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A Tropical System Is Developing In The Gulf

Good morning bloggers,

A tropical system is forming near the Yucatan Peninsula and may become a tropical storm today as it drifts into the Gulf of Mexico.  Around two weeks ago Meteorologist Jeremy Nelson, who learned about the LRC while working here in KC and is now the Chief Meteorologist at WJCL in Savannah, GA called me and asked me about the cycle length of the LRC. He noticed that there would likely be a tropical system forming by looking at the previous two LRC Cycles.  After our discussion he made this forecast and shared it with his viewers.  The National Hurricane Center then came out with this prediction over the weekend. This is a great example of how the LRC can help in making longer range predictions way ahead of traditional methods being used. Wow, look at what Jeremy showed on the air and how similar it is to what the NHC put out over this past weekend:

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Here is this mornings enhanced satellite picture taken from Weathertap.com:

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There is a lot to see on this satellite picture.  There was another complex of thunderstorms over northeastern Texas, and you can see the high cloud tops enhanced near the Yucatan Peninsula.  Active storm systems were tracking across the northeast Pacific Ocean, and we will be monitoring that system closely as we move through this week. Jeff Penner showed the cycling pattern well in yesterdays blog entry.

The Developing Pattern:

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The models have varying tracks for where this tropical system will cross the coastline.  The map above shows the system intensifying as it moves north tonight and tomorrow over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters.  The GFS then takes it north into Louisiana and Alabama, while the NAM and European Model take it farther west:

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Let’s see how it develops today.  While this is all going on Kansas City is under a band of late spring cloud cover. Summer begins in two days! Have a great day and thank you for participating sharing in this weather experience .

Gary

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