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A Tropical System May Have Influences Farther North

Good morning bloggers,

Let’s begin today’s blog with a national look at the weather pattern and how a developing weak tropical storm will likely influence the weather pattern. I have been monitoring the pattern closely to see if this tropical system will actually influence the weather forecast for areas as far north as Kansas City, and I am confident now that it actually will have at least a subtle impact. Let’s take a look.

National Weather Picture

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This first map, above, shows the developing surface weather pattern valid at 7 PM Wednesday. The GFS model is showing the tropical system approaching the Louisiana/Texas coast line, and at the same time there is a much larger scale system developing over Nebraska. This Nebraska system is a synoptic scale storm that spans 1,000 miles or more with its frontal systems, while the tropical system is much smaller scale spanning a few hundred miles. As the tropical system moves north the influence on the larger scale feature may seem subtle, but it is likely going to be a factor into where thunderstorms form, how the precipitation pattern develops, and more. If there was no tropical system, this central plains storm would not be developing as shown on these next few maps.

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This second map shows the tropical system now inland over eastern Texas. The front over Nebraska will have gone through a transition with some effects that are rather subtle showing up as the circulation from the tropical system moves inland. One important note: The strength of the tropical system before it crossed the coast is important. If it has developed a very strong circulation, then it is likely to have this impact or bigger on the flow. If it ends up weaker or takes a different track, then the influences may not be as great.

The front on the map above moves south, and take a look at where it is forecast to be located by 7 AM Friday:

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On this next map, above, you can see some of the subtle, yet perhaps not so subtle affects from the circulation from the tropical system. The front begins to wrap around the tropical system, and then it jumps south. Take a look at this 7 PM forecast:

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This really becomes interesting on Friday. Just look at this forecast map. It is just a forecast, but only three mornings away.  What is left of the tropical systems actually in Missouri on this forecast map. The cold front will have either surged south, or redeveloped with the tropical system influence.  A week ago, this front was looking like another severe weather producing system, and it still may be so, but the tropical low may reduce that threat a bit farther north.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  Sunny and hot. High: 91°
  • Tonight:  A few evening clouds. There is a weak wind shift line near the area, but any chance of thunderstorms appears extremely low. So, it should be dry for the big Royals game against the Red Sox with light winds and a first pitch temperature around 88 degrees.
  • Wednesday:  Mostly sunny and hotter. High: 93°
  • Thursday: Mostly sunny and hot. High:  94°
  • Friday:  Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of rain or thunderstorms. High:  84°

Have a great day. Let us let this sort itself out in the next 24 hours and look into the trends in tomorrow’s blog. Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. We will be opening comments on this blog sometime next week. For  now, you can join in the conversation on Weather2020.com.

Gary

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