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A Very Rare May Winter Storm

Good morning Kansas City,

We are likely about to experience a once in a lifetime May snowstorm.  Parts of the KC viewing area will likely have accumulations of snow as a storm intensifies and moves our way.  Last night, on 41 Action News, I showed a special weather graphic that began with this first page, below, and I then showed all of the potential scenarios ranging from just wet with rain and a few snowflakes, to a more likely 2″ to 6″ snow range in a small band that may very well end up near Kansas City:

Blog1

Let’s discuss the weather below, but I will begin with one of the questions:  How low will the temperatures get tonight.  If it doesn’t drop below 35° most of the snow would likely melt and not accumulate. We are forecasting a low of 32° or 33° tonight:

Blog2

Weather Discussion:

A strong cold front came through Wednesday evening and we are currently having another, and hopefully last cold blast of the season.  So, we have the cold air, and we also now have a developing storm system aloft that is just now beginning to form.

  • How strong will this storm become, and where will it track?
  • How low will the surface temperatures reach overnight?

Let’s take a look at this developing storm and answer these questions, beginning with the 7 AM surface map:

1

It is currently snowing in the Texas Panhandle where it was 97° on Tuesday. NINETYSEVEN DEGREES Tuesday and it is now snowing and accumulating. Wow!  Our temperatures are dropping, but again how low will they get overnight when our best chance of snow arrives?

2The storm system that is going to create the conditions favorable for snow is just now deepening, strengthening, and digging into Kansas. This storm, as you can see on the left (click on the map for a larger view) is just sagging south today as the energy bumps into a strong blocking pattern over the eastern part of North America. You can see the block over the east. Just east of the block is an upper low off the New England coast that is also just stuck there with no where to go.  As this energy gets blocked we have this unique set up that will likely not happen again in our lifetime.

3By Friday morning the upper low is forecast to completely close off and something quite fascinating begins happening that will likely impact our potential snowfall accumulation.  Kansas City may very well go into southeast flow aloft as you can see to the right.  What does this mean and how would this impact us?

The bands of rain and snow that will be seemingly moving off to the east later tonight may very well stop and begin moving back to the west. There will be a pivot point where the band of snow/rain just stops and then just sits there for a while and this location will likely end up with the most snowfall.

As this storm system closes off it will begin pulling warmer air around the system.  Take a look at the 850 mb level, around 5,000 feet up in the atmosphere:

4

 

The solid purple line is the 0° isotherm. Isotherm means a line of constant temperature, so it is 32°F all along that line.  Notice how the warmer air over eastern Missouri (the 3°C and 6°C lines) is being pulled west towards Kansas City. Eventually this warmer air will wrap around the entire system. How long will it stay cold enough to snow before it changes to back to rain? There will likely be a shrinking area of snow with a change back to rain as we move through Friday.

We will be under the influence of this storm through Saturday and then hopefully this storm will exit the area Sunday as the blocking pattern breaks down.

New data:

The latest NAM model forecasts a temperature drop to 32 or 33 this evening with heavy snow.  We will monitor these developments closely. What do you think bloggers?  Can you believe this?

Have a great morning. We will update the blog later this afternoon.

Gary

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232 comments to A Very Rare May Winter Storm

  • mattmaisch

    Hard as it is to believe, it certainly looks to be on track. Overnight data does nothing to diminish confidence. Won’t be around long, but it sure looks like it’s coming at this point.

  • yewtrees

    NWS: Current thinking is that once the sun rises, what little bit of
    solar radiation makes it through the thick cloud deck should tip the
    scales against accumulating snow over northwest MO and northeast KS
    through the afternoon. Could still see occasional light snow or sleet across these areas which could briefly accumulate on grassy surfaces where it falls the heaviest.

  • frigate

    I’m sure all the cold and snow lovers must be in heaven today. This will go down as the year without a spring for sure! I checked the NWS forecast for Fairbanks, Alaska today, Thursday: Snow likely. Less than 1 inch snow accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. North winds to 10 mph. Hmmm…looks very similiar to good ole KC.

  • mowermike

    Let’s just hope if it snows it is on the lower end of the potential. Like many have mentioned on here, snow at night and 33 or so degrees will stick to the young leafs of all the vegetation. This could be very destructive if the higher end snowfall happens.

    Great come from behind win last night Royals, now, it looks like they may not play for 2 days or so.

    • nofluer

      Actually, if the temp drops below freezing, the snow could help the plants as it would insulate them.

    • Rock Hardon

      Mike,

      I thought you left

      mowermike
      April 28, 2013 at 10:28 AM
      Theo,

      Nope, not threatening anyone, just making a factual comment that you and the other few that talk loud would never say the same in person. That’s my point….nothing further. I offered several times to meet up and settle. Not one response. I’m not saying it’s going to be a fight, I don’t like fighting, never have never will, just saying what is said on here would never be said in person. Everything I say I have no problem proving. Will do any day. I have serious doubts that you would show and say the same things you do on here…. Bottom line Theo, you know it too. It’s not normal to talk to strangers the way you do on here.

      Other than you and a few others that are really just one guy(multiple screen names)I’m sure the rest of the bloggers know that I’m not the instigator.

      Have your fun, until this mess cleans up on here, I’m not interested in posting anymore. I don’t like yacking back in forth to people that wouldn’t do it face to face. That’s a fact for ya. It’s plain silly.

      The blog cleaned up for a while, but it’s a mess again. Have fun talking loud, we both know this blog is as far as the loud talk will go.

      I asked for peace a few days ago, I just want to talk weather

  • tushchaser1

    oh the humanity. I must go to the store to get bread and milk. Snow is in the forecast. Sure do wish I could play golf, oh wait, it is still winter.

