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A Warm Start To The Week

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: A few morning clouds, then sunny and warm. High:  85°
  • Tonight:  Clear and dry. Low:  62°
  • Tuesday:  Mostly sunny with increasing afternoon clouds. High:  84°
  • Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms, most likely Wednesday night.  High:  80°

Let’s begin today with a little discussion of the cycling weather pattern as described by the LRC. We have been discussing how the storm this week is directly related to the part of the pattern that produced the “non ice” ice storm in mid-January. This part of the pattern is due in this week and it is right on the LRC calendar. Not only is that part of the pattern cycling back through this week, but the comparison to January, as of this morning, is incredibly similar on the storm system coming into California. Take a look at the storm this morning and compare it to the storm that produced the ice storm four months ago:

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A strong and functional storm across Southern California is not unheard of, but yesterdays nearly 1 foot snowstorm over the mountainous areas of Southern California is a bit rare with snow levels all the way down to 4,000 feet. If you look at these two maps above you may not even know if it is January or if it is May as the strength, position, and structure are almost identical. You can’t make this up. That is a 552 dm circle on both maps!

Tracking This Storm:

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The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed a slight risk of severe weather area over eastern Colorado south into northeastern New Mexico. This is in response to the energy coming in from that southwestern upper level low.

As this storm moves out into the plains a slow moving cold front will interact with a nice moisture supply from the Gulf of Mexico to create a set up for heavy rain and thunderstorms, and perhaps a weak severe weather risk. The storm approaching will go through a transition as it moves into Kansas and then turns back to the southeast. Something very similar happened in January when this part of the pattern produced a similar storm that made it into Kansas and then it split into pieces with part of it dropping southwest and part of it ejecting northeast. Just like in trying to predict the ice storm we are presented with a forecast challenge for amounts of rain in this May version.

Screen Shot 2017-05-08 at 8.39.42 AM

On this GFS forecast rainfall output ending Thursday night, you can see that Kansas City is in the purple colors which is around 2.25 to 2.50 inches of rain. We should be able to narrow down this potential and get a bit more specific by tonight or tomorrow.  In the mean time, it will be a very warm and dry day on this eighth of May. KCI Airport is only at 0.14″ so far in the first week of the month. Northwest Missouri could really use a good drink of water. Southern and eastern Missouri could use a bit more of a break.

Have a great start to the week and thank you for participating in this weather experience.

Gary

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