Watch 41 Action News at 6 PM Monday Night For Our Winter Forecast!
Good morning bloggers,
We are just four days away from our winter forecast and it is going to be anything but wintery during the next week. There is a decent chance of Kansas City having it’s warmest Thanksgiving Day ever recorded. Last year it was 67° for an official high at KCI Airport on Thanksgiving, and last night we made our first forecast for that day with a high of 68°. Let’s look at the reasons why we are forecasting such a warm stretch of days ahead of us.
This first map shows the 500 mb flow valid tonight. This is the flow around 18,000 feet above us. The main jet stream is flowing from west to east across Canada with weaker flow across the United States. With most of the energy flowing across Canada there is not a storm in sight for us right now which will help provide us with some nice weather going into the big holiday week.
This next map shows the 500 mb forecast valid at 6 PM next Tuesday evening.The heights across the United States are rising. The line drawn in blue on these maps is the 570 dm height line. This means that the pressure along this line is 500 mb 5,700 meters above the surface. The wind flows parallel to these lines. A ridge aloft is right over the central and southern plains next week and this will help provide the conditions favorable for some near to record breaking highs. A huge storm is forming off the west coast early next week, and this just about insures that we will have a mostly dry (there may be a few showers) and mild week with the near to record breaking highs. The flow aloft is forecast on this map to be from the southwest extending from Northern California all the way to north of the Great Lakes. This will likely result in southerly Gulf of Mexico flow and the warmer forecast temperatures for morning lows and afternoon highs.
There is no clear indication of any big change. We will be looking for one as the new data rolls in. We continue to work on our winter forecast and we will open the discussion Monday evening.
+Have a great day. Remember, Friday night is the deadline to enter the snowflake contest. Is the first inch going to come after the first of the new year again? Thanks for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog!