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A Very Quiet Start To Severe Weather Season

Good morning bloggers,

The National Weather Service tweeted this out yesterday:  “For our counties of responsibility, 2019 has been really quiet on the severe weather front compared to the past several years. We have only issued 13 severe t-storm warnings so far this year, and no tornado warnings yet”.

Severe Weather Last Few Years

Wow! This is just a fascinating stat!  Cooler air may be a factor again next week.

A Wet & Stormy Weather Pattern Is In The Forecast

The part of this years cycling weather pattern, the LRC, that produced the coldest weather during the winter will be cycling back through in the next two weeks.  Remember the forecast for the Chiefs/New England game back on January 19th weekend?  The weather forecast psychology of that weekend is one that should be studied.  At first, it appeared it may be in the single digits with wind chills way below zero.  Media outlets around the nation went with that brutally cold discussion and then just a couple days later it suddenly looked like it may be near 30 degrees for the game.  What happened on January 20, 2019 in KC?  The high was only 19° with a low of 6° with a few snowflakes falling during the day.  It ended up being ridiculously cold as was anticipated.  That was the beginning of a two week stretch of brutally cold air across the United States. Kansas City had low temperatures in the single digits seven of the last twelve days of January, including -6° on January 30th, the coldest temperature of the winter.  There is Order In Chaos within this cycling weather pattern, and Weather2020, LLC has cracked the code.  This part of the pattern, that produced the brutal cold outbreak, will be cycling back through in the next two weeks.    As this pattern cycles back through, we will now likely have the set up for potential flooding, severe weather, and snow over the plains and upper midwest.

Rainfall forecasts Next Ten Days:

The models have many varying rainfall solutions over the next ten days to two weeks.  There will be flooding rains, severe weather set ups, and snow (farther north).  Where will each storm target?  The finer details will be worked out from storm to storm.  Here is the European Model ten day precipitation totals from last nights model run:

f5weather-27

Today’s Weather:

  • Today:  A cold front will be on KC’s doorstep around 3 PM.  There is a slight chance of a few thunderstorms along the front, and then cooler air will move in.  Expect a high near 75° today with cooler air arriving by the evening rush hour
  • Friday:  Mostly sunny.  It will start out in the 40s and warm up to near 70 degrees with light winds.
  • Saturday:  There is a chance of early morning thunderstorms, and then the wind will shift and increase from the northwest.  The chance of rain is 60% before 9 AM.  High:  70°
  • Sunday:  Mostly sunny.  Morning frost is possible with a low of 35°.  High:  60°

Look at this intense storm at the surface Saturday:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_10

I will be going in-depth on 41 Action News tonight!

Go to the Weather2020 blog by clicking here, Weather2020 Blog , to join in the conversation.  There will be moderation on this blog to increase our positive experience.  Please be patient as there will be times where it is just a few minutes before your post is accepted, or it could take a couple of hours.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

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