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A Storm Forms With Rain And Snow Likely

Good morning bloggers,

Who is ready for some more snow?  Did you know it has now snowed on 20 days so far this season?  In Kansas City, this season began with the earliest measurable snow ever recorded on October 14th.  Here are the snowfalls from just a trace amount indicated by the T:

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There have been ten days with measurable snowfall already, and today is likely going to make it 11, and tomorrow may be the 12th date with measurable snow as it may last past midnight.  Why? Because we have this storm system developing right now:

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The trend has been for this system to evolve and track a bit farther south, and evolve into a splitting upper level storm. One part may form and spin north into Nebraska and Iowa and weaken, and a new disturbance will likely break off and redevelop tracking just south of KC. This second disturbance is the one to watch for increasing snow potential tonight. If it doesn’t quite separate and break off, then the chance of accumulation farther south will be less.  I favor the breaking off and strengthening system as that is what happened in this part of the pattern in the last LRC cycle.  Kansas City only had around 1/2″ of snow out of that system, and it developed and intensified right over the city. It was just a fast moving weak system, and this one looks slightly stronger than that one. here i one possible solution for around 10 PM tonight:

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Notice the little dry area east of KC.  This is likely being caused by “the dry slot” which may form.  If this dry slot develops, it may be hard to recover and pull the snow farther south, unless the storm tracks farther south, which has been the trend.

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I am trying to show you what may happen tonight.  Notice the upper low over southern Iowa.  If this is stronger, then the dry slot will take over and we will get just a dusting. If that northern system weakens, and the southern system strengthens, even just a little bit more than this RUC model shows, then 2 to 3 inches will be possible.  As a result I am showing this snowfall potential forecast at the moment, and we will look for these features tonight. I will point them out on 41 Action News, IF I can find them on the satellite or radar images:

Snow

These our the numbers I adjusted showing aggressive totals for this situation.  Let’s see what happens:

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Kansas City Weather Time-line:

  • Today:  Cloudy with a 100% chance of rain developing later in the day.  South winds at 15-30 mph will warm temperatures into the 40s.
  • 4 PM – 7 PM: The wind will shift to the northwest and temperatures will drop to near or below 32 degrees by the end of the rush hour. A rain/sleet/freezing rain/snow changeover line will likely develop and move across the KC metro area.
  • 7 PM – 4 AM:  The precipitation will change to snow and then end. One period of heavy snow is possible. Accumulations of a dusting to 3″ is likely near KC.  Now, remember this means a dusting to 1/2″ is possible, and if it is better organized some spots may get higher amounts.  Temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 20s with slick and hazardous conditions developing
  • Wednesday:  Becoming mostly sunny and cold.  The wind will shift to the southwest and be gusty up to 25 mph leading to cold wind chills near 10 degrees. High:  29°

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  This is another LRC bullseye to hit this week.  Let us know if you have any questions or comments and let’s discuss the new data on the Weather2020 blog. Here is the link:  The Weather2020 Blog

Have a great day!

Gary

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