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A Storm Hits West Coast & Approaches The Plains

Good morning bloggers,

Los Angeles is getting some heavy rain today, and this is a good sign for their winter. It is a functional storm that is hitting them now.  If it was going to be an extremely dry winter out there, they would not be getting hit by a storm of this strength.  Here are the impacts and forecast from the NWS in Oxnard, CA:

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This storm heading into California is centered north of San Francisco this morning, and the second system is organizing way offshore.  These two systems are also going to have impacts on other parts of the United States including the KC region:

Screen Shot 2018-11-29 at 7.52.56 AM

3This first storm is going to rip out into the plains on Friday into early Saturday, with the second one coming  into the west coast.  There is a split flow over the eastern Pacific Ocean.  A northern stream is located over the northern territories of Canada, if you look closely. And, the southern stream is quite active with our storm systems cycling through this southern branch.  The first system will be approaching the plains Friday and spinning into an upper level low over northern Kansas and Nebraska, possibly Iowa and Missouri Friday night and Saturday.  What happens with the strength and development of this first storm will have impacts on how the second storm affects our region.  The models have all had some strength of snowfall in our region even in KC by Sunday night or Monday with amounts varying from a few flakes on some models to 8″ of snow on others (Canadian Model).  Now, the solutions should come more in line today, so I am waiting on seeing how these trend as confidence is quite low for our area at the moment.

Let’s concentrate on this first storm:

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A strong surface low will be moving out into the plains on Saturday morning.  Imagine this storm in the spring;  there would be a significant severe weather risk.  Oh, wait a second, take a look at this December risk on the day 2 outlook from the SPC (Storm Prediction Center):

day2otlk_0700

Dew points will be surging north.  And, I am talking high dew points, lots of moisture for this time of the year:

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This GFS model dew point projection shows 50°+ dew points may make it as far north as KC early Saturday morning. That would push temperatures up into the 50s later tomorrow night, and there is a chance of thunderstorms near Kansas City as well.

A lot to discuss today in this rather strange and interesting weather pattern.  Remember, every LRC is unique, and we are experiencing a weather pattern that has never happened before. Now, let’s see how this all lines up.

Sporting KC has a big playoff game out at Children’s Mercy Park tonight.  Go Sporting KC!  Have a great day everyone, and thank you for participating and sharing in this weather experience. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.  Sunny, my dog, is shaking her head, and I am taking her to the vet this morning, so I will check in soon.

Gary

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