Quantcast

A strong winter storm approaches Kansas City

Watch 41 Action News for the most in-depth & accurate winter storm forecast!

Good morning bloggers,

  • WINTER STORM WARNING across northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas (This is north of Kansas City)
  • Winter Weather Advisory for the KC metro area and surrounding communities

Winter Storm Time-line:

  • Today:  Cloudy with a chance of a few rain showers.  High:  45°
  • 6 PM-Midnight:  Scattered showers with a chance of a thunderstorm.  The rain/snow changeover line will be northwest of a St. Joseph, MO to Manhattan, KS line & drifting southeast. Temperatures staying above 32° in most areas.
  • Midnight-4 AM:  Rain changes to snow and becomes heavy at times late in this period.  Temperatures will drop to below freezing with increasing winds as the snow begins to fall.
  • 4 AM-9 AM Thursday:  A 100% chance of snow in all locations with near blizzard conditions possible across northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. 30 to 50 mph winds from the northwest will be increasing and spreading across the local region.  Snowfall accumulations of 4″ to 7″ will be possible north of Kansas City. 1″ to 4″ of snow possible in the Kansas City metro area. And, a dusting to 2″ possible farther south and southeast of Kansas City.  The map is posted below

Weather Summary:A powerful storm will be intensifying over the plains tonight and Thursday.  This will have major impacts on many locations from Kansas and Colorado northeast across parts of Missouri, Nebraska and Iowa extending into Wisconsin, Illinois and other Great Lakes states. It will then affect the northeastern United States for a few days with rain, wind, and snow.  Major Lake-Effect snow will also develop in the wake of this powerful storm that is directly related to the part of the weather pattern, as described by the LRC,  that produced Superstorm Sandy.  The Kansas City viewing area will be impacted by this major winter storm later tonight and Thursday as it intensifies over Missouri early Thursday morning.

This first map shows the beginning of this storm organizing as it moves out into the plains states this evening:

A blizzard will be developing this evening over parts of western Kansas & eastern Colorado extending into southern Nebraska. Kansas City may see a few rain showers and maybe even a thunderstorm, more likely off to our east, this evening.  This storm is then forecast to intensify and, as you can see below on this next map, snow will potentially be heavy for two to three hours as the storm intensifies and tracks across Missouri.  There may be a brief period of sleet as the rain changes to snow by around 3 or 4 AM Thursday.

Near blizzard conditions are possible by the morning rush hour Thursday and it may be difficult to measure the snow in some areas as it will likely be blowing around with winds gusting to over 40 mph, and possibly as strong as 50 mph. We rarely have winds that strong with snow in our area. If we end up with 2 or more inches of snow then the travel conditions will be much worse.  Here is our snowfall forecast as of early this morning. We will update this forecast as we gather more information and this storm comes more into focus this afternoon and evening.

The new data coming out this morning is consistent with what it has been showing and our confidence in this forecast is strong.

Let’s take a look at the evolution of this storm that is taking place right now. This map, on the left, shows the vorticity maximum (Vort Max) located over the northern Texas Panhandle by 6 PM tonight. This is going to actually strengthen and track southeast of Kansas City which will place us in about a 3 to 4 hour period of rather significant snowfall from the lifting near the comma head of this storm.

By midnight the vort max is forecast to track across northern Oklahoma and that little circle near Wichita shows a small upper level low developing.  This storm is now going through the expected intensification as the trough becomes negatively tilted.  If this happens and develops as forecast by this morning’s NAM model, then we would be in that wide band of snow during the early morning rush hour.

On this next map, you can now see the storm becoming negatively tilted. I drew in a dashed black line showing the north northwest to south southeast tilt of the storm which means it is becoming more energetic an maturing into an even stronger system as it crosses the Kansas/Missouri border.  We would fully be in the comma head at this time, but as the trough zips by the precipitation would likely cut off by mid to late morning.

Here is the simulated reflectivity at 6 AM from the NAM model. The blue shade is snow and the green shade is rain. As you can see there isn’t any freezing rain with this system. The little red dots show some sleet.  We may have a brief period of sleet as this system moves in.

The other part of this storm, which may be quite significant, is the wind. Take a look at the surface map valid at 6 AM Thursday:

The strong surface low, that is being generated by the negatively tilted upper level storm, is just northwest of St. Louis. It may be 60 degrees in St. Louis at 6 AM while we drop into the 20s here in Kansas City. It will be quite a strong temperature gradient. And, speaking of gradients, those solid black lines are isobars. And they are quite close together near Kansas City, in fact I think the strongest pressure gradient is right here at 6 AM. This would imply that we will have nearly 50 mph winds for a while tomorrow morning causing blowing and drifting of the snow with a potential ground blizzard.

We will go over these details on 41 Action News today and tonight. Please remember to follow the rules of the blog!

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog!  Let us know if you have any questions or comments as this storm moves through during the next 24 hours.  Check back in for a weather blog update later this afternoon or evening.

