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A Sunny Friday Forecast & A Texas Storm

Good morning bloggers, It’s Friday!

We will have a sunny Friday with some snow melting today as temperatures go up above freezing this afternoon.  A storm moving across Texas will come right over our viewing area Saturday morning.  There will likely be a rather thick band of clouds with this system, but a strong wave of energy moving across the USA/Canada border at the same time is influencing the surface pattern tomorrow and as a result this storm doesn’t have much of an opportunity to do anything here. There may be a few brief snow showers as the system passes by tomorrow morning as you can see below:

I am just getting started….a bit late this morning….check back in around 9 AM….

We are having a colder & snowier winter than last year already, but it is still lacking on moisture.  We have had 4.6″ of snow so far which is already above last winter when we had 3.9″ the entire season, which was the record for Kansas City’s lowest recorded seasonal total.  Last year was a dominantly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) winter. This year has been more in the negative, although right now it has drifted into the positive. As you can see below, the AO is likely going to go into the negative again and possibly deeply into the negative later in the month:

Based on the LRC, the active part of the pattern will be returning. The best chance of a major winter storm will come during a three week window that will open up later in the month into February.  In the mean time, these weaker systems are having minor impacts on our area.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog.  Let us know if you have any questions or comments.  Have a great weekend.

Gary

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81 comments to A Sunny Friday Forecast & A Texas Storm

  • Dobber

    Gary, do you not have the ability to block bloggers? It is getting a little over the top.

    • mukustink

      Mike looks like your plows will have to saty put for next week the way it’s looking.

      • mukustink

        oops *stay*

      • Dobber

        Eddy I love personal attacks. Thank you so very much. Hopefully we get an ice storm later this month. I would love to make money while you froze in the darkness

        • mukustink

          Mike not a good way to start a day. I (Jonathan) make money no matter what the weather. I wouldn’t freeze as I have a whole home backup generator and 2 fireplaces. I didn’t know keeping the plows parked was a personal attack. Wow are you ok? I mean you call me the wrong name all the time and your post are laced with venom. You need a time out. Please talk about the weather. Thanks. Have a good one :)

          • Dobber

            Eddy, you probably do make money no matter the weather, I’d say about 4 days ago you walked to the mailbox to get your check. Does it offend you your cover is blown? Your whole house isn’t backed up, and you probably don’t even have a fire place Edward. Everyone who knows the blog knows I’m not Mikey, I do miss his insight though. Step out of your dream world and into some work boots. I vote you and tush to be banned! Anyone second me? The weather is so wonderful today. Peace out Eddie.

            • Dobber

              Oh almost forgot I miss Gary the great and garyrocks41 eddie

            • mukustink

              It offends me Mike that you keep calling me Eddy or Edward. Your post also offends me. Until you can call me by my proper name then I vote that you be banned! Trut me you are not as smart as you think you are. Peace out Mikey!

              • Dobber

                I’m smarter than the average bear. Yogi out

              • Dobber

                It offends you huh? Sorry I wouldn’t want to do that. You and tush lash out on people all the time then when someone does moderate you kiss as@. I love the weather this time of the year! Johnny, Eddie, Edward whoever you are grow up and quit lashing out on people. I’ve got a pretty strong will to succeed

                • mukustink

                  Mikey you’re a fool plain and simple. It’s not Johnny it Jonathan or Jon for short. Your getting closer to getting it right. Practice makes perfect.

            • Miky,,What is your problem ???

  • ChiefsFan

    Gary, are you thinking any accumulation with the snow showers tomorrow just curious. Thanks for your time

  • mukustink

    I agree Mike! Gary it’s ok to sleep in once in a while! Looks like Saturday will yield nothing in terms of precip and next week looks to be probably rain. As usual time will tell.

  • mukustink

    A 3 week window is a pretty large window. Are you able to zero in on a shorter time period? I would assume that Jeff is taking over George’s shifts. Thanks have a great weekend!

  • weathermom

    Thanks Gary for the blog weather updates. I enjoy the weather related comments and predictions. I do wish that some people would stay on the topic and stop the personal attacks. It ruins the blog and as a mom I see it as bullying.

    • Dobber

      Bullying isn’t the word for it

    • Gary,keep up the good work…I beleave everyone has the right to free speech…Even the ones who claim this blog as there own,and complain when it doesn,t fit “there” format…I,m a American who believes in freedom of speech…When we have constrictions of this freedom,then society, itself, becomes pawns to a power we,as citizens,will never stand for… My question is,the wave that looks to pass to our east wed.the 9th, does it seem to you that a wintery mix is possible for our area ???

      • Dobber

        Oh so now we want to talk about weather. Not some KFC crap , must be hard trying to play nice today tushy

      • R-Dub

        This is not a free speech issue at all. Free speech doesn’t mean that a private business like KSHB is compelled to give you (or anyone) a forum. Most other blogs would not tolerate your behavior and would have banned you long ago.

        You want to express yourself freely? Go start a tushchaser blog. No one is denying you that right.

        • Agree 1000% R-Dub! This is getting old. Time to be free of the useless, sexist, inappropriate bloggers. That being 3 users. Tush, MUKU, and the other alter ego/user id, Sportsfreaked. Do you really have nothing better to do? Seriously? 2/3rds of the comments are on here are worthless dribble, name calling(or the ohhh so clever name changing…), or what they think are subtle insults, on a GRADESCHOOL level. Nobody owes you a blog. This is property of KSHB, and they can run it as they see fit. Including banning ID’s and IP’s. I’d have banned all 3 months ago! How old are you really? My 14 yr old daughter has more maturity by far! Gary, please get the new boss to appoint a moderator.

  • R-Dub

    Gary, seriously, you need to start deleting posts and accounts. It’s not hard. It won’t get you in trouble with the ACLU. Just do it.

    Aren’t wunderground dot com and NBC now tied together somehow? Ask their web admins for help banning trolls. They do a good job of it.

    • Dobber

      I agree rdub Let’s take back our blog. I for one tired fully useless comments. The KFC forecaster center must be shut down. Maybe mower mike will come back out of the woodwork and help us take back our blog.

      • Gobber,don,t get your beard ruffled…

      • mukustink

        Dobber you are the one making useless comments today. You start out by attacking me and calling me Ed all the time. Who ias the real bully? You are sir. You are not as smart as you think you are. This blog is everyones blog just not a few. Mike has come out of the woodwork his name is Dobber. Right? Have a great day and weekend. Hope it will snow so you can make some money with your plows.

  • R-Dub

    Now onto some comments regarding the actual blog post:

    “Based on the LRC, the active part of the pattern will be returning.”

    When did this pattern begin and end the last cycle?

    “The best chance of a major winter storm will come during a three week window that will open up later in the month into February.”

    Pretty general, and the kind of statement that could be made based purely on climatology with no need for an LRC.

    “In the mean time, these weaker systems are having minor impacts on our area.”

    And based on your forecasts, it looks like the LRC doesn’t really help with these systems.

    • Explain your theory…Can you???

    • Rdub,

      Good questions! The last one is first on my list. The LRC does help with the weaker systems. Occasionally one of these systems could produce some significant weather, but very rarely will they. So, as I said the other day, I should have used the LRC and NOT the GFS or other models and known that these systems were not fitting for us to have a very wet storm. It could still happen, but the chance is reduced.

      “The best chance of a major winter storm will come during a three week window that will open up later in the month into February”. This is very vague, but I have a new product that is just three weeks away from launch that will help out in getting a bit more specific. I do know that the chance of a true “major winter storm” is still quite low, but another series of minor storms, like we have seen are more likely. I do, however, believe that the flow will be more amplified and it will still be in the peak winter period from later January into February. And, this is why one of these storm systems has an increased chance of one major winter storm in our area. I haven’t picked out the exact series of dates, but this can be done. I will try to do this soon.

      The weather pattern is always cycling, but this pattern that we are experiencing right now really began in late September or early October when the long term long-wave troughs and ridges got set up for the season.

      Of course that statement can be made purely on climatology. Absolutely. We can debate the need for the LRC, but for those three weeks, yes there is always a better chance of a major winter storm compared to April or November. But, I am not basing my statement on Climatology. I am using the LRC based on the part of the pattern that will be returning then.

      Now to cleaning up the blog? I promise that this problem will be cleaned up soon. I know I have said this before, but it is currently being addressed.

      Have a great weekend.

  • Emaw

    R-Dub, you stole my thunder, I agree, not exactly a stretch to call for a winter storm during a 3 week timeframe in the heart of winter! I seem to recall something similar to this being stated in the blog just about a year ago.

  • pooter

    Reading through the comments on this blog it doesn’t take long to see that it is NOT FAMILY FRIENDLY and is no place for any impressionable young minds to come to learn more about weather. Maybe lodging complaints to the station’s General Manager are in order to get a full time moderator on here. It’s time for this blog to either be cleaned up or shut down.

  • mukustink

    Thank God Pioli is gone!! Andy Reid is now are head coach.

  • mukustink

    oops *our* head coach.

  • mukustink

    Yes I asked Gary if he could narrow it down some. It’s like saying in the first 3 weeks of August temps could hit the mid 90′s.

  • sportsfreaked

    Mr. Dobber I am Ed. I am not MUKU! I use to come on here and have fun but I rarely post anymore. I do read the blog and I laugh everytime I see you call muku Ed. Now maybe muku and you can stop calling each other Ed and Mikey. I hope this settles it for the both of you.

  • mukustink

    Last day of vacation :(. Back to work on Monday and it looks like rain will be here Wednesday. Please don’t rain on Tuesday unless it’s Tuesday night. New Furniture being delivered Tuesday and really dont’t want it to be raining.

  • McCabe58

    I’m so glad other people are starting to come around! Enough is enough. I’ve been saying it for weeks. Gary, DO something. Rdub has stated some very valid points. You have the power to block or ban these people, so what are you waiting for!?

  • Dobber

    This blog is so out-of-control something must be done immediately to clean this mess up. This blog used to have a lot of weather insight, lately it’s full of attacks and nonsense. I know that I’m on a tear today too but something must be done to clean this up. Gary do you have the power to block users? Can you also identify when users change their names. Johnny maybe you aren’t Ed that’s fine I’m sorry I won’t pick on you anymore

  • Still looks like a wintery mix of Prec. wednesday…Sleet /freezing rain/rain will make driving hazardous,east of the K.C. metro…. This is a update of the 12z GFS… Please stay tuned for further posts… signed, Pres. Kevin

  • Weatherfreak01

    I started following this weather blog to learn more about the weather in the midwest. The weather here is a lot different than So. Cal. where it is smoggy/sunny 300+ days out of the year. Unfortunatly the past year or two I feel like I have learned very little from the blog comments. I just read the above posts in just a couple of minutes because I had to skip 70-75% of the comments because they attack others and are juvenile in nature. The blog is no longer fun to follow. We have lost too many posters who really knew what they were talking about because of the said juvenile behavior. I for one, miss the bloggers who contributed informative knowledgeable posts everytime. There a only a couple of people who post now who seem to know what they are talking about and they don’t seem to post that often.

    • I think I have the answer to why so many bloggers have left….The LRC is not what they were hoping for…Example,, last spring gary said the LRC was indicating a sever season for the midwest,pretty much, the whole month of May…We all know how that turned out…Then Gary(LRC) called for average amonts of prec. for last summer…Again we all know how that turned out…So,for my two cents worth,they left for those reasons….

      • Wrong birdman. They left from the juvenile antics, absolutely worthless comments, and petty attacks from 3 user(ID’s).

        • Dobber

          What 3 id’s Scott. Lets take off the kid gloves

        • mukustink

          You know this for a fact? Have you talked to those folks personaly? I think some left because when someone disagree’s with points of view they get attacked. Look at Jerry who gets jumped on all the time for asking questions. Come on folks. Scott you have no idea what you’re talking about.

  • mukustink

    I think we should hire the A-Team

  • Jerry

    Gary,

    I’ve seen you post about the AO before … including whether it was trending positive or negative.

    Of what value is the AO information in your forecasting? What does a postive or negative AO actually translate to for us here in KS?

    • Jerry,

      A negative AO implies an increasing chance that Arctic air will shift south and make it to KC. A highly negative (-3 or lower) AO indicates a high likely potential of some major blocking, a forcing southward of the jet stream, and an increasing chance of major winter events. But, with this year’s LRC it will still be difficult for one of these storm systems to be centered near KC. The part of the pattern that produced the Iowa blizzard weeks ago will be returning in a few weeks. This part of the pattern, if the AO is strongly negative, could get that storm to be a bit farther south in the next cycle.

  • sedsinkc

    I third what Rdub and Scott are saying about this blog needing enforced moderation. I rarely post because I’m tired of the hateful comments, foul language, and sexual innuendo that has become an all-too-common occurrence here. The web has many other outlets dedicated to vulgar and hateful discourse for those who find it necessary to communicate in this fashion.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Hello all…new to the BLOG and to KC area. Here on my second year. Last year being an aberration in weather, I am excited to observe and participate in a more active weather pattern this year. I have listened to Gary every morning for past two years on the Birder Patrol and decided to follow the blog for the past couple months now. First time posting. I love weather ever since my first days of flying for the AF. I was wondering if anyone could provide soon good sites for model data. I currently use a GRIB app on my iPad to follow and track weather systems. Also is there a blog entry or website for the LRC? Would like to read up on it more. Looking forward to reading the entries and comments throughout the year.

  • ChiefsFan

    Whats tomorrow snow looking like, anything?

    • mukustink

      Tomorrow is a nothing event. May have flurries that’s about it. Nothing to worry about as far as snow goes.

  • bluewolf

    I have recently been fallowed a weather blog site, and they keep discussing the possibility of the polar vortex collapsing and causing massive cold air outbreak for us later this month.

    Anyone heard of this, or knows more?

    • Dobber

      That would be interesting. What blog if I may ask? I may need to go somewhere else, unless this is cleaned up

    • I haven’t read that. Yes, what blog? I have read a few articles talking about the possibility of another “mini ice age”, for the coming reduced solar activity. There is a correlation between the 2 worth keeping an eye on I suppose.

    • I believe that the best chance of a major Arctic outbreak is most likely later in the month into the first half of February. There will likely be some cold surges between now and then with one rather significant warm-up before the likely blast arrives. I will go into more detail of this potential next week.

  • Emaw

    What quandry for the global warming alarmists , a “mini ice age” !

  • HeatMiser

    LoL Gary – “the best chance of an Arctic outbreak is most likely in the second half of January or the first half of February.” – lol…what a bold prediction. I predict sometime in July there will be some very hot weather. “there will be a significant warm up before it gets really cold” – lol, yes usually we get those warm up ahead of big cold fronts as the warm air from the south goes north. “there will likely be more some cold surges before the big surge” – lol, you mean just there has been the last few weeks…you don’t say.

    Folks, if you ignore people making annoying comments on the blog,if you don’t respond at all they eventually get bored and go away. It’s like w/little kids…trying to get attention. If they don’t get attention they’ll quit doing it.

  • bluewolf

    Possible temperature averages later this month, in regards to a possible partial or complete polar vortex break down.

    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-EMz34or55o8/UOWT4qcuRWI/AAAAAAAAQ_o/h5D92jVnG8I/s1600/wk3.wk4_20130101.NAsfcT.gif

  • stjoeattorney

    I knew the warmer air would not last.

    Onto a separate subject, I was not good, but this bull being posted on this blog is becoming irritating. I will admit that I made some outrageous posts when I first came onto this blog, some three or four years ago.

    All the offenders know who they are, act like adults; even if you are a child, if you are a child act like a good child. Let everyone enjoy this site without reading your crap!

  • ChiefsFan

    Haven’t heard much about the storm tomorrow, any updates?

  • Hockeynut69

    It sounds like based on what Brett Anthony was reporting this morning, that next week’s mid week storm will stay to the south of us and may be a non-event as well for KC. It’s so funny because people get giddy more than 7 days out because these silly models throw something out there that looks like a big deal for KC and then becomes a non-event. The models seem to be no better than roughly a 24 hour forecast at best for any accuracy. It’s a shame with the technology that is out there, that these models don’t provide more accurate data. Kind of reminds me of video surveillance at banks and convenience stores. The camera images always seem to be blurry and snowy despite modern technology available.

    • Headdog245

      Hockeynut69,

      I certainly see where you’re coming from, but I think everyone expects too much of these model forecasts. Case and point: The most recent storm for KC(the snow event on NYE) The GFS 6 days prior to this storm did show a very good chance of accumulating snow in KC and surrounding areas. 3 days out from the storm, the same model showed very little for KC and west of here through KS. At the same time this was happening, the NAM came within range of the storm. It was calling for the storm to drop 6-10 inches of snow, and yes, at times it showed the KC area right in the bulls eye. As we got closer, the NAM really stood it’s post but gradually shifted the heaviest south and west of KC.

      Back to the GFS, it started to trend towards it’s original prediction of 6 days prior to the storm and slowly got back to what it previously predicted.

      BTW, both these models did a great job from 3 days out on our first snow.(the 1-4 inch mini blizzard)The GFS predicted it on the Saturday prior to the Dec. 20th event. to verify that, George mentioned the storm on the blog that Saturday before the storm that week.

      My point is, yes the models can be very wrong, but are they really? Location yes, amounts yes, but don’t you think that this is always going to be a problem from 5+ days out. Once again, look at this last storm, the NAM was predicting 6-10 inches of snow for this storm, and that storm did produce 6-10 inches.(Out west in KS) For our area, it did not, considering several runs early on did show the bulls eye here. But, the storm did produce that amount. So, we need to use the models for guidance in the long range and we need to tell ourselves that there will be changes as the storm nears and when it nears, changes are likely on location and amounts. This last storm did produce 1-5 inches of snow in our local area,(the 4 and 5 amounts were isolated but confirmed by the NWS)so, some got about 1 inch and some got the higher end. Some people claimed that the storm was a bust and some claim that the forecast was spot on. This station called for 1-4 inches of snow and that’s what happened. The whole point of the 6-10 day forecast by the weather models is too indicate potentials and tell the viewer to stay tune and see how this evolves.

      There will never be a time where a human or computer will be able to display exact location and amounts from more then 48 hours out, let alone 5+ days out. This will never change, however, it does give us a heads up of possible outcomes for each storm.

      As far as the longer range showing a snow/rain/whatever storm mid next week, yes, it could miss us to the south and east, but the storm is still there. I wouldn’t give up on that one quite yet, still 5 days away.

      As far as people getting giddy on here, well, it’s a weather blog, what else should we discuss?

      I believe that these high tech long range models do save lives, if we didn’t have them how would we know that a tornado out break would be likely in several days, or a major hurricane hitting the coast, or the major blizzard that hit KC twice in 2 years. They’re simply used for possibilities and possible locations they may hit.

      Yes, sometimes they’re way off, but not as many times as they’re on.

      Please don’t take this as a rant or you’re wrong, I’m just speaking my opinion. I do believe the weather models are very important to everyday life.

      Chuck

  • f00dl3

    And the funny thing is – the cameras that don’t really matter and that we would probably be better off without (the spying Scout and red light cameras that cause rear end collisions) have ultra high quality images.

  • sedsinkc

    Generally, one should ingest any model data more than 3 days before the predicted event with a healthy dose of skepticism. Use long-range(>5 days ahead) data as a marker that something might happen, but don’t get too excited about it becoming reality unless it’s extremely consistent from run to run for several days as you approach 5 days from the event. Even then, it can still change as you get less than 5 days from the event.