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A Storm Comes Into The West & Takes Aim On KC

Good morning bloggers,

The Kansas City Chiefs are out west near the fire ravaged Napa Valley.  Just north of Oakland is where this fire disaster that has claimed 42 lives is beginning to get under control.  Some rain would help, and take a look at the forecast for midnight after the Chiefs vs. Raiders game will be long over:

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This storm coming into the west will begin producing some snow around Lake Tahoe, and it has been completely dry this month until this system moves in tonight.

12z & 18z GFS rainfall forecast totals from Wednesday:

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The map above shows the rainfall forecast from yesterday mornings GFS model, and this one below is from the 1 PM model run (18z)):

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The axis of the heavy rain forecast shifted north and west. Now, did this trend continue?  The European Model has not had nearly as much rain, until now:

Screen Shot 2017-10-19 at 6.54.34 AM

So, now we have some consistence in the rainfall forecast, and look at the wet conditions across the Pacific northwest, and it does dip down a bit into California.

1The storm system that will be responsible is coming into the west coast tonight.  This energy will then carve out a trough as it approaches the plains states. And, then look at all of that energy coming across the Pacific Ocean. This is becoming an increasing factor for next week with the models all over the place on what is forecast to happen next.  This map is showing the 500 mb flow, around 18,000 feet up as described a few days ago. This level of the atmosphere shows the cycling weather pattern the best.  The energy coming into North American next week is forecast to develop a rather deep trough in the east, but then it is also forecast to lift out fairly rapidly, and then get replaced by something like this next map below:

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This map shows a very deep trough just west of Kansas City on Halloween.  This is quite fascinating to watch our weather pattern evolve. The massive change in the pattern happened two weeks ago, and now we are experiencing the evolution of the pattern that we will be experiencing during the next year. This deeper trough over the plains has already shown signs that it may very well be a big feature this year in these first two weeks. I will attempt making a video and posting it later to showcase how this may “fit” this new and unique pattern.  This would be “very good” for us weather enthusiasts that live near Kansas City. 5

Today will be another great day in Kansas City. Let’s track the models today and we can continue this discussion in the comments section.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day and sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the cycling weather pattern (LRC).  Go to the blog at Weather2020 and join in the conversation.

Gary

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