Gary

Share and Enjoy:
  • Print
  • Digg
  • StumbleUpon
  • del.icio.us
  • Facebook
  • Yahoo! Buzz
  • Twitter
  • Google Bookmarks

225 comments to A strong winter storm approaches Kansas City

  • RickMckc

    Should be a fun day tomorrow weatherwise. Hopefully we at least get the .5 of moisture.

    And for the GFS next trick … 12z/18z showed snow next week of >18″ here … 0z = 0 snow or anything else. :(

  • Adam Penney

    I hear ya Rick. Not a good day of model runs regarding next week. 0z GFS along with 12z Euro today were just completely deflating. Figures.

  • McCabe58

    Can you guys elaborate please? Did the storm next week just go poof? Or is it rain or are we just going to get missed?

    • The storm next week is still possible but increasingly unlikely. The models have trended away from anything real significant. There is a cold outbreak,

      • Ziggy

        Which is it Gary, you said on Tuesday that a srorm is likely to form just west or sw of KC and slowly move our way. Today you say that a storm next week is possible but increasinly unlikely. What does the LRC say we should expect next week.

      • Ziggy

        If you believe in your theory, why do you hedge your forcast 7 days out based on the model runs. My point is if this storm was still showing up you would be touting a storm.

  • d100patel

    Anybody know what the latest models are saying about today and tomo?!

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    What are the latest NAM and GFS showing for snowfall amounts Gary? Anyone care to post the websites?

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    “http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=eax”

  • Kcchamps

    ok here is my snowfall forecast >> 2-4″ for the metro

  • yewtrees

    “that is directly related to the part of the LRC that produced Superstorm Sandy”. LRC did NOT produce superstorm Sandy, Gary!!!

  • Jerry

    Seriously, your theory allows you to draw parallels between a snowstorm in Kansas and call it similar to a Hurricane in New Jersey…and those are considered “same part of the pattern”?

    • Jerry,

      Yes! But, not a parallel to the hurricane. A parallel to the synoptic scale storm that swallowed up Hurricane Sandy and ended up being called “Superstorm Sandy”. We have been predicting this part of the pattern to return around the 20th of December for weeks, and here it is! And, it will also impact the New Jersey shore with thunderstorms, rain, and a lot of wind. It isn’t just a coincidence Jerry.

      The Kansas part of this storm also existed in the last cycle. A series of waves become strongly negatively tilted over Missouri as it headed east into the formation of the Superstorm back around October 27th to 28th. It’s there Jerry, just open your mind and look at the evolution. It’s happening again, just in a December version. And, it will happen again in February.

      Gary

    • ASickBovine

      Jerry, you have been told over and over that the LRC is based off of synoptic scale systems and what happens around halfway up in the atmosphere, and that it is not based on what happens at the surface.

      • Jerry

        Which begs the question: of what use is it if it simply describes synoptic-scale patterns which are apparently so wide-ranging and vague that they are both conducive to a blizzard in KS or a hurricane on the East coast?

        • Jerry,

          This blizzard in Kansas is related to the part of the cycling pattern that produced Superstorm Sandy. And, I thought there would be a storm near Kansas City in this cycle. Combine this with a rather strongly negative Arctic Oscillation and the storm system is a bit energized. It is farther south than the october version and we are “benefitting”, if it doesn’t affect you poorly in the morning when there is near blizzard conditions, from this for our weather excitement. The next storm, for Christmas went well to the north and it is now being forced south. I discussed this in the Winter Forecast, clearly stating that if the AO goes negative the “hot spots” would shift south, and I said it would likely happen a couple of times. Well, this is one of those times.

  • hushpook

    Gary, at least you’ve got something to talk about. Has to have been a pretty boring year for you. Let’s all say a prayer we get some good moisture out of this, even if it’s not snow.

    • Exactly! It has been a very long boring year without any real storm systems to discuss. Now, let’s see what happens tonight. We are still near the edge of this major storm.

  • Craig

    Btw, The Downplayer threw down the aguntlet last night.
    Mr. Calm During The Storm decided to take on Gary, head on. Said NO SNOW for the metro. “Maybe a 1% chance.”
    Well…let’s just see who’s right, Mr Downplayer. Basing your forecast simply so that you can be contrary to the #1 forecaster is not a recipe for success.

  • R-Dub

    Yep, everyone falling into old patterns. One station’s senior met is doing serious down casting. Meanwhile this station/blog is burying an accurate forecast in a pile of hype. If you just looked at the headlines you’d never realize that the actual forecast for most people in the area is 1 or 2 inches of snow.

    I’m sure there will be problems on the roads because of the winds, and because people haven’t dealt with snow for a long time. But we’re still only talking a couple inches of snow here.

  • mattmaisch

    The 06Z GFS looked painfully similar to the 00Z GFS in regard to next week’s potential storm. Nothing doing. 00Z Euro seemed to echo these sentiments as well. Lots of errors that far out for sure, but with multiple runs in a row prior to these last few showing a big storm, I thought surely something would be in our region of the country next week. Seemingly, that will not be the case at this point. Disappointing for snow lovers like me. Oh well.

