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A Summer Storm On The First Day Of Summer

Good morning bloggers,

Over the weekend we discussed “A strong LRC argument for a wet week ahead”.  The weather pattern is cycling and there is tremendous organization to what seems like chaos in the river of air flowing across the Northern Hemisphere.  You can learn more about by clicking here and reading the peer reviewed paper:  Cycling Patterns Of The Northern Hemisphere.  I showed clearly that the weather pattern was cycling through the part of the pattern that produced a huge October rain event in Kansas City.  From Gary England, “Lezak, I saw it, I saw the LRC, It’s the same, but different”.  Gary England saw the pattern back in 2009 when a major winter storm was taking aim in Oklahoma City, and I was sharing with Gary something special that he could use to forecast that winter storm.  The same pattern that cycled through in October is now cycling through in June, so when this storm shows up later this week, and you hear from other meteorologists how unusual it is, just know that this is the sixth time through the cycling pattern that this part of the pattern has affected us.  This is the storm I used to predict our first inch of snow, and I was wrong.  The storm showed up in December, right on schedule in cycle 2, but it did not produce that first inch of snow in KC. It should have. Now, what will this storm do this time?

The 500 mb flow valid Friday morning, on the first full day of summer:

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Summer begins at 5:09 AM central time Thursday morning, and around 24 hours later this pattern will be moving across the nation. Look at the circle near KC.  This is a 500 mb low, around 18,000 feet up.  This should produce a lot of rain as it approaches and moves by. In October, Kansas City received almost 3″ of rain as this part of the pattern cycled through. We have not had a day that wet since that October 20-22 storm.

Surface Forecast:

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This map shows the surface forecast valid at 1 PM Friday.  There is a swirl of rain and thunderstorms forecast to be near KC Friday morning.  There is a second storm spinning this way that is pushing, or kicking this lead storm out, and as a result there are multiple chances of rain in the forecast over these next couple of weeks.  Here is the rainfall forecast for the next 15 days:

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Look at the high rainfall totals forces over the corn belt.  12 to 15 inches of rain are forecast by this model with KC on the southern edge of the 3″ plus amounts.  This would be a blessing before summer settles in, if it ever does.  But, will we be left frustrated once again. The frustrations have been almost non stop since this October storm.  So, we will not be shocked by the end of the week if we are left frustrated once again.  We had five days in the 70s before that storm hit in October. And, we are now in a heat wave ahead of this storm in June.

Heat Wave Reaches Four Days:

  • June 13:  83°
  • June 14:  96°
  • June 15:  95°
  • June 16:  95°
  • June 17:  95°

Today will be another sizzler, then some changes begin taking place Tuesday as this storm system, discussed above, begins forming.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience and spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.  Have a great start to the week.

Gary

 

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