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A Weak Cold Front and Changes Next Week

Good Monday morning bloggers,

The average low for today is 26° and we currently sit in the low to mid 60s, about 40 degrees above average!  Did you notice the damp to wet streets?  Well, it did not rain, it is condensation of the mositure in the air on the colder pavement.  It is just like taking a can of cold soda outside on a warm day and the can sweats.

We are going for a high of 70° and that would tie the record high set in 1956!

So, we have warmth and high humidity and a cold front will be moving through this afternoon.  Surely, it will rain, right?  Well, the answer is basically no.  There will be lots of clouds and a 10% chance for a brief rain shower.  There is no major storm system with the front, so no significant rain is expected.  We are in a drought and they are hard to break.  This weak front will move through and Tuesday will be sunny and pleasant with a high around 60°.  Considering it is December, this is a very weak front.  SEE MAPS #1 and #2.

MAP #1: NOON TODAY

MAP #2: NOON TUESDAY

We are in search of some changes and they are showing up for next week.  The weather pattern during the last week and continuing this week is one in which there are no big storm systems across the country, just a fast west to east flow with embedded weak systems.  There has been an anchor large storm in the eastern Pacific Ocean sending these pieces of weak energy our way.  It also holdS the Arctic air up in Canada.  SEE MAP #3.

MAP #3:  UPPER LEVEL FLOW TODAY @NOON.  NO BIG STORM SYSTEM, FAST WEST TO EAST FLOW

There are changes showing up in about 7 days as a storm system will likely drop into the Rockies then head east across the Plains.  This should bring our region some rain and perhaps snow.  There are still no signs of a cold outbreak.  We will be talking more about this the next several days.  SEE MAP #4.

MAP #4: 6 PM SUNDAY.  A STORM WILL LIKELY BE DROPPING INTO THE ROCKIES…CHANGES?

Have a great day and week ahead!

Jeff Penner

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27 comments to A Weak Cold Front and Changes Next Week

  • Good Blog Jeff. Good info, and to the point. Let’s hope that change comes! We need the moister. Feels weird watering my grass in Dec! lol How about a Christmas blizzard! Ok, maybe just a good Christmas Eve snow? :)

  • hobart

    I hope a big change happens, but it seems like there’s always a change being touted as somewhere out in the future, but it never really alters our extreme dry pattern. Maybe this time it’ll be different, but I doubt it.

  • Jerry

    “Good Blog Jeff. Good info, and to the point.” — agreed.

    I’m still peering around every corner trying to find a hint of winter.

  • trinlivco

    Jeff, Sure hope the (BIG CHANGE) does happen. I know this drought makes your weather forcast very hard. God knows we need something to happen to our weather. This dry weather is a killer, while the mild temps may seem nice now if we dont get some rain or snow in the coming months we will all suffer the effects this coming spring and summer. Pray for rain!! TR

  • frigate

    Yes, it is getting old hearing about a ‘change’ coming…as even this week’s temp predicitions from last week have been moderated, as I remember there were some 30′s forcast for highs for later this week. Personally, I like these warm temps…but also I’m getting spoiled, so when the cold temps do come, it will be harder to take. Also…we need moisture badly…while the poor folks on the west and east coasts are getting too much!!!

  • A interesting tidbit from yesterday afternoon forecast discussion/EAX…”This is the year that there was no southwest low…A low that developed in the SW CONUS that had both, rich moisture from the Pacific,and the Gulf of Mexico”… Have a good 1. :)

  • R-Dub

    Well, it may not be a BIG CHANGE but there is a nice fantasy storm on the GFS around Dec 11. Generous precip amounts mostly in the form of snow. But the pattern doesn’t really change as it goes back to warm and zonal right after that.

    • mowermike

      R-dub…

      True, but if we can get that storm to really happen, maybe it is a pattern changer. It has happened before!!

      Time to buckle pattern

  • mowermike

    100% chance of a white X-mas and snow on the ground by the 17th of the month…the cold is coming soon folks, get the shovels ready. Snow is likely in 8 days.

    Tush,

    I said the Chiefs would win by 6 on Sunday last Wed. Lucky Guess or Talent?

  • R-Dub

    Get your shovels ready, maybe you can shovel some snow before it melts off.

  • f00dl3

    R-Dub is probably right – even if we do get snow – we’d have to get 3 feet of snow to be sure it won’t melt off – especially with this zonal flow bringing us right back up into the 50s/60s for highs.

  • Kole Christian

    Snow showing up, not much though.
    “http://wxmaps.org/pix/mcigfs.png”

  • R-Dub

    From today’s NWS discussion : “Model solutions vary widely through the rest of the forecast period in regards to the evolution of a deepening trough…with the GFS and GFS ensemble offering slower solutions with a trough digging into the 4 corners region…while the European model (ecmwf) offers a more progressive solution with a trough swinging through the northern and Central Plains.”

    Unfortunately for us, hasn’t the ECMWF typically been right lately and the GFS wrong? Sure seems like we’ve seen a lot more of fast-moving things swinging through the northern plains lately, compared to deep troughs in the 4 corners.

  • f00dl3

    What are ground temperatures going to be by Sunday? 40 to 50 degrees? Hard to get snow to stick when the average dirunal range for 2 weeks prior to a said storm has been above freezing even at the diurnal minimum.

    I don’t think we will get an inch of snow until Jan, if we are lucky to have enough moisture for an inch of snow. With temperatures where they have been, to get 1 inch of snow we will need a storm system with at least a half inch of moisture, as it will likely be a slushy inch, and ground temperatures will have to be overcame.

  • Weatherman Kumke

    “http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=177792″

    Hype this map. Ready go.

  • I,m not impressed w/the trough that is forecasted later this week…Lack of talent(moisture)… Just like you Miky :)

  • Emaw

    Two weeks ago it was going to snow last week. Last week it was going to snow this week. This week it’s going to snow next week. Yes I definetly see a pattern here, hilarious!

  • kellyinkc

    heres some more fun.
    “http://snowday1.wordpress.com/category/long-range-forecasts/”
    We need moisture of some sort soon!

  • Kole Christian

    OH MY GOD SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Kole Christian

    But seriously, I do hope it snows, otherwise it better stay 70. I am ready for baseball season to get started. I heard R.A. Dickey and the Royals being put together in the same sentence.

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=64121 Wunderground is showing snow Dec the 10th. Could be the end to the snowflake contest!

  • Skylar

    I think Dux says it pretty well:

    A VERY low confidence forecast heading into next week, with
    significant anomalies in GFS/ECMWF ensemble data developing. Snow
    lovers will undoubtedly become excited with the latest trends of the
    00Z ECMWF towards the GFS with a deep southwest low tracking
    northeast through the Southern Plains. However, the reality is these
    solutions will change significantly through the remainder of the
    week given the poor sampling of the shortwave initially responsible
    for the development of this low, and the strong Pacific jet that is
    yet to develop. Still, given the substantially increased
    baroclinicity in the region, this is a system that we will have to
    monitor closely.

    Dux