A Weekend Storm System To Track

Good morning bloggers,

While the northeastern United States had yet another storm system to experience, Kansas City and surrounding areas continue to have frustration after frustration.  Well, this trend will likely continue for a while longer.  It has been a rather difficult ride for us weather enthusiasts that live near KC.  New York City had snow all day yesterday:  1.41″ liquid and 3.2″ of snow. Their snowfall total for the season is now at 27.0″.  And, yesterday, it never dropped below 33 degrees. It was above freezing all day and yet they had another storm system to remember.  Speaking of remembering, look at this forecast we made in front of our peers at the big AMS Conference:

Screen Shot 2018-03-05 at 11.50.50 PM

Not only did the storm return on President’s Day weekend, but they have now had three others that have been similar, and there will likely be one more before the spring versions of their storm systems return in the next LRC cycle.  Maybe, just maybe, next fall a pattern will set up to place Kansas City in a region that gets hit multiple times like this.  This  years pattern, according to our near peer reviewed Cycling Pattern Hypothesis, has not been kind to Kansas City, Wichita, Dodge City, Amarillo, and many other cities. Wichita, KS, right down I-35, is still sitting at 0.3″ of snow for the entire season.  This is an incredible stat, but even more impressive is Amarillo, TX who is not just sitting at zero snow for the season, but only 0.01″ since October 13th. An amazingly consistent pattern, which it should be, as the same pattern continues.

The potential weekend storm system


The models have widely varying solutions, and this storm is now just two days away. This fits this pattern as well. Around KC, it has been very difficult on the weather forecasters in trying to predict if just a tenth of an inch of rain, or melted down snow or ice may accumulate.  Predicting light precipitation events means that it could easily produce just a little less, and then almost nothing happens. Well, here we go again, look at that system over Nebraska, the circle, or upper low.


The GFS holds this system together as it spins past KC, leaving Amarillo, Wichita, and Dodge City in the dust once again, but KC? Well, KC is on the edge of having a rather interesting storm system:


By Sunday morning, as you can see in the blue shade, there is a band of snow moving into northern Missouri.  A strong surface cyclone is forecast to develop over the southern states, and there will be a severe weather risk:


Let’s see how the models trend today.  Have a great Thursday. I am traveling today, and will return on Friday.  The Kansas City Pet Telethon is Sunday on 38 the Spot from 6:30 to 9:30 PM. I am the host for the 18th time, then next week I am on vacation, Cancun. Has anyone ever been there? Any suggestions, or just relax. I am going to get away for a week.  But, today, I am in Raleigh/Durham North Carolina for a Weather2020 meeting.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.


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