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A Super Saturday

Good Saturday,

The weather has been improving on a daily basis since Wednesday and today will be the warmest day since March 23rd.  We have some really nice weekend weather ahead, but there is also a chance of thunderstorms.  So, lets go through the weather today into Monday.  There is an important baseball game on Monday and we will end with the forecast for that event.

It was a beautiful start to the weekend with temperatures in the 50s as the sun rose through the cirrus clouds.

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SATURDAY: Today will be mostly sunny and windy with highs well into the 70s, if not 80° in a few locations.  The humidity will drift up by evening.

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SUNDAY: We have a set up tomorrow that screams severe weather when you are in April, May and June.  We have a surface low in northwest Iowa with a cold front, warm front and dry line coming out of the low.  The point where the fronts meet is called the “Triple Point.”.  It is this location, along the warm front and along the dry line where we must watch for the chance of severe thunderstorms.  There are some limiting factors that we will go into below.

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SUNDAY SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK: There is a slight risk west of I-35 and a marginal risk east of I-35. If any thunderstorms can get going, the main threats would be large hail and damaging winds.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: If you look at the Sunday forecast map above, you can see a cooler wedge of temperatures where highs are around 70°.  This is due to the potential of low clouds hanging tough after they form tonight.  So, this is one limiting factor.  Another factor is warm air aloft, a “Cap”.  The cap alone may be enough to suppress thunderstorms, but if it is coupled with cooler surface temperatures the thunderstorm chance gets close to zero.

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SUNDAY EVENING: Since there are thick clouds, this latest data has just a few showers or thunderstorms Sunday evening, good news for Sporting KC.  We will have to watch this closely and see how this evolves.  We will know more Sunday as we can judge the extent of the low clouds.

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MONDAY: Regardless, of what we see Sunday night, it will be a dry day Monday for the Royals home opener as the system races by.  Right now it looks sunny and windy for the game with highs in the 60s.

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Our next rain chance after Sunday evening is Wednesday-Friday, but they do not look like big storm systems.

Have a great weekend and Let’s Go Royals!

Jeff

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