    How’s that cycle treating you? Go snow go!

  • R-Dub

    Temps this morning running several degrees above what was forecast. 41 at my house, 43 downtown, 40 KCI. I still think the snow is going to have a real hard time accumulating in metro KC.

    • R-Dub,

      The temperatures are about where we thought they would be at this hour. But, this is certainly one of the factors, if not the most important one. It will have to drop below 34° or so to be able to get the accumulations that I am talking about. How low will it go? One to three degrees is huge.

      • R-Dub

        Gary, that’s not what your forecast graphics say. You (and other outlets) said we would be in the 30s by now.

        • HeatMiser

          It’s 38 in Lawrence. TWC is saying 4-6 inches for KC.

          • It is possible. We went 2 to 6 inches in a small band, and somewhere near KC. The biggest question will continue to be the temperatures. Right now 39 is too warm.

            Gary

        • R-Dub,

          It was 39 at 8 AM at KCI. We thought 39 at 7, 37 at noon, and 35 at the end of the day. Let’s see where it goes. Even though it’s cloudy, the sun angle is higher.

          • nofluer

            At 7 AM it was 29 F in N Holt county (NW MO) with light snow. There is about a half inch on the ground over slush. At 08:40 the temp is 30 F with some VERY light snow falling.

  • frigate

    I would think, IF, we get more than 3 inches of snow, there will be some major tree and vegetation damage, along with major power outages, that would really be tragic.

    • Jeff,

      Yes, we have been thinking about this potential problem. Let’s see if the temperatures get cold enough, and if the storm forms as expected.

      • nofluer

        Our cherry tree was/is in full bloom… :-( Have to wait and see how that turns out… I was going to transplant some strawberries last week, but wasn’t confident enough that the temp would stay above the frost potential, so didn’t. (Yeaaaay me!!!) :-) So The Farm is on hold for the rest of this system – then we’ll see.

        Keep in mind that in 1816 we had the year without a summer. It’s doubtful that we’ll get that bad this year as there have been no major volcanic blasts and the Sun is closer to Solar Max (double peak?) than to Solar minimum. (Look up/google “The Year Without A Summer” – fascinating stuff!!!)

        Sooo…. can we bury the whole “Global Warming” BS now? I’d really love to have Al Gore here so I could smack him with a snowball… ;-D And speaking of Al… would someone please tell him to stop messing with the world’s thermostat? He’s really starting to cause problems… may be we need an old-school teacher with a ruler in her hand???

  • powerlineman

    Gary, do you see power outages being a possible issue?

    • If it snows hard enough and temperatures get close to freezing it could become a big problem. We just have to watch that temperature and radar.

  • PILOT MISER

    Got to 36 last night in Platte City and sitting there right now.

    Temps are THE factor.

  • Henley

    I really thought we were done with this and the snow lovers crawled back into their holes but nooooo, most likely they will be out in force later today clogging up the server.

    • rred95

      yep this is so common, potential snow in may , nothing to discuss or talk about today. Guess we should crawl back into our “holes” and pretend this amazing event isnt happening.

    • tushchaser1

      Today will definitely be a tough day on the blog for those of us who like snow, but dislike snow in May. The “we want snow because this a historic event” and the “we want snow because we love snow and snow makes us happy” crowd will be sure to shoot down any posts that are contrary to their desires.

      Sure do love this weather pattern…

  • f00dl3

    It’s not global warming, it’s snowbal warming.

    Seriously though – seriously? Elevated surfaces won’t take as long to get snow to pile up as the grass, and the roads should be mostly fine. If the NAM and 6z NAM has it, KC metro could easiy see 7″ on elevated surafaces, 4″ on grass, and a trace on roads when it’s at it’s heaviest. This is historically incredible what may happen tonight!

    Got my 12.6 mile run in already and got about 33% of it in dry – but still was raw and rainy. Started at 4:30 AM finished at 6:40 AM. Snow is easier to run in than rain because rain gets even water resistant layers all soaked, body heat is trapped inside so it’s still warm, but gloves are useless.

    • I need to get my workout in. That had to be a cold May run.

      Gary

    • tushchaser1

      Looks like my workout will be spent running on the treadmill, which has been the story of my life over the past few months. With this “weather pattern/cycle” the weather really hasn’t been conducive to running outside, in my opinion. Again, running on the treadmill and not in 30 degree weather is my personal preference.

  • MikeL

    In SW Topeka, sleet is mixing in with the rain now. 36.1 degrees.

  • mowermike

    The LRC from months ago predicted a slow moving storm this week. WOW!! It’s right there on the LRC weather site.

    • tushchaser1

      Great. How about the LRC predict a return of the weather pattern we experienced in October and November, albeit with a bit more rain?

    • mukustink

      WOW. Amazing. Did it mention snow and cold?

    • Rock Hardon

      Mike,

      I thought you were leaving

      mowermike
      April 28, 2013 at 10:28 AM
      Theo,

      Nope, not threatening anyone, just making a factual comment that you and the other few that talk loud would never say the same in person. That’s my point….nothing further. I offered several times to meet up and settle. Not one response. I’m not saying it’s going to be a fight, I don’t like fighting, never have never will, just saying what is said on here would never be said in person. Everything I say I have no problem proving. Will do any day. I have serious doubts that you would show and say the same things you do on here…. Bottom line Theo, you know it too. It’s not normal to talk to strangers the way you do on here.

      Other than you and a few others that are really just one guy(multiple screen names)I’m sure the rest of the bloggers know that I’m not the instigator.