    Regarding tonight’s storm. I fully expect the models have a pretty good handle on it and 1-4″ is a good forecast. That said, this is something to watch as this is expected to become a very strong storm as it passes us by. This storm in particular appears to be one of those that a few small changes in track/intensity could mean a pretty sizable difference in snowfall totals in a hurry. Just my thoughts..

    Matt

  • ChiefsFan

    Gary, with the temp gonna be 32 tomorrow, and sunny will the condition improve by afternoon any melting tomorrow?

    • hippygoth

      32, Sunny, Road Treatments and Traffic usually do absolute wonders on roads. I’d still be a little more cautious on any shade covered untreated side roads, but if it’s warm (?) and sunny in the afternoon, treated roads and highways will probably be pretty close to normal for driving.

      H.

      • R-Dub

        I’m all the local agencies have plenty of salt in storage so roads will clear up quickly. With all the wind and only a light snowfall there will be plenty of bare spots on grassy areas too…a bare spot here, a mini-drift there…

    • The sun should come out by around noon and that will help, but it will be windy and cold with the sun angle low. If we only get one inch of snow it may not be that bad with the blowing and drifting, but we will likely have around 2″ or more, and with as much wind as we are expecting some roads will be covered for a while.

      • R-Dub

        Seriously, 2″ is going to leave roads covered for a while? C’mon, man. This isn’t Alabama. If we can’t clear 2″ off the roads with a year’s worth of salt in storage…

        • hippygoth

          I agree R-Dub, and last years only real snowfall (in Lenexa and OP anyway) was destroyed in a matter of hours. There was so much salt down a car with no tread would’ve had traction.

          If major roads are left in a crap state after 2″ snow, residents need to start demanding answers (and peoples jobs)

          I understand the blowing snow may suck, but this isn’t an epic snowstorm of biblical proportions here.

          H.

  • Jenn

    Morning all! I am new at this. If I did this right this map sure looks promising for some significant snow for those of us on the north side of KC. Wonder if this green bullseye will increase/shift?
    http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=EAX

  • k10k7

    Good Morning Gary,

    Is there still a chance for the track of this storm to slide 30-50 miles either direction or are the models starting to narrow this down at this point?

  • creekwood1990

    What you guys dont understand is a battle with road temps and rain. If we salt to early it will get washed away, wait till it freezes then we are too late. Looks like there is a window around 3-4 when the rain switches to snow, most likely when the salting will start. The wind chills will determine how fast the roads cool down, and if the sun does not come out today that will make it easier for the temps to fall faster. I think there will be black ice to deal with, watch the parking lots and especially the parking spaces. If the lots get treated it is hard to throw into the spaces. North side parking spaces up next to buildings will be the worst, they will freeze first. We are not too concerned with the snow in Lawrence, more concerned with a snap freeze with the moisture from the rain on the roads.

  • Hockeynut69

    Here is my prediction for tomorrow. One or all of the monring news shows will decide to air a half hour earlier due to the weather so those like me up at 4am can be informed. There will be someone doing a live shoot near a major interstate showing us the travel conditions, there will be someone at one of the salt and sand locations doing a live shot about supplies and the readiness of the plow drivers, there will be someone at the airport showing the screen of any flight delays, someone inevitably will have a ruler on hand to measure the depth of the snow. Possibly as early as tonight we will have the live shot from grocery stores and/or a hardware store (story about ice melt and shovel supplies). And last but not least…drum roll please… we will have our expert newscasters giving us our annual “How to drive in these road conditions list”. I bet my forecast is more accurate than anyone’s, lol. Be safe all!

  • melafinatu

    Why not bring Joe Lauria over from the dark side to replace George?

  • melafinatu

    BTW, I got tired of checking the “downplay” stations website, because they change web address all the time

  • melafinatu

    I predict 3″ at KCI

  • mgsports

    Shouldn’t mention somebody name from another Station on here.

  • f00dl3

    12z NAM gives us 1/2″ moisture to work with… that changes the game. Let’s see what GFS says.

  • f00dl3

    At most 1/3″ in the 06z and 00z runs.

    • kellyinkc

      hmmm, that does change the game. could be a surprise in the morning

    • sedsinkc

      It’s not all going to be snow with this storm, remember. Need to look at the 3 hour precip totals and see if we get heavier amounts during the snowfall window, rainfall window, or both compared to last model run. And the models can still be wrong. It will soon be time to use the RUC model for hourly updates.

  • KC Chiefs

    f00dl3
    Changing for 1/3″ to 1/2″. How much snow is that?

  • heavysnow

    Its time for one of these storms to hit me when its not supposed to hit me. I have been through many of forecasts were it was supposed to snow big and we got very little because the storm went north or south. Well, its time for this storm to move further south by about 75-100 miles.

  • f00dl3

    Would mean that the lowball of 1-2″ would be 2-3″ area wide. Maybe 3-6″ up north of the river in the 435 loop. Still want to see what the GFS says.

