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A Wet Pattern Develops Just As The New LRC Sets Up

Good morning bloggers,

Last night was likely the finale of the old 2018-2019 LRC, the pattern that brought Kansas City a whopping seven inches of snow all of last winter, the third winter in a row with less than ten inches of snow. There had never been three straight years with below 10 inches of snow.  Will the 2018-2019 winter season make it four in a row? It is too early to tell, to make that call, to make that prediction.  We don’t use our gut feeling, although that is still a factor.  We use real science based on a new technology, and according to the LRC we don’t know what that pattern is yet. We will know in a few weeks.  These other winter forecasts that have been coming out are literally based on flaws in technology or just gut feelings based on past patterns. That doesn’t work well, as every years pattern is unique.  So, my point is, we are finally saying goodbye to last years pattern, and beginning this weekend we will be in a new pattern, and I think we will all agree by the end of the weekend, that something very different has happened. I knew that this would be one of the easiest years to see how this happens right now, and it is doing it.  Take a look at this rainfall forecast below:

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The models have 3 to 6 inch rainfall predictions for a large area of Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa, Nebraska, and Missouri, and also way up north over North Dakota.

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On this second map above, something very different in the pattern begins happening.  These changes are being caused by a storm digging into the western United States. Some rain will begin forming in response to the massive change taking place in the overall pattern.  If you look closely, there is an inverted trough developing in the surface pattern over eastern Kansas this evening. And, by Saturday morning, an active rainfall producing pattern will be developing and in the colder air.  This likely means colder air will be trapped over Kansas and Missouri with downpours in a band extending from north Texas to southern Iowa:

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And, then by Sunday, below, an even larger area of rain will be developing, with snow forming over the ski areas of Colorado and Wyoming.

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Again, this is all happening in response to a functioning storm system dropping into the western United States in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  It is very exciting to share this new pattern with all of the weather enthusiasts. Remember, it isn’t one storm that makes the LRC. There is a five to ten week pattern that is just now evolving, developing. So, please be patient before any conclusions are made.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly cloudy with a chance of a few showers.  High:  59°
  • Tonight:  Rain likely.  Amounts will be under 1/2″.  Low:  55°
  • Friday:  Morning showers, and then southeast winds increasing with the rain shutting off for a few hours.  High:  60° north to 82° south.
  • Saturday:  A 100% chance of rain.  Most of the day has this chance, and yet there may still be a few hours where it doesn’t rain. Rainfall amounts of 1 – 3 inches possible. High:  58° (there will be a midnight high of 67°)
  • Sunday:  A 100% chance of rain with 1 – 2 inches possible.  High:  64°
  • Monday:  Mostly cloudy with a 70% chance of rain.  High:  77°

If this doesn’t “scream” that something new has just happened, then you likely haven’t been totally in tune with what we just experienced. I haven’t written a forecast like this in many years.  Have a great day everyone, and go to the Weather2020 blog to join in the great weather discussion.

Gary

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