      Have your fun, until this mess cleans up on here, I’m not interested in posting anymore. I don’t like yacking back in forth to people that wouldn’t do it face to face. That’s a fact for ya. It’s plain silly.

      The blog cleaned up for a while, but it’s a mess again. Have fun talking loud, we both know this blog is as far as the loud talk will go.

      I asked for peace a few days ago, I just want to talk weather

  • LES1787

    Gary, how will this impact the morning commute on Friday? I know the temperature is highly significant in answering this – but for purposes of this question, let’s assume the worst. I am set to travel to mid MO in the morning and am wondering if I need to get there tonight for safety reasons. Thank you!

    • It would really have to snow hard to accumulate on the roads at temperatures above 32°. With our forecast low of 33 we are expecting mostly wet roads, but I could see a scenario where many secondary roads get snow covered.

  • Drought Miser

    Tomorrow morning we will all know the snow totals… lets hope for less then 2″ cause 6″ would bring some branches down!!

  • i’m surprised the NWS hasn’t issued a winter weather advisory yet for our area, especially given the fact both the NAM and GFS still have us in a 6 inch MINIMUM amount of snwofall and the weather channel has us in 4-6 inch swath.I do realize NWS is still very conservative in their snowfall predictions. Maybe they are still embarassed about that 12 hour tornado watch ‘fluke’ they issued so prematurely a couple of weeks ago.

    • Skylar

      They said in their AFD confidence wasn’t high enough yet, probably because this event is so rare.

  • Cacti51

    latest NAM (12Z) has 6-7″ for the metro….http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013050212&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=030

    This is crazy! But happy to be a part of this historic weather!

  • shawneechiefsfan

    Nobeachhere,

    What say you now about this weather? Sorry to put you on the spot but cannot imagine you meant THIS about the jet stream “buckling a bit” this week.

    Gary et al,

    What are the teleconnections, especially AO and NAO, indicating now? Are they positive like last week or diving deep negative yet again?

  • Skylar

    New NAM has 6-7″ on this map, but the last 1-2″ falls during the day so probably 3-6″ as the total for this run.

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013050212&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=036″

  • Theo

    stl78: Did you see Rice Lake, WI got 14″ overnight? Wow! Looks like you will have an interesting day. Storm shifted about 40-50 miles East. Winona should get over 6″ now.

  • MikeL

    In SW Topeka, the rain/sleet mix has turned mostly to snow now. Temp 33.6 at my house. It is accumulating on roofs and on the grass in a few places. Very interesting May 2!

  • yewtrees

    Where is Al Gore so we can kick him in the nuts…..

    It is a Global Cooling!!!

  • laurent227

    Hi, Gary! Thank you for keeping us updated! Can you tell me what Friday evening looks like for the ballame? Is it going to rain/snow all evening tomorrow?

    • mukustink

      Hopefully they will get all the snow plowed off the field so they can play. LOL

    • A dry slot is shooting our way tomorrow evening, but will the precipitation shut off? Not sure yet. There is a chance, but it will be cold.

      • laurent227

        I’m supposed to be taking my elementary choir to sing at the 7th inning stretch tomorrow. I thought May 3 was a safe date to pick! Who knew we’d be contemplating snow and cold?! Thanks, Gary!

  • mukustink

    Oh the drama.

  • stl78

    Theo. I’m in stockholm now. At least 8 and still snowin. Trees n powerlines r down. We r busy to say the least!

  • frigate

    Seriously, there is nothing to stop this pattern from repeating itself towards the end of next week. We have yet had more then 3 or 4 nice days in a roll. This same thing has been happening almost every week, with a 2 or 3 nice days and then back to winter, and each time Gary and Jeff have said “This will be the last time we talk about snow and freezes”…yet here we are talking about it again. I have no faith that this will ever stop…as obviosuly being in May, more sunlight, closer to the summer solistice and with all the hype about the sun’s angle etc…has not prevented this from happening. With all kinds of kinds of records being broken, the pattern should continue until the next LRC sets up in October.

    • StormyWX

      It may not have prevented it from happening, but it’s certainly no where near as strong as it would’ve been earlier on this year/late last year.

      Eventually, of course though, spring and summer WILL prevail, it’s just that Old Man Winter seems to be making up for his no-show appearance last winter.

      But this is history in the making! We may very easily never see this again in our lives and I plan to enjoy it to the fullest. It’ll make for a great story later on in life, many years down the road.

      However I do wonder if we’ll see very much of a severe weather season this year…

      • shawneechiefsfan

        According to weather records the snowstorm that caused KC’s 1.8 inches, the record until probably this overnight, returned in mid-May just a bit farther north producing more record amounts in Iowa and Minnesota.

        I bet we, hard as it is to believe, haven’t seen our last snowflake even after this freak event…………and don’t count severe weather season out! IF this pattern continues into late spring and summer with cold cores like this a MAJOR outbreak is likely later this month into early June.

        The big event I am actually almost expecting now is another mega-flood like 1993 this July. The only thing that may depress that a bit is we were so dry last year, more so than 1992 was.

  • stjoeattorney

    10:10 am 35.3 big fat flakes falling

    WOW NOW HEAVY SNOW.

  • my daughter who lives near Lake Perry Kansas just texted me said it was snowing there

  • hushpook

    The temperatures really are the story. I think I saw this right…in recorded history for our town, we have never had a high temperature in May under 45. We are looking at back to back days with highs under 45. In fact, we’ve had just 5 days with highs between 45-48. The forecast high Saturday is 48.

    And just how different is the weather versus 2012? Our last day in 2012 with a high under 45 was Feb 13th. Last May, we had 1″ of precipitation the entire month. We could well have that much this May before May 3rd.

