Quantcast

A Wild April: Severe Weather Outlook

Good morning bloggers,

As April approaches this weather pattern will continue, the same pattern from this past winter will be moving into severe weather season. We are predicting a rather active severe weather season and we will get to more specifics in three weeks when our spring weather special airs in mid-April. There will likely be a rather significant severe weather outbreak or two in the month of April. There will also be some cold surges blasting south from Canada as winter will take a while to completely fade from view and finally end for the season. The last third of April is likely to produce the worst of the severe weather and then May and early June also look fairly active.  There will be a few more freezes and likely some hard freezes, so don’t put the plants out yet!

The weather pattern continues to cycle according to the LRC, which is the centerpiece of a big atmospheric puzzle.  The LRC describes order to the chaos in the upper levels of the atmosphere, the river of air flowing above us within the troposphere.  Weather2020 has used this technology to accurately predict each winter storm that has affected the United States this winter weeks to months before they happened, and last years accurate prediction of a Tropical Storm to develop due south of the Florida Panhandle 8 months before there was even a cloud last Labor Day weekend, and Major Hurricane Harvey 55 days before that storm formed the year before.  70 years of research is coming to fruition and we have been sharing it with you here on the Action Weather Blog since 2002.  Again, the LRC is the centerpiece of this big puzzle. There are other influences.  The pattern continues to cycle regularly even with phase changes from El Niño, The Arctic Oscillation, and other influences. Let’s take a look how El Niño failed many weather forecasters this season that just use what the Climate Prediction Center showed in early November as the LRC was still setting up, and let’s compare it to the Weather2020 prediction of the broad pattern.

Screen Shot 2019-03-21 at 6.26.53 AM

Screen Shot 2019-03-21 at 6.27.40 AM

The above two screenshots were taken from the Climate Predicted lion Centers outlook issued in early November.  And, the bottom two maps are from the KSHB and Weather2020 predictions made a week or so later:

Screen Shot 2019-03-21 at 6.35.00 AM

Screen Shot 2019-03-21 at 6.40.39 AM

Precipitation and Temperatures Last 90 Days

Screen Shot 2019-03-21 at 6.25.07 AM

The above two maps shows the 90 day verifications of what happened form mid-December to mid-March.  For Kansas City, it appears Jeff Penner’s prediction of 27″ of snow (Jeff uses the LRC to make his winter predictions), and my prediction of 26″ for the season will be within 2 to 3 inches of the actual amount, unless more snow is added in April, which is still possible. Kansas City is sitting at around 29″ right now for the season.   These temperature and precipitation anomalies really line up with the LRC weighted predictions.  El Niño has been an increasingly strong influence on the pattern, and it still is just an influence on something much bigger going on.

It is officially becoming an El Niño in a few days:

El Nino Forming

There are other influences on the pattern.  The AO, when it goes negative, it is most likely related to colder outbreaks, and yet as you look below the index has been positive during half of this colder season. Again, these are just influences, quite obviously with this winters example.  The AO has been positive since around mid-February, and it never dipped below -3 this winter. The NAO, not posted here, was near neutral to positive the entire winter.

Screen Shot 2019-03-21 at 6.19.38 AM

A Look Into Opening Day Of Baseball Season

3

The El Niño influence has shown up quite strongly with the splitting of the jet stream which is happening again in the next week.  The northern stream in this years LRC set up in such a way that provided the conditions for the cold surges. And, another series of these surges is developing as April approaches, so again prepare for some more freezes and even a chance of more snow.

Opening Day Weather:

1

2

Baseball season begins next week, and there will be a big warm surge arriving around mid-next week.  The warmer air will surge in ahead of a storm system. This storm will be monitored closely for any rain and snow chances across the USA next week. We will get a bit more specific as next week approaches.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Join in the conversation at Weather2020.com.  Have a great day!  I am heading to Los Angeles today, going out to dinner tonight with my high school buddies, 40 year friendships, and then off to Palm Springs to visit some family and get away. I will be back next week, and I will still be keeping up with the blog.

Gary

Share and Enjoy:
  • Print
  • Digg
  • StumbleUpon
  • del.icio.us
  • Facebook
  • Yahoo! Buzz
  • Twitter
  • Google Bookmarks

Comments are closed.