  • heavysnow

    Where is the energy right now that is going to form into Low?

  • jgbrazil

    Gary,

    I’ve been a reader for a long time, but rarely post. I just returned to KC after having been out of the country for two years, and I’m so excited to see some snow! I wanted to thank the entire 41 Weather Team for all the time and effort you put into running this blog.

    Also, yesterday there was some love going around to everyone who posts comments, especially those who have lots of weather knowledge…and I wanted to echo all that love! When stuff like this happens, reading your comments/theories make it all the more interesting.

    Here’s to hoping for a snow day tomorrow!

  • RickMckc

    I haven’t seen this morning’s GFS … but the 06z run ramped up the precip total to .75 at KC with a good .35 falling as snow.

    “http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kmci”

    As mentioned above, that’s about .25 of increase from last night’s run. Sure does look like snow outside!

  • fire508

    Well, GFS is up to hr 36, but it has done the opposite of the NAM went from 1/2 to 1/3. So Basically its up in the air right now. From experience though. GFS is better at long range and NAM does better for short term.. Only time will tell though…

  • f00dl3

    3-5″ across the metro? Starting to look that way!

  • brucer8774

    GAME OVER for this storm if you believe new GFS. Too far north, maybe that “other” station was right??

    The RAP model appears to have the storm a bit south so I dont know what to believe.

    GFS pisses me off…..wrong all year until we get something we want and then it is suddenly right and poops on us.

    • fire508

      The GFS is notorious for doing this. GFS is better for LONG RANGE and NAM/RAP are the best (in my opinion) for SHORT TERM. Basically with-in 24hr

    • No, this simply is not true. The GFS takes a perfect track of the upper low for our snowfall prediction map to verify. We will likely have a 2 to 3 inch KC metro area snowstorm with winds gusting to nearly 50 mph in the morning. The wind will be a major impact on the small snowstorm.

      Gary

      • fire508

        But if you compaire the GFS 12Z to GFS 6Z there is a big difference in QPF. Thats what I am saying. And compaire the 12z NAM to 6z it has a higher QPF

  • krislauram

    So here’s the MOST important question, and I hope you check in and answer!: When will the extreme winds die down so that my children can go out and PLAY in whatever snow we get???

    Thanks!

  • trailrider

    I just got back from Italy where we had 6″ the day I left. I’m hoping I brought it back with me!

  • brucer8774

    Agreed but our luck is gfs will be the right one…

  • stjoeattorney

    I will stick with my original 6 to 8 inches of snow for St. Joseph, Missouri. Our wind is bent around to the east northeast right now. It is 35°, relative humidity is 78% with the dew point of 28°. When it begins to precipitate the temperature will begin to fall and we should be near freezing extremely quick. The question is will we have a period of prolonged sleet or will we go over to all snow very fast.

    No one has really talked about the potential of prolonged accumulation of sleep with this event. However, 1 to 2 hours of sleet versus 1 to 2 hours snow can cut down accumulations of snow by 1 to 3 inches easily.

    I am disappointed about the disagreement in the models for the storm 25, 26, 27 December event. However, if you read the discussion on the National Weather Service website they not given up hope. Indicate that the trough may come out and bring some light precipitation and then later on in the week the main event may come that time. So all is not lost. Quite yet!!

    Be that as it may, for the first no event of the year, which hopefully will stay around until the 25th, Christmas Day, I think it will be a good one for us. Reminiscent of the winter of 07 – 08, 09 – 10, 10 – 11. If this ends up being a snowy winter it will be 4 of 6 vs.3 of the last 5 snowy winters. Highly unusual!

  • frigate

    Great prediction Hockeynut!!!!!

  • ChiefsFan

    Gary, when do you see the roads improving tomorrow, also any sun tomorrow? Thank you for your time!

  • f00dl3

    How likely are thunderstorms around 7 PM? I see there is a chance per the National Weather Service – but not much mention here. I want to go on a ~40 min bike ride but want to make sure the lighting (if any) isn’t going to be bad.

  • f00dl3

    nm you mentioned there is a chance as well answered my own question while typing!

  • Adam Penney

    Everyone welcome the GFS back to the snow party for next week! Lol

    Sheesh…

  • mattmaisch

    Well, like Adam just said, the GFS brings next week’s storm ALL THE WAY back to what it was before the last two runs. Unbelievable! Looks like a massive storm for our area once again! Let’s hope it sticks this time!

    Matt

  • NastyWeather

    Is this storm going to get a name? I know TWC was using names, but hadn’t seen anything.

  • ChiefsFan

    Any idea when you think the road conditions will improve tomorrow Gary

  • Athan

    When do you think the rain will start? Will I be able to go for a run around 3 this afternoon?

  • McCabe58

    Pure craziness Matt! Still a long ways away, that’s why I didn’t give up hope yesterday when it was gone after consistantly being on the maps multiple days in a row. Only time will tell I guess. So tonight’s/tomorrow’s storm is looking a bit more impressive now?

