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A warm November pattern!

Watch 41 Action News at 6 PM Monday Night For Our Winter Forecast!

Good morning bloggers,

We are just four days away from our winter forecast and it is going to be anything but wintery during the next week. There is a decent chance of Kansas City having it’s warmest Thanksgiving Day ever recorded.  Last year it was 67° for an official high at KCI Airport on Thanksgiving, and last night we made our first forecast for that day with a high of 68°.  Let’s look at the reasons why we are forecasting such a warm stretch of days ahead of us.

This first map shows the 500 mb flow valid tonight. This is the flow around 18,000 feet above us. The main jet stream is flowing from west to east across Canada with weaker flow across the United States.  With most of the energy flowing across Canada there is not a storm in sight for us right now which will help provide us with some nice weather going into the big holiday week.

This next map shows the 500 mb forecast valid at 6 PM next Tuesday evening.The heights across the United States are rising. The line drawn in blue on these maps is the 570 dm height line.  This means that the pressure along this line is 500 mb 5,700 meters above the surface. The wind flows parallel to these lines.  A ridge aloft is right over the central and southern plains next week and this will help provide the conditions favorable for some near to record breaking highs.  A huge storm is forming off the west coast early next week, and this just about insures that we will have a mostly dry (there may be a few showers) and mild week with the near to record breaking highs. The flow aloft is forecast on this map to be from the southwest extending from Northern California all the way to north of the Great Lakes.  This will likely result in southerly Gulf of Mexico flow and the warmer forecast temperatures for morning lows and afternoon highs.

There is no clear indication of any big change.  We will be looking for one as the new data rolls in.  We continue to work on our winter forecast and we will open the discussion Monday evening.

+Have a great day. Remember, Friday night is the deadline to enter the snowflake contest.  Is the first inch going to come after the first of the new year again?  Thanks for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog!

Gary

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13 comments to A warm November pattern!

  • hobart

    I honestly don’t look forward to a 70 degree, toasty dry Thanksgiving. Our weather is really screwed up.

  • Emaw

    If we could just get a soaker like last Sunday about every 7-10 days we’d be in business. 50′s and 60′s in November is awesome baby! My pick for the first 1″ of snow this winter is NEVER, total snowfall this winter will be 3.4″, no one event will produce 1″ or more. EMAW!

  • Emaw

    Gary, I forgot to ask, if we don’t get 1″ out of 1 event, will you use the date that pushes our total up to an inch for the season?

  • When should the cycle end and start repeating? Because if this is the first cycle, this is dry and sad.

    Question did the Iceland volcano cause us to have a colder snowy 2010-2011 because off the ash plume being recirculated and dropping the average temps a few degrees?

    • dogsinkc

      I’ve been thinking about this lately, too.
      I think that was DEFINITELY a factor.

      • Fred Souder

        There is a lot of dispute about this. According to the climate scientists at NOAA and WEATHERBELL, a high latitude volcano like the one in iceland will cause a minor depression in global temps for about 10 years, while a low latitude volcano like Pinatabo will cause a big change in temps for 1 or two years. What is interesting to me is how the historical temperature record rarely denotes eruptions. Even huge eruptions often have no noticeable impact on global temperature when taken as an average. However, there is a lot of anecdotal evidence that volcanic eruptions can subtly change the longwave patterns and cause more extremes.
        For instance, the “Year Without a Summer” when there were frosts and snow in New England in June- had average global temperatures that were normal. Everyone seems to agree that it was a result of the Tambora eruption, but no one seems to mention that global average temperatures were barely effected by it. Instead, there were major temperature swing in the mid latitudes.
        There is a very good essay by Willis Essenbach who plots global temperature records and superimposes eruptions on this record to see if there is a correlation.
        Also, the Iceland eruption did not eject much SO2 and ash into the atmosphere compared to some of the huge eruptions that are thought to have caused major weather impacts, like Pinatabo, Tambora, Krakatoa, Laki, etc.

  • lsx347

    i’m not complaining one bit about this weather…although I do hope we get a big snow atleast once this year. I miss it. I want to go play in my diesel

  • dogsinkc

    I don’t understand why temperatures are becoming so warm again? Isn’t there more snowfall in the U.S and around the world than there was last year? Shouldn’t that be influencing the temps more?

  • hobart

    Sorry, I’ve given up belief in fixed weather patterns. If there were definite weather patterns, we’d get accurate forecasts. We don’t get them. It’s anyones guess what the weather will be three months out, six months out, or a year out. Meteorologists are just kidding themselves. Look at how bad last Winter’s predictions were. And what happened to the wet May we were going to have last Spring. Nope, weather predictions are just a crap shoot.

    • Fred Souder

      I agree, to an extent. It is still nigh impossible to predict weather for a specific location more than a few days ahead. However, any fluid medium (the air) should have periodic oscillations, or cycles within cycles. It would go against basic physics for this not to be true. However, there are so many cycles and patterns that influence each other it is quite challenging to tease out how they will look after a few days time. Look not to the LRC to afford a reliable long range outlook for a point location. Maybe with enough data, the LRC will have enough skill to predict wave patters relative to each other (but not to a fixed point). I don’t think it has evolved to this point, yet, but it is getting closer.

  • dogsinkc

    I don’t understand why temperatures are becoming so warm again? Isn’t there more snowfall in the U.S and around the world than there was last year? Shouldn’t that be influencing the temps more?

  • cornstalk

    We haven’t heard much about the LRC and the new pattern lately. Could that be because there isn’t one?