.  Now, could it happen again later this week? There is a lot that needs to happen, but there is a trend in the direction of snow.  Let’s begin with this morning.

Today’s weather:  Another strong cold front is moving through.

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Temperatures are near 70 degrees over northeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas this morning. The low pressure area is centered just south of Kansas City at 7:20 AM.  This is a surface cyclone and it is tracking east along that warm front, the red line.  Cold air will blast back in once this moves through. There is a band of rain associated with this system, and snowflakes are not out of the question early this afternoon, but it will not be anything significant near KC. The heavier snow will be way up to the north.

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This next map above shows the forecast valid at 10 AM this morning, and the map below shows what happens with this system by tomorrow morning with most of Michigan in the snowstorm, while KC has near record lows.

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A look into the end of the week set up:  What is forecast to happen next will be interesting.

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The models have been showing some potential for snowfall, and significant amounts, near KC by Friday night. This chance is highly dependent on two main upper level features that I show above. There is really a ridge forming near the west coast. A wave sneaks through this ridge and heads out over the Rocky Mountains and into the plains states.  If this is any weaker, or the energy moving through the Great Lakes is any stronger, then the chance of snow will be less and be forced farther south. But, if there is a perfect combination, then it will be fascinating near KC by Friday.

Out ahead of this system will be a substantial warm up for one day on Thursday:

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We wil be monitoring this closely. The latest model trend overnight was in the snowier direction, but we need more consistency. There was that consistency developing by around three days before the “Snow Easter” we had on Sunday.  So, let’s see if a trend begins in the snowier direction, or the less snowy direction.

Have a great day! Go over to the Weather2020 blog and we can analyze the new data together and look to see if there is a trend in the snowy direction.  Here is the link to the Weather2020 blog where you can join in the conversation:  Weather2020 Blog The new data will be interesting to track today.

Gary

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