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A Wet Seven Days Is In The Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

A friend sent me an email yesterday morning, or maybe it was a Facebook message as now a days the communication comes from all over the place.  A writer for the Kansas City Star wrote a story about our winter weather forecast we issued last fall and mentioned the LRC many times. Take a look:

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Here is the link to the article if it is hard to read here:  LRC Validation Article

The LRC is the centerpiece of the big atmospheric puzzle, the organization to the chaos.  El Niño just strengthened in the past week with the 3.4 region rising to 1.1°C above average over the tropical Pacific Ocean.  El Niño has been rather weak all season until now, with that current rise in temperatures.  We have now been sharing examples day after day that this pattern is cycling regularly according to the LRC, and this “same pattern” continues now.  El Niño is an influence, however, and likely one of the stronger ones. There are other influences too, and regardless of these influences, something bigger is going on that ties it all together, and this is what we have been sharing with you on this blog for nearly 20 years now (I believe it is around 17 years ago when we started this blog.  As Sherry Kuehl so articulately wrote in this posted article, the winter forecast has been spot on and almost perfect for KC.  We will grade the winter forecast in April when we finally have had our last snow. Yes, it is likely going to snow again in KC. It came close to snowing last night:

Screen Shot 2019-03-07 at 6.14.42 AM

This radar map shows the snow bending north and east of KC this morning. We finally missed a storm, or did we? We may get a little drizzle from this system tonight.

Today’s 6 PM Surface Forecast Map:

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The next wave of energy, in this seemingly relentless stormy pattern, is zipping out into the plains tonight.  As you can see above, there is a surface low forecast to be near TCC (Tucumcari, NM) at 6 PM this evening.  A warm front will be just south of KC and the little bit of snow will be located in a strip over Iowa and Illinois. Some light drizzle may develop later this afternoon near KC as this system weakens and zips by. It will then fall apart and get absorbed into a much larger storm heading our way this weekend. And, it will be followed up by another stronger storm early next week.

Rainfall forecast in the next seven days:

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Some areas may get an entire months worth of rain in these next seven days.  In KC, most of the models have around 2 to 3 inches of rain forecast by one week from today.  As we move into spring, we are much more concerned this year for flooding, than what we were predicting last year with the drought.  There will be no drought this spring, that is for certain.  And, we are predicting a few rather classic severe weather set ups in the next two months.  I have seen a few set ups that will bring some significant severe weather risks to traditional tornado alley.  For now, the cold weather is saving our area from having an early severe weather set up, and we will be monitoring each one of these storm systems closely.  Even Saturday, there is a good chance of a surge of 60 degree air to make it north into the KC metro area after a wave of rain and thunderstorms moves by and before a cold front sweeps in.  We will go in-depth into this set up on 41 Action News tonight.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Periods of clouds mixed with a little bit of sunshine.  High: 30s north to 40s south
  • Tonight: The wind shifting to the north with some drizzle possible this evening. It will likely be above freezing while the drizzle falls, and we need to pay close attention to the temperatures and any light precipitation that forms.
  • Friday: Mostly cloudy. High:  41°
  • Saturday:  A 100% chance for rain, and a few thunderstorms are possible.  The rain will likely end before noon with 1/4″ to 3/4″ of rain possible.  Temperatures will warm to near 55 or 60 degrees briefly around noon to 2 PM before the colder air moves back in.

Have a great day, and thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

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