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A Storm Is Approaching & What Do You Think Were The Top Weather Events Of 2018

Good morning bloggers,

We hope everyone had a great Christmas.  New Years Day is now less than a week away.  There is a lot to track in our exciting weather pattern as the year comes to a close.  Before we get started, I have this question:  What were the top five weather events of 2018 in Kansas City?  Let me know what you remember, and I will work on a list for next Monday night on New Year’s Eve.

Storm System Round One:

Screen Shot 2018-12-26 at 7.43.02 AM

A nice cold area of rain has made into Kansas City this morning.  A few heavier downpours can be seen in the yellow and orange areas. This band of rain will lift north before noon, and then we will wait on a larger more wide spread area tonight. There may even be a few thunderstorms tonight.

Surface Forecast Valid tonight at midnight:

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Look at this surface forecast valid tonight at midnight.  A strong surface low with a 998 mb pressure at its center will be located over southwestern Kansas.  Imagine this pattern during the spring with warmer air available.  This would be a developing severe weather set-up, and we have had a few of these since this years LRC began.  It isn’t spring, however, and even though there may be f ew severe thunderstorms over the deep south, this storm will produce snow, rain, and wind as it tracks across the plains.  As this system moves by later on Thursday, colder air will blast south.  The Arctic air is still being held way up to the north.

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That is still a very large Arctic Air mass and we are monitoring it closely.  Enough cold air will blast in behind this storm system for a chance of snow this weekend. We are down to only one model that has snow on Saturday, and this model has been consistent. It still depends on a wave, an upper level storm, that will produce snow only if it is as organized as this FV3 GFS model shows:

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The other models are just slightly weaker with this system. and as a result snow does not form.  I am still holding out hope for a dusting to 2″ system, as this is directly related to the storm that ended our snowflake contest at KSHB in November.  Will it be slightly weaker and dry, or slightly stronger and snowy?

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Have a great Wednesday, and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Let’s share in this weather experience by joining in the conversation on the Weather2020 blog as we all learn more about this complex hobby known as weather.

Gary

 

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