    • mattmaisch

      Crazy for sure.. I do think there are some indicators that tonight’s storm will be a bit more organized than previously thought. The fact that the models show the center of circulation closing off a bit sooner and a bit closer to KC has to be a good sign. I also like the fact that this is a strengthening storm as it passes by. If it strengthens a bit sooner, than logic suggests more snow. We shall see.

  • StormyWX

    Hey, I just thought I should point this out, but I’m occasionally having severe troubles viewing your channel on Dish Network with it occasionally freezing and producing a sort of static, pixle-like image. None of the other local channels I’ve flipped to have had this problem.

  • RickMckc

    For those interested, this is a great link to see the entire GFS 16-day run in raw numerical form for KCI.

    “http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kmci”

    Next week shows about 1.0″ of moisture beginning late in the day Christmas which, given the temps, would be 12-18 inches (IF it verifies – yes, it’s wishcasting but it’s based on mathematical science :)).

    Also, note at the bottom the forecast of 2.4″ total precip over the 16-day period. Obviously, there will be many changes between now and then but I’ve seen way too many of these with goose eggs, so it’s nice to see the model picking up on so much moisture in our future. Let’s hope and pray – we need it!

    Now, back to THIS event …

  • R-Dub

    Ok, this storm is now in range of the RAP (formerly the RUC)…and it looks like it doesn’t have us changing from rain to snow until 10z, which is 5 am central. Since it’s the RAP that 10z is the last map so don’t know what happens after that. But the take away is: not all of the moisture we’re getting will be in the form of snow. So those 0.5″ QPFs will not translate to 5″ of snow.

    • sedsinkc

      Good to have you on board w/ my earlier comment re rain and snow from this storm. Hard for this old salty dog to remember the new RAP name, being so used to RUC.

      • R-Dub

        I didn’t really remember it myself…went to the models page and said “Hey, where’s the RUC? O wait, this RAP must be it.”

        I was pretty surprised at how slowly the 0c line at 850 and the 540 thickness line were moving…

  • R-Dub

    Actually I think that’s 4 am central, not 5. Getting confused with standard vs daylight.

  • Green Acres

    Hello All, new to the blog. I know nothing about meteorology and willfully admit it. Looking at the NWS Upper Mississippi Valley Radar I see a cold front pushing through Central North Dakota. I have one question. What are the chances that this front would “push” the low tracking by the KC area to a more southerly track thus moving the heavier snows just a bit further south?

  • JohnNCWX

    As previously stated, it is physically impossible for this storm to be related to Sandy in any way, shape, or form. Sandy came from the tropics, this storm is originating from the midlatitude westerlies, coming from the complete opposite direction storms of tropical origion form. To say this is related is smacking physics in the face, completely disregarding newton’s law, and the coriolis effect.

    That being said-a very nice storm indeed!

    • He is referring to the storm that merged with Sandy to create the ‘superstorm’. Not Hurricane Sandy.

    • sedsinkc

      Sandy was not a pure tropical entity when it hit New Jersey. It was a hurricane that got absorbed into an intense, negatively tilted trough that developed in the westerlies across the eastern United States. It was this trough and the blocking Greenland high that caused Sandy to make its historic left hook into New Jersey.

      • sedsinkc

        Should say, “extremely negatively tilted”

      • JohnNCWX

        That’s a rather roundabout assessment that has little to do with Sandy…and a four corners low for that matter.

        • sedsinkc

          I was responding to your argument that Sandy was not related to the LRC because you said it was a tropical system and not a westerlies system. I countered that the hybrid Sandy storm was a product of a tropical system and a westerlies system. That’s the point I was making. I’m not taking sides on whether the LRC predicted this storm and that it’s somehow related to the Sandy hybrid storm. I have doubts about the veracity of the LRC at times.

        • Kcchamps

          “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F19%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=018&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M”

    • mattmaisch

      My interpretation of any relation that exists between the two systems comes from a relationship between this storm and the east coast storm that absorbed the tropical system that was Sandy, not Sandy herself.

      There is no correlation being drawn between this storm and Sandy, but rather the storm that merged with Sandy to produce the Superstorm. Again though, this is just my interpretation.

      Matt

  • Kole Christian

    SNOW LOVER’S RREJOICE!!! The gfs brought back the fantasy storm! “http://wxmaps.org/pix/mcigfs.png”

  • f00dl3

    Anyone notice it’s running about 5 degrees below what it was forecasted to be right now? Wonder if that will play any part in the snow turnover tonight?

  • sedsinkc

    Swath of blizzard warnings now continuous from Colorado to Wisconsin, but NE KS and NW MO still in Winter Storm Warnings.