    This is once in a lifetime weather, to be sure.

  • Casebier

    34.9 east of McLouth..occasional sleet pellet is mixing in with the rainfall. I am enjoying this wild weather ride!

  • Kole Christian

    Two inches on grass would be nice. 6 inches would make the roads slushy at least, especially if we get down to freezing. Snow will be hard on trees but if it gets below freezing the snow will protect some sensitive crops and plants.

  • tushchaser1

    At what point will the newscasters be forced outside to report from the salt domes, overpasses, and highway conditions? The possible 1-3 inch snow fall, which is highly dependent on the temperature falling to a certain point, is epic!!! Oh, and the fact it is occurring in May will definitely be given a headline and will definitely kick off the news at 4:00, 5:00, 6:00 and 10:00.

    Have they started break ins during regularly scheduled programming? How about posting the weather map in the corner, showing rain?

    I can’t wait for this to repeat in June, during summer, everyone needs a dose of 35 degree weather with snow during summer.

  • someweatherdude

    The precipitation shield is making absolutely no esastward progress in the KC area. It’s as thought it’s stuck at I-35.

  • Skylar

    GFS has 4-8″, highest just southeast of the city. For most areas 3-5″ seems reasonable based on the “on” runs.

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013050212&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=042

  • McCabe58

    I knew someone would beat the old dead horse with the “Have they started break ins during regularly scheduled programming? How about posting the weather map in the corner, showing rain?” crap. So overused. You aren’t the first person to say that lol.. ANYWAYS, still thinking we’ll be lucky to see a slushy inch out of this.

    • tushchaser1

      McCabe–

      Often times, an old joke is a good joke. You know that the reaction of our news media here in KC is hilarious and even more hilarious during times of weather.

      ANYWAYS, what will happen to the people who post the snowfall maps and it doesn’t snow (due to the temperatures being too warm?) Heads may explode.

      I can see the headline now: “Heads explode all over Kansas City after snow doesn’t fall.”

    • nofluer

      Eh. Who watches KSHB when Gary and crew aren’t on during the news? Nuthin’ to see there…

    • snowplowman

      Speaking of dead horse beating……….”POOF”……

      I can’t believe I said that……please shoot me….

      Serenity now…..serenity now…….That’s better.

  • douglas6280

    I know it does not fit the criteria of a named winter storm, but hey, a once in a lifetime May winter storm? We have to name this one.

  • whitelightning

    thundersnow is a distinct
    possibility with this set up, which would make an amazing 4th time
    this has occurred in the area this season and likely the only time
    this area has seen thundersnow in May since record keeping began. As
    the upper low begins to close off this evening, the axis of heaviest
    precipitation will begin to pivot into more of a NNW-SSE orientation,
    possibly leading to some enhanced precip amounts wherever this pivot
    point occurs. Right now this looks to occur close to Kansas City.

  • j-ox

    Ice pellets in NW Lawrence hitting the windows.

  • stjoeattorney

    The snow let up, but it is coming down heavily again. We are still in a drought situation, we have not had as much rain or snow as is the Kansas City area. Moisture in any form is much needed.

    It is pretty to look at actual window, against the blossoms of the magnolias, red buds and lilac bushes.

    That having been said, it is 11 AM, the highest sun angle of the day is at 1 PM two hours from now. We have a little bit of flesh accumulating on north facing grassy areas and in other shaded areas.

    Heavy snow at 11 AM.

  • stjoeattorney

    REAL HEAVY HEAVY SNOW NOW BLACK ROOFS TURNING GRAY

    11:15 AM

  • PILOT MISER

    Temps are dropping in Platte city. 36 this morning and we are at 34 right now.

    Cold and windy with light rain.

  • stjoeattorney

    If it stays in mid 30s today and the main storm moves out tonite will surface temps have a chance of falling to 30-31? That creates all types of issues??!!

    Or will it warm up this pm 4-7pm?? Before the cut off low move in??

    Thanks Gary!

    Lightning!! or Transformer!!

  • melafinatu

    So…who’s for snow in June?

  • someweatherdude

    The radar returns near KC show the precipitation field actually backing up toward the west. Shouldn’t we be watching the radar at this point, rather than the models?

  • snowplowman

    I think TWC should name the California wildfire. How about “Wildfire Bernie”

  • yewtrees

    Source: NWS

    Coldest high temperature in May: 43F May 5, 1944

    Latest (and only) measurable snowfall in May: 1.7 inches (May 3 1907)

    Latest snowfall in Kansas City: Trace on May 11, 2005

    • R-Dub

      I looked it up, and I’m pretty sure the “snow” on May 11, 2005 was actually accumulating hail. NWS calls anything frozen on the ground “snow.”

  • Drought Miser

    These tight thermo lines are going to make the difference in this event! Some will get hammered and some will get diddly squat! Either way to even be discussing this in May is crazy!

  • stjoeattorney

    NOON SLUSH IN THE GRASS AND SOME WHIT ON FLAT AREAS. PEAK SUN IN ONE HOUR. STILL GOOD SNOW…..

  • KCsnowhater

    So, the big rains we were supposed to get are no longer going to happen?

  • Skylar

    Wxcaster models show 5-8″:

    “http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays-40.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

    “http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

  • PILOT MISER

    Rain and sleet now in Platte City. Very little sleet mixed with the rain

  • well the snow sure is happening MUCH earlier than originally predicted!! Seems with it falling earlier it will make surface temperatures a bit colder for any night time snow that will fall. Interesting that NWS had no snow predicted for daytime hours, at least for my part of town, Olathe, till just now LOL.

  • HeatMiser

    34 degrees in Lawrence with rain. Just found sleet on my windshield.

