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A Tropical System In The Pacific To Monitor

Good morning bloggers,

The National Hurricane Center has placed a 70% chance of tropical storm development near Baja California in the next five days.  This is a system that we will be paying close attention to as well, as the pattern becomes favorable for bringing moisture from this systems and spreading it our way this weekend.  The big Plaza Art Fair is this weekend, so this is something that has my attention.  Here is the 5-day prediction for formation from the NHC:

Screen Shot 2018-09-17 at 7.24.53 AM

Screen Shot 2018-09-17 at 7.20.19 AM

This next map above shows what may be a tropical storm over the warm waters of the Gulf of California.  While this system develops and tracks northeast, Kansas City is going to have a rather warm week with a cold front still located far to the north on Wednesday night.    This next map, below, shows the prediction from the European Model valid Saturday morning. This model may or may not be over predicting the organization to this system coming in from the tropics.  The GFS model has another solution, and it is still a bit similar to this one in the production of rain.  The GFS may be a bit more realistic with less surface development and it would have us in the colder air.  This will sort itself out in the next few days.

Screen Shot 2018-09-17 at 7.20.56 AM

Now, look closely. Do you see the purple line in Canada on these forecast maps?  The purple line shows the 540 thickness line, which is the 50/50 snow line, and there will be significant snow in Canada. Last winter, that 540 thickness line was rarely ever discussed because we had very few chances for significant snowfalls, and when we did have chances, this line was not a major factor.  Let’s hope we have to discuss this 540 line in the next few months.  Okay, I got on a tangent, let’s get back to this map below.  This forecast map from the Euro model shows heavy rainfall on Saturday. Again, this is the weekend of the Plaza Art Fair, and it appears we have a weather forecast problem.

Screen Shot 2018-09-17 at 7.21.33 AM

Fall begins at 8:54 PM Saturday night. This is when the sun sets at the North Pole, and as discussed in the peer reviewed paper on the LRC this is when the pattern may truly begin developing.  We are still in the old pattern now, the 2017-2018 LRC continues for just two to three more weeks.  Let’s see how this all sets up.

And, HOW ABOUT PATRICK MAHOMES for the Kansas City Chiefs?  He set the record for the most touchdowns by any quarterback in NFL history in the first two NFL games of a season with TEN TDs.  Wow!  He had to be almost perfect yesterday, or the Chiefs would have lost. Hopefully the defense gets a bit better, as I am convinced the offense will be GREAT.  Speaking of great, have a GREAT day!  Go to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.  Here is the link:  Weather2020 Blog

Gary

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