  • kellyinkc

    getting sprinkled on in Raytown already

  • sedsinkc

    It is 40 degrees at my house in KC North right now. The storm is just starting. We are in the part of the storm where warm air is forced north ahead of the low pressure center. This is known as warm air advection. With the onset of rain, after an initial small temperature drop due to some evaporative cooling, we will probably warm very slowly the rest of the day and into the evening until the low pressure center passes to our south and cold air advection begins. We may even have a thunderstorm in the area this evening. BUT IF we don’t warm the rest of the day to near 45 it would be an indication the storm is taking a more southerly track than anticipated and would be an excellent sign for KC snow lovers. IF. Watch how the dewpoint changes the rest of the day.

    • sedsinkc

      When the dewpoint is rising over time, it will mean we are in the warm air advection regime. Once the temperature and dewpoint converge, the rising dewpoint will force the temperature to rise with it.

      • R-Dub

        We’ve been getting some virga which may be keeping the surface temps from rising as quickly.

        But either way, it’s not really a sign of what will be happening after midnight tonight. That has a lot more to do with warm air or cold air advection than with noon temperatures the day before.

        Jargon alert: advection is a fancy term for “a different airmass moving in”

  • kellyinkc

    “http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USNE0353″

    Radar is lighting up.

  • Hockeynut69

    Getting some light rain just west of Liberty. Oh and now there are apps out there to tell us what we need to know about safe driving tips and how to prepare for winter weather. Guess that could put some field reporters out of a job now. Darn technology, lol.

  • stjoeattorney

    TIME TO WATCH THE SATELITE MOVIE AND SEE WHERE IT HAS BEEN AND HOW IT IS MOVING

  • mattmaisch

    Good news on next week’s storm. Euro seems to be back on board as well. Has a little different look to it than the GFS, but the point is, it’s back on both models. Both look fairly similar for this far out as well. Stay tuned.

  • kellyinkc

    temp clicked up to 40 now.

  • RickMckc

    I am really enjoying all the comments about weather today. Way to go everyone!

  • kellyinkc

    just for fun.
    “http://www.boxonastick.com/” LOL
    Whatever form of precep I will take it.

  • StormyWX

    Hey is there any chance that you can move the weather bug on? I just turned on the TV again it’s a third of the way down the screen…seems awfully low to me.

  • kettle corn

    I love the blog in the winter! Must say I miss the drama of the old days: )

  • UpNorth

    OK, I’m confused, when I look at the radar, it appears the storm is moving north and east, out of the area?? Why is it doing that?

  • Adam Penney

    Yep, as Matt alluded too, we can welcome back the Euro along with the GFS to the Winter Storm party next week!

  • mukustink

    Like I said yesterday this is going north. Looking at Sat you can see it tracking north. We MAY get a dusting in the immediate metro. Looks like St. Joe will get it again. Oh well maybe next week we may get something. Snow lovers will have their heart broken with this one. Nothing to see here move on…

  • ChiefsFan

    No your wrong Mukustink, it’s going south, nw misouri and the metro will get hit

  • mukustink

    I guess time will tell. If I’m wrong I will be on here admitting I was wrong unlike some who hide for days :)

  • f00dl3

    If you look at surface maps the surface low looks to be over west central Kansas, not over Texas like the models are showing. Weird.

  • Unstay_Bill

    I think maybe your right f00dls. The models do appear to have initialized the low a little farther south than it actually is. I’m thinking this may have a negative effect on our snow totals.

  • ChiefsFan

    I’m not so sure guys, Gary where currently is the surface low at?

  • weatherbro

    Yeah not looking good. Just look at the radar.

  • ChiefsFan

    I think the low is in Texas just below the Oklahoma pan handle, and still in it transformation phase, just my guess

  • f00dl3

    Based on surface observations, right now it’s just north of Dodge City, KS. Winds from stations around that point are counter-clockwise. “http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/displaySfc.php?region=ict&endDate=20121219&endTime=-1&duration=5″

  • Unstay_Bill

    Not in Texas “http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/displaySfc.php?region=ict&endDate=20110604&endTime=-1&duration=0″

  • Kcchamps

    the latest NAM looks good for SNOW! :)

    • Yes, it does. This storm is likely going to intensify as it approaches. It could be a blizzard in the morning. I will update the blog later this afternoon. And, the European model is back to somewhat of a storm around Christmas as well. A lot to discuss.

  • f00dl3

    Oddly enough based on visible satellite and surface observations with the low kicking out about 50 miles north and still digging at this time, it is missing it’s opportunity to pass just to our south. Unless it rapidly lifts north after it reaches it’s furthest south digging point, it may track closer to I-44 instead. This would actually be more favorable for snow for us.

  • lsx347

    looks to me like it’s northwest of Amarillo in the panhandle. champs get some snow maps up to get these haters out of here

  • fire508

    Latest NAM as us in snow from hr 15 roughly to 24 (hasn’t updated past hr 24 yet.) with higher qpf.

  • McCabe58

    ^^^ hahaha thank you!

  • sedsinkc

    My daughter arrives from Seattle tonight, supposed to be around 9 p.m. She’s connecting in Denver so hope the snow there is wrapped up and flight delays out of DEN are not bad late today. Then she leaves here on Dec. 26, just in time for our next possible winter weather event. Ugh.