  • ArmyMa

    I’m also in St. Joseph. Temps have dropped 3 degrees since around 9am, when it was 38 and started snowing. It is heavy at times and sticking in places. Dear son is in Maryville, where the ground is white. Good grief!!

  • PILOT MISER

    So far I have just under an 1″ of rain so far .92 in my gauge. A wet start to May is a good thing.

  • RickMckc

    Looks to me like the target zone of heavy snow on both the US models is shrinking. KC is still in the bullseye of the heaviest, but that eye is a lot smaller than yesterday’s runs.

    If it’s too cold and too wet for golf, it’s at least fun to be part of history!

  • stjoeattorney

    33 SNOW+ STILL CARS ARE GETTING SLUSHY IN THE LOT ON WINDOWS ETC. GRASS HAS WHITE IN IT, IF IT WERE EVEN 7-8 PM WITH NO SUN IT WOULD ACCUM IN THE GRASS.

  • Casebier

    East of McLouth..now 32.9 and snowing. Watching a robin out my window. There are some pretty strong wind gusts. Wonder how that will factor in. Heavy wet snow should not blow a great deal.

  • PILOT MISER

    Sleet more now in Platte city. Rain sleet and a few fat snow flakes.

  • dudelove

    You cannot believe how incredibly stoked for this weather I have been ever since I opened my pool three weeks ago. Ugh, nothing worse than cleaning your pool with a frozen skimmer in the cold weather. But, I can’t complain too much, this storm is just like Mother Nature helping out with my water bill.

  • stjoeattorney

    In looking at the radar in Topeka and Wichita I am seeing more development in Wichita and also, in the northwest quadrant of the Topeka radar [intensity and coverage], I have yet to spot a rotation in the precipitation to find out where the “bull’s-eye” will end up being tonight. Nor in the satelite loops.

    It is after 1 PM, the sun is now beginning to set, if the snow continues, perhaps it will continue to accumulate on the grassy areas and automobiles.

  • snowplowman

    Just dropped to 40 at Raintree Lake. Light mist for last few hours.

  • R-Dub

    39 and plain old rain in downtown OP.

  • stjoeattorney

    It is beginning to look a lot like Christmas, snow continues, most car windshields are, most rooms are covered, even on the South side, more and more, the grasses becoming white.

    The big question is when will the pivot, where will it. Or will it bring itself out?

  • Oh no… just had the dreaded database error, major weather events always over-load the blog. I wonder why they refuse to correct the problem.

  • Starting to sleet in NW Olathe.

  • anshad

    Models point to temps warming up after this weekend, and staying that way… May 17th looks interesting according to the GFS, but that far out, who knows. Shows CAPE values at 4000, and humidity and temps up. Just wanted to give everyone warmer thoughts…

  • Blizzard365

    This is beyond exciting! Can’t wait. Drop temps drop!

  • Blizzard365

    The craziest part of this is the date! And I don’t mean that its a late storm. It is, but the last time it snowed in may was may 3rd! So it could be that the only 2 days with accumulating snow in may, will both end up being on the same date, 106 years apart.

  • Cacti51

    I second csitzman’s observation. Sleeting in Olathe–127th & Ridgeview

  • StormyWX

    The snow’s started out here now in west KCK a few minutes ago.

  • PILOT MISER

    All snow now in Platte City.

  • blue8091

    Sleeting in S. OP (119th/Antioch) :(

  • XPGoD

    To those folks that have remarked on the Blog giving errors… It works like this… the hosting is through network solutions (vux.netsolhost.com). Meaning, the server is within the network of Network Solutions in Herndon, VA with a possible backup server in Ohio.

    What does this mean? Well, if they (the admins of the blog) complain of an issue, it means getting the admins at the other end (Network Solutions) to experience the same errors, and find the bug/problem. This can become somewhat difficult as they are running this blog on a shared hosted solution. Also remember that the promise of “yeah x number of people won’t be an issue” can be a multitude of problems that “in time” will be fixed. That could be not using WordPress, or hosting their own solution in house giving them better capacity to the traffic… at this time, the traffic being considered for this blog is shared beyond that of 1000+ other sites at any one given time. The one DNS name that points to the same IP that gave me a chuckle was healthychillicothemo.com… since when?

    Anyway, I hope this helps most of you guys understand the stress of the issue and plausable reasons why they have “503″ errors..which is the application pool..albeit with human manipulation behind its cause.

  • funwweather

    Just light cold rain here in the Raytown/Lees Summit area. Excited to see the day unfold!

  • Casebier

    from looking at the radar I just don’t see how the precipitation will last much longer. Any thoughts from the experts???

  • f00dl3

    Amazing the NWS hasn’t even put out a Winter Wx Advisory – already got some slideoffs occuring per the police scanner in JoCo KS. Expecting 2-6″ of snow tonight. With that much snow, it could cause power outages. This point in the season, by all means, that should be a WSW.

  • Showing heavy now at KCI Airport

  • f00dl3

    Latest NAM really backing down on snow. May not have anything much after this wave moves out.

  • Springfield NWS has issued a WWA for southwest MO along the state line including Nevada and Joplin MO

  • PILOT MISER

    Heavy snow in Platte City. No accumulation. So far.

  • stjoeattorney

    Okay, I just did the radar tour, Springfield radar shows precipitation moving north north west, St. Louis radar also shows North Northwest, and if you look closely the far eastern portion of Kansas City, radar is also beginning to bend North Northwest. It appears as if they will be a dry before this precipitation moves back in later on this afternoon or this evening.

  • f00dl3

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM/2013050218/USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_023.gif” – 0.5 – 1.0″ falling in the metro, none would probably stick.

