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A Warm Up Will Eventually Lead Into Increased Severe Weather Risks

Good morning bloggers,

KCI Airport has now had 3.59″ of rain this month, and we are just getting to the part of the pattern that is more likely to produce the potential severe weather set-ups across traditional tornado alley.  The first strong set up for severe weather will most likely happen around Saturday.  We will go in-depth as it gets a bit closer.

Finally, a big warm-up:

namconus_T2m_us_40

It has been a cool first half of May, and this is about to change, and big time.  The map above shows a prediction of temperatures at 4 PM central time Tuesday.  The 80s will be surging north all the way to the Nebraska/South Dakota border.  The humidity will be on the rise too, and then we will be setting the stage for some thunderstorms.

fv3p_z500_vort_us_11

As you cans see above, a rather big ridge is forming and moving out over the Rocky Mountains and out over the plains states this week. The models have been making horrible errors in showing some of these ridges growing and stopping the flow, or blocking the flow and it was causing panic in some storm chasers a few days ago. There is little chance of what they call “the ridge of death” as it causes severe weather season to go dormant. Well, in this year’s LRC, we know better, and…….

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Mostly sunny with a high near67°.  Expect light winds and just a bit cool this afternoon.
  • Tonight: There will be a light southeast breeze at around 5 mph. Low:  55°
  • Tuesday: Mostly sunny with light winds.  It will be nearly perfect outside and comfortable with a high of 77°  There is a 30% chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
  • Wednesday:  After a possible early morning thunderstorm, expect mostly sunny and breezy conditions to develop.  It will be warmer with south winds 10-20 mph.  High:  83°
  • Thursday: Mostly sunny and warmer.  South to southwest winds 10-25 mph.  High:  86°

The storm to watch this week:

This is one of many solutions valid at 7 PM Saturday evening.  The FV3-GFS is modeling a very strong surface cyclone over Kansas by Saturday evening:

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23

If this is at all correct, and it fits the LRC better than the operational GFS model, then we will have the potential for significant severe weather over tornado alley by Friday or Saturday.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring the LRC which describes the Order In Chaos, published in Meteorological Technology International Magazine.  If you have any questions, or would like to join the conversation, go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the discussion.  We will be moderating the blog to make sure it is an enjoyable experience for everyone reading!

Have a great start to the week!

Gary

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