  • Kcchamps

    It is still 39degrees here in Independence

  • weather111

    I say 3 inches at KCI 2.5 in downtown 3.5 in Lawrence and 4.5 in Topeka

  • f00dl3

    With 1/2 – 3/4″ moisture to work with as the NAM would indicate, and if the storm dives south and tracks along I-44 – wouldn’t take much to put the metro in a 4-6″ snow band. Especially if we don’t get much warm air advection – and our temperatures are struggling to raise. It’s still 39 at KCI and 41 at Gardner IXD. If we cool off faster, storm tracks further south given interesting digging going on right now – this is going to be a ride!

  • ChiefsFan

    It will Probably be 3-6 for metro kc

  • mattmaisch

    Late to the table on this one, but yes, as has been stated, this particular run of the NAM is clearly the most potent one we have seen for the metro. Tomorrow morning looks pretty rough..

    Matt

  • wags

    From the NWS glossary.

    Blizzard (abbrev. BLZD)- A blizzard means that the following conditions are expected to prevail for a period of 3 hours or longer:

    Sustained wind or frequent gusts to 35 miles an hour or greater; and Considerable falling and/or blowing snow (i.e., reducing visibility frequently to less than ¼ mile)

  • MikeL

    Here in SW Topeka the temp has been stuck at 42.6F for a couple of hours now with a gentle E-ENE wind. And the 18z NAM was the most impressive for our area so far.

    After last year’s non-winter and the on-going drought it’s fun to be able to see some exciting weather again!

  • FenderBender

    Those of you concerned about how bad the radar and its movement looks right now, yes, that feature will stay to the north and miss us. But look at the circulation toward the Texas panhandle and New Mexico. That’s the feature that will give us our snow if the low continues to mature. And that won’t be until well after midnight.

    Here’s something cool I discovered by accident. If you go to the NWS home page, click on Arizona, and then on the observations tab, you get a really cool feature. Just zoom out and slide it over to the area you’re interested in, and click on the features you want to see. You can also overlay the radar.

    Next week’s fantasy storm? Not worth talking about yet. I remember the models blinked the blizzard of 09 on and off before the actual event. But its fun to watch.

  • hoeperk2

    Extreme NW Missouri now under Blizzard Warning from 6pm till noon.

  • nerd in lansing

    ETA model looks good for snow in leavenworth county 4in of it!

    http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_48HR.gif

  • R-Dub

    I would be looking at the RAP right now instead of an off-hour run of the NAM. Or any run, really.

    • Weatherman Kumke

      exactly!

    • sedsinkc

      And the RAP has this thing taking a less favorable track. We would still get snow, but more like 1 to 2 inches. When I looked at the new, off-hour NAM (18z) it looked to me like the model was initializing too far south from what current data show, which makes me cautious about getting too excited about more than 2 inches of snow, although if the system digs some more maybe there’s still hope. Drat these deformation band snowstorms, the bane of many a forecast.

  • Cacti51

    Just pulled my new snowblower out of its box….after purchasing it 16 months ago! Maybe I will finally get to use it!
    Bring on the SNOW!!

  • RickMckc

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ruc/18zrucptype012.gif

    RAP precip type at midnight. This is from the 18z run.

  • RickMckc

    “http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ruc/18zrucptype012.gif”

    FWIW … RAP precip type at midnight. This is from the 18z run.

  • mattmaisch

    One subtle note an interest. The NWS just extended the southern boundary of the Winter Weather Advisory by a row of counties to the south. Not a bad sign for KC.

  • RickMckc

    NWS grid increased forecast snow total at my location (I-29/64th) from 2.0 to 2.3. Not huge but I like the trend.

  • sedsinkc

    20z RAP looks a little better for KC snow totals.

  • kettle corn

    Cmon snow! Make it down here!

  • f00dl3

    I never could understand how the RAP works – I use several sites (TwisterData) and the NCEP site, as well as UCAR – but none of those sites show a winter only mode, and with TwisterData it rarely shows anyting more than 4 hours out. NCEP shows hourly QPF but no cumulative QPF. UCAR mixes both but without something showing the 540 line or transition line, it’s hard to understand.

  • Skylar

    My location (JoCo Executive) has been changed a couple times from 1.5″ to 2.3″ in the last two hours; it also calls for Heavy Snow tomorrow. The clouds are also getting pretty gray here, the virga must be getting heavier. xD

  • weatherman brad

    topeka kansas has now been upgraded from a winter weather advisory to a winter storm warning. Its not including Lawrence yet.

    Brad

  • mattmaisch

    Well the GFS has some nice features. The low closes off right on top of our area. QPF is higher, but not as aggressive as the NAM. Still seems as though more snow is becoming more likely as more time passes.

    Matt

  • MikeL

    Topeka NWS is upgrading Shawnee and Jefferson counties and several other counties to the west to a WSW.

  • sedsinkc

    Could this system be so dynamic as KC gets into the comma head around 3 a.m. that thundersleet/snow is possible?