  • stormchaser

    More fun facts at 3pm: It is warmer on the North Dakota/Canadian border than it is in Kansas City.

  • Skylar

    Getting a heavy sleet shower in southern OP

  • Theo

    NWS may issue a WWA around 3:40pm when the night crew comes in. Otherwise, won’t get one.

    Sleet at JCCC @ 2pm.

  • Drought Miser

    Sleet on the plaza!!

  • Drought Miser

    We need an afternoon blog update! Before 4 pm news we deserve it devoted following

  • Rock Hardon

    I see several comments from MM. I thought that based on the below (THE FACTS) he wasn’t going to post here any more. Did he miss us?

    mowermike
    April 28, 2013 at 10:28 AM
    Theo,

    Nope, not threatening anyone, just making a factual comment that you and the other few that talk loud would never say the same in person. That’s my point….nothing further. I offered several times to meet up and settle. Not one response. I’m not saying it’s going to be a fight, I don’t like fighting, never have never will, just saying what is said on here would never be said in person. Everything I say I have no problem proving. Will do any day. I have serious doubts that you would show and say the same things you do on here…. Bottom line Theo, you know it too. It’s not normal to talk to strangers the way you do on here.

    Other than you and a few others that are really just one guy(multiple screen names)I’m sure the rest of the bloggers know that I’m not the instigator.

    Have your fun, until this mess cleans up on here, I’m not interested in posting anymore. I don’t like yacking back in forth to people that wouldn’t do it face to face. That’s a fact for ya. It’s plain silly.

    The blog cleaned up for a while, but it’s a mess again. Have fun talking loud, we both know this blog is as far as the loud talk will go.

    I asked for peace a few days ago, I just want to talk weather

    • Theo

      RH: He can’t stay away from the blog anymore than he can stay away from the dance next Saturday night where he gets beat up. Then again the next Saturday, and again the next… oh well, you get the point. He’s always been a liar and a blowhard. He still begs KSHB to do live shots at his house so he can put up another banner about the Chiefs or the Royals or what ever former hero of his has now let everyone down, so it’s Mikey’s job to fix it for all humanity! Funny guy. His Dad too.

      • kcpurpledog

        The O. This is purplehog in your world. Great post. Really classy. You are just such a great human. I admire you. I want to be just like you. Please tell me how.

      • RickMckc

        And your posts over the past few days were really good. You were actually making a positive contribution to the blog.

        Do your parents know you are acting like this?

  • tushchaser1

    Wait a second…one of the models is really cutting down on the snow totals? That is crazy!

    Oh, and it appears that the NWS has backed down the “snow” totals for my neck of the woods too. Went from 1-3 inches tonight to less than an inch of snow expected from the ENTIRE event.

    Currently sitting at a balmy 38 degrees, watching it rain.

  • Changing over to snow in NW Olathe. Sleet and snow are starting to accumulate on some surfaces, but not on roads or grass.

  • stjoeattorney

    No WWA they removed the snow out of Buch, Plat, Clay, Dekalb, Clintin Cnys in MO {accm’ing snow} Cass too, Jackson all for overnite. I think this slid to Joplin Springfield area.

    • stjoeobserver

      You totally read something wrong :) WWA just issued with 1-3″ in the advisory with “slightly” less on the roads which reads as .5″ to 2″ on the roads to me, but I may take slightly to be something different!

  • Kole Christian

    Snow at HWY 152 and I-29

  • R-Dub

    Sleet mixing in here (near downtown OP). Temps down to 35. No accumulation on any surfaces.

  • Skylar

    Sleet accumulating on roof tops and in the grass a little bit.

  • Cacti51

    WWA for KC Metro!

  • Kole Christian

    I thought it wasn’t suppose to start snowing until 8pm tonight?

    • stjoeobserver

      Cooler temperatures aloft than expected? Sfc temps look to be lower than expected as well.

  • f00dl3

    Sleet accumulating on elevated surfaces in Lenexa right now 95/SFTD area.

  • Skylar

    Winter weather advisory issued

    • Skylar

      They’re still expecting 1-3″

      • tushchaser1

        Funny how the NWS has changed their forecast so many times today. I guess it is hard to be wrong when you can flip flop back and forth.

        Like a politician, you can definitely play both sides if you make the a different argument each time a question is presented!

  • Kole Christian

    yep, winter weather advisory

  • R-Dub

    Funny how temps are bouncing up and down…Topeka now back up to 38 and reporting rain after having snow earlier.

  • snowmiser

    Dusting to 6 inches, 3-5 scenarios, “as I predicted last week” (every storm)….how could a meteorologist ever be wrong with that forecast. Its hedging all situations.

  • RickMckc

    Based on the above post by “Rock” and the nature of his post (attacking, not related to weather), I guess our feedback to Gary the other day meant squat.

    Snowing near I-29 & 64th. Looks to be close to .8 in the rain gauge.

    • Theo

      Why should the truth hurt you? You that big of a crybaby? It was a repost of Mikey’s BS. He didn’t attack anyone. Get over yourself Ricky. Rickey & Mikey. Huh, that makes sense. Are you really the purplehog?

      • RickMckc

        Not crying, just making an observation.

        And no I am not the purplehog. I’m married, have a full-time job, father of three daughters and I really like golf, BBQ, the Royals and weather.

        Now, who are you?

      • kcpurpledog

        Hey The O. This is the purplehog. 10-1 odds that you have little man syndrome in more ways that one. And once and for all Mike and Rick are not me.