  • sedsinkc

    Latest GFS run has surface low tomorrow at 9 a.m. in west-central IL at 988 millibars, 29.17 inches. Between that and a 1040 mb high over the Rockies, no wonder the winds will be something to reckon with here.

  • Skylar

    New AFD is pretty good if you like snow. :D Slight chance the warning could be extended southward, and there is more reason for the storm next week to materialize over our area than not.

  • sedsinkKC NWS says chance of thunder in the night

  • RickMckc

    NWS for my location in the Northland is now up to 2.7 from 2.0 this AM.

    This is better than the stock market.

  • nerd in lansing

    is it just me or is the storm going further south than expected?

  • Weatherman Kumke

    Thundersnow is now possible as well as higher totals overall. Put down 4 inches back on Sunday for Olathe. Lets go

  • brucer8774

    Low is in NM / TX. GOOD spot. In line with Rap model. Dig baby Dig!!!

  • FenderBender

    We only need one inch to make my Christmas lights look real pretty.

  • nerd in lansing

    Dont want to sound alarmist but if this storm keeps digging the WSW should be shifted south a county or two

  • doesnt make sense, NWS forecast for Olathe calls for ‘heavy snow’ both later tonite and tomorrow, yet only 2 inch total accumulation…

    • RickMckc

      Light, moderate and heavy are more descriptors of the intensity of precip rather than total amount. It can snow lightly for 12 hours or heavily for 4 hours and in both cases wind up with a foot of snow. For a snow to be described as heavy requires visibility of less than a quarter mile, I believe.

  • smiley10

    Wow, I’m completely lost when people start talking about all the different models…RAP, AFD, ETA…brain freeze!

  • rwalther

    Remember the forecast is not perfect, they may call for 2″ and you could get 4″ just depends where the snow is the heaviest and how long it last for…

  • Kole Christian

    Fenderbender,

    You are right. I remember the 09 Christmas blizard blinking like this one. I want to see what the models will say once this storm passes tonight. It will be closer and storms like the one tonight tend to mess with longer range models, which could be why our Christmas fantasy storms keeps teasing us. If tomorrow evening shows us a big storm then I would be we will atleast get a good storm out of it.

  • McCabe58

    Lillis I was thinking the same thing, because its showing that for my location too… I’m thinking they will shift those wsw south!

  • RickMckc

    Hey Weatherman Brad … looks like you might be a winner!

  • Kole Christian

    Also, what’s the record for comments on one blog post? I have 354 stuck in my mind. I think it was for one of the blogs discussing the February Blizard we had in’11.

  • Skylar

    18z GFS also looking pretty good for next week:

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusupper.php?run=2012121918&var=HGT&lev=500mb&hour=159″

    • Skylar

      It takes a weird path along the KC/OK border to Joplin then shifts almost due north and stalls over KC for several frames before slowing shifting off to the NE. Lol at least it’s still showing up! :D

  • mukustink

    Loks lik the contest may end. This is digging deeper and slowing down more then past models had predicted. I am thinking 2-4 is a safe amount for the immediate metro. We will know in 18 hours or so. Could still be snowing at noon time tomorrow if it slows down further.

    • Kole Christian

      So your prediction is a little shaky right now. I’m sticking with 2-3 for Parkville, but keep in mind the Plaza probably won get as much as us here in the Northland.

  • f00dl3

    Ok – I see 2 circulations on surface maps. One on the KS/OK border south of Pratt, KS; and another northwest of Elk City, OK.

  • Kole Christian

    If we get 2 inches out of this I’m happy. I really want to see what next weeks storm might bring to our area.

  • nerd in lansing

    I’ll go out on a limb and say lansing will get 6in, i remember that 2010-2011 had many storms that were “nowcasted” one was quite infamous with the NWS saying 1-3in, and ugrading it to 4-6 at noon, and finally a WSW in the evening 6-8in. I think it will happen again. The storm and the NWS are in a staring match the NWS just doesnt want to blink first.

  • Farmgirl

    Oh goody! NWS lowered the wind gusts from 45 MPH to 44 MPH for Kansas counties to the south. Gee, I feel so much better now. :)

  • yea makes one wonder if the NWS is playing it safe right now, even though they are now saying ‘heavy snow at times’ they haven’t upped the totals really, at least not yet..but with up to 50MPH winds whatever we get will sure reduce visability!

  • rwalther

    I am going out on a limb and saying between I-435 and I-35 NW of Liberty, MO, we will probably get between 3-5″. Safe bet based on the data I have seen.

  • mattmaisch

    New blog.

  • ok NWS just upped Olathe to 3 inches..and threw sleet bk into the equation..thundersnow or thundersleet. Looks like no one is sure what this one is gonna do. All I know is it feels like snow out there and is COLD…just 8 days aago I was in Maui Im ready to go back! Tho the snow is pretty

  • Weatherman Kumke

    CRENNEL AND PIOLI ARE FIRED. MARRY CHRISTMAS!