        • mowermike

          Kc/Rick,

          “Nope, not threatening anyone, just making a factual comment that you and the other few that talk loud would never say the same in person. That’s my point….nothing further. I offered several times to meet up and settle. Not one response”

          Once again, the facts don’t lie. They’re all talk on here. I’m willing to prove all….as you know, not one of the talkers has agreed to meet. Let them talk, that seems to be a joy for them.

          • Rock Hardon

            Mike,

            What about the “factual comment” that you made about not you not being interested in posting here anymore? Your strategy of copying and pasting previous comments is pretty cool. And using those pasted commments to call out people on their “bs” is even cooler. So how do you reconcile you saying you were not posting on here anymore and the fact that you are posting on here. Identity theft? Forgery? An alien invasion? Or just a big heaping of BS? Talk about people not backing up what they say….

            mowermike
            April 28, 2013 at 10:28 AM
            Theo,

            Nope, not threatening anyone, just making a factual comment that you and the other few that talk loud would never say the same in person. That’s my point….nothing further. I offered several times to meet up and settle. Not one response. I’m not saying it’s going to be a fight, I don’t like fighting, never have never will, just saying what is said on here would never be said in person. Everything I say I have no problem proving. Will do any day. I have serious doubts that you would show and say the same things you do on here…. Bottom line Theo, you know it too. It’s not normal to talk to strangers the way you do on here.

            Other than you and a few others that are really just one guy(multiple screen names)I’m sure the rest of the bloggers know that I’m not the instigator.

            Have your fun, until this mess cleans up on here, I’m not interested in posting anymore. I don’t like yacking back in forth to people that wouldn’t do it face to face. That’s a fact for ya. It’s plain silly.

            The blog cleaned up for a while, but it’s a mess again. Have fun talking loud, we both know this blog is as far as the loud talk will go.

            I asked for peace a few days ago, I just want to talk weather

          • RickMckc

            Mike, if you get any takers, I’d like to join you. I really want to know – who are these fearless bastions of the keyboard?

  • stjoeobserver

    34 degrees at my location in St. Joe right now with light snow still falling. I haven’t seen it transition from snow at all today. I’d be shocked if there is no accumulation now.

  • Skylar

    Starting to mix with snow by JoCo executive

  • funwweather

    Turning over to a wintery mix just SE of Raytown

  • PILOT MISER

    Heavy fat flake snow in Platte City now. No accumulations. Still way too warm

  • Coach KC

    Still rain only just north of downtown…by the way, the WWA says it runs from 1AM to 1PM for those of you thinking the snow is coming early…

  • AnonymousVJ

    Hey guys, I have a question one of you might be able to answer:

    Has a Winter Weather Advisory EVER been issued by EAX or just for Kansas City in the month of May?

    • RickMckc

      Not sure, but I would bet not since the only measurable accumulation was 1.7 in 1907, long before they had a warning system.

  • Drought Miser

    Snowflakes now mixed in on the Plaza!

  • stl78

    Was a tad south of prescot wi theo. Impressive totals. Lots of downed limbs n powerlines. How is it at your parents? Now back in winona with much less snow. however, its still comin down. Glad to b back in doors after a long day!

  • f00dl3

    Just turned over to snow. ~33 outside. Snow accumulating on top of sleet on elevated surfaces, roofs, etc. Sticking to some patches in the yard.

  • Skylar

    Heavy snow now

  • big fat fluffy flakes falling in abundance in Olathe, already accumulating on cold surfaces especially where sleet has accumulated. This is just surreal!!

  • Coach KC

    Spoke too soon….it’s now lightly snowing just north of downtown!

  • shoedog

    snow flakes mixed with rain at 133rd and Roe

  • stjoeobserver

    Although I wouldn’t consider TWC to be a reliable source of forecasting, their latest 48 hour snowfall forecast graphic has KC getting 5-8″ with a widening bullseye of 6-12″ developing right around the Platte City area and extending into downtown KC and up to St. Joseph.

  • Cacti51

    Snow at 127th & Ridgeview!

  • stormchaser

    Downtown KC is all snow. Moderate snow.

  • blue8091

    Big, fat, fluffy flakes falling pretty heavily at 119th & Antioch. Crazy!

  • Cacti51

    This is AWESOME! Totally enjoying this recordbreaking day! :)

  • “http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=eax”

    NWS says 2-4″ with isolated higher amounts for KC

  • RickMckc

    “Real” snow near I-29 & 64th. Incredible.

  • f00dl3

    W. O. W. I. E.

    That’s all I can say.

    Throwing the NAM out and nowcasting at this point.

    • tushchaser1

      Sure you are. The NAM backed off on the snow totals, so now is the time to “nowcast.”

      However, if the NAM would have blasted us, oh man, it would have been the model to go with.

  • j-ox

    Just a hair shy of 1″ of total precip since last night = May 1. MAY DAY ~ MAY DAY!!

  • stl78

    @rick ….wow 3 girls!

  • funwweather

    All snow SE of Raytown! So exciting to watch.

  • Moderate snow outside my office in Raytown. Accumulating on the cars.

  • Hunter

    Fluffy wet flakes has been falling for the last 15 minutes or so at College Blvd and Metcalf in Overland Park. Cold surfaces on cars and grass are already starting to turn white. Wow.

  • shoedog

    Well hard to believe but now only four months I haven’t seen snow in Kansas City since being here in 1989. June, July , August, September. CRAZY

  • TWC is now forecasting 5″-9″….

    Somebody needs to change their forecast.
    “Tonight: Snow. 4 to 6 inches”
    “Friday: Snow ending. 1 to 3 inches”

  • stjoeattorney

    Looking at the Springfield and Kansas City radar there appears to be a developing band of precipitation moving west northwest that will collide with the band that is passing through the area moving north north north east. I suspect when this occurs we will have it bend around and where that is, that will be the pivot point.

  • Skylar

    Dusting by JoCo execuitve with strong winds.

    • tushchaser1

      I called a friend who lives by JOCO executive and he said “strong winds with sleet and rain, no dusting.” Wonder if you guys are seeing the same thing?

      • R-Dub

        Could be going back and forth from snow then sleet/rain. Lawrence now 37, rain again after being snow. Topeka 40 and overcast.

      • Skylar

        Would you like a picture? The snow is definitely accumulating, if only a little bit right now.

  • RickMckc

    Snow sticking on raised surfaces and rooftops near I-29 & 64th.

    EAX AFD forecast seems very conservative based on their discussion of the dynamics of this storm.
    “http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=EAX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1″

    Can’t believe the Royals actually tried to play this afternoon.

    • stjoeattorney

      Just read it too!

    • Skylar

      You referencing this part?

      “But feel confident that a
      band of snow from 1 to 3 inches will occur from extreme eastern
      Kansas/western Missouri through northern Missouri. There could
      potentially be higher amounts as raw model amounts are much higher
      in some locations, but confidence is just not high enough to go much
      higher than what is being forecast. The time of year, the rarity of
      this type of system and only one other occurrence of measurable snow
      in May in the KC area don`t lend themselves to forecasting much more.”

      • RickMckc

        Well, that was their conclusion but this part …

        “system still shows a positive tilt but tonight will start to become negatively tilted as the energy dives into eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas. This will greatly enhance the upward vertical motions of the storm leading rapid cooling aloft of an already cold upper system. As this deepening of the upper low occurs, a band of strong frontogenesis is expected to develop underneath a strongly diffluent upper jet and very strong QG forcing. This intense coupled forcing may even combine with some slightly negative equivalent potential vorticity values, further enhancing precipitation rates by adding instability to the mix.”

        … seems pretty dramatic. Basically, the storm is forecast to explode right over us tonight and we’re already seeing snow and it is sticking. Just surprised they would not expect the “explosion” to produce a more hefty result.

  • mgsports

    Schools in MO could be closed tomorrow.

  • RickMckc

    So, what Gary will predict at 5?

    My hunch is he will go for it and call for 3-5″ throughout the metro area.

  • Drought Miser

    A nice dusting to.5″ inch now on my rail and deck in Merriam!!!

  • PILOT MISER

    We have accumulation in Platte City. Heavy heavy snow falling. Grass is white. Rooftops covered. Cars covered.

    Never thought I would see this in May.

  • mukustink

    Chestnuts raosting on an open fire. It’s Christmas in May Yahoo

  • stjoeattorney

    4-7 isolated 9 inch total someplace. we have more cold already, the upper dynamics and no sun will drop us to 31-33 and then party is on for someone. very complex.

    KC radar is moving almost NNNNE now and new developmendt moving NNNW…..interesting!!!!!

    Just short of an inch of liquid.

    Hard Snow again. S+

  • mattmaisch

    So far, it’s all sleet here in Blue Springs. Haven’t seen a flake yet, but lots of sleet for a while now.

  • Grass is now almost completely covered here in NW Olathe. Saw the WWA for the area warning of 1-3 inches. Based upon how it is coming down and looking at the radar, I’m thinking it is going to be at least 3 inches, maybe more like 5 or 6. Have a friend back in Minnesota and their forecast was for 3 inches. They got 13 inches. Seems like no one anywhere in this country knows what this storm in going to do.

  • Skylar

    The GFS isn’t great for this time range, but here it is FWIW:

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013050218&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=048″

    Tiny shift east from earlier runs

    • mattmaisch

      What do you mean? It’s got 6″+ for the entire metro on the Missouri side. Where do you live Skylar?

      • Skylar

        I see how that was confusing; it was a nice run if you like snow. :) But being such a coarse model, it isn’t very accurate for an event that’s already started.

  • Drought Miser

    Royal’s just got Snowed out!!

  • Hockeynut69

    Looks like the snowflake contest in the month of May could end early in the month. OK who had 7:37pm, you may win……nothing.

    This is just crazy but kind of fun and exciting as well.

  • R-Dub

    It’s been snowing hard for a while here and not a speck on the roads or sidewalks. I expect we will see some changing back and forth to rain and sleet and plenty of melting…that’s why the total accumulations won’t be that high despite the intense dynamics of the storm.

  • mattmaisch

    Now 33.4 degrees in Blue Springs per Weather Underground.

  • braysmama

    33.8 degrees and snow in Blue Springs.

  • blueflash

    One of 50 or so fans at the K today. Cancelled after 2 hour rain/snow delay. Why they just didn’t get in the 20 minutes or so for the last inning is a mystery to me. Anyway, 1/2 inch on elevated surfaces here in Independence.

  • Kcchamps

    TWC is saying 5-8″ for the metro

  • mukustink

    Hey Gary I thought I saw part of a mothball on your snow vest. I’m sure it was packed away for the year. LOL

  • stl78

    Lol@ tush1

    • mukustink

      How about them Blues the other night! Scared the heck out of me when they gave up that goal with 30 seconds left. Lets hope we can go to LA up 2-0. Perfect hockey weather outside!

  • stjoeobserver

    Weather Channel forecast just dropped the forecast low for St. Joseph from 32 to 31 degrees. Good sign of the temperature we need.

  • stl78

    That was scary muku! That was a must win. We dominated and almost lost. Would have been a sad way to lose. Glad its on local tv up here!

  • weather111

    35 degrees at my house in northwest lawrence. Radar may show rain but it’s acutally snowing here not sticking to anything yet though

  • Skylar

    New blog