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A Smattering of Rain

Good Sunday bloggers,

We finally have a term for the rainfall pattern this spring and summer, a “smattering.” Before we take a look at the data for the one rain chance during the next 7 days, let’s look at some 2018 rainfall totals from around the area.

Here is the official rainfall total for Kansas City. It is taken at KCI and is most misleading. It shows that we are about 4″ below average rainfall. This is due to a freakish 3.29″ rain event on July 18th. A thin, small band of very heavy downpours stalled right over southern Platte county. There are a few locations around KC with this type of rainfall total, especially in Overland Park. Otherwise, most locations are not even close. See below.

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Olathe is 11″ below average.

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St. Joseph is getting close to a foot below average for the year with a little over 11″ of rain.

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Lawrence is also getting close to a foot below average rainfall.

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What we need to get rid of the drought is 5″-10″ of rain over a few weeks in all locations. What is in the forecast for this week, is not that.

SUNDAY: Today will be hot and humid with a breeze to help a bit. The front that will bring our next rain chance is sitting in Nebraska.

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SUNDAY NIGHT: Thunderstorms will light up in to a widespread event across Nebraska and Iowa where there is no drought at all. Our area will stay dry and mild with lows mostly in the 70s.

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MONDAY: The thunderstorms along I-80 will track east as the cold front sags south. We will have another hot and dry day with highs 95°-100°.

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MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING: The front will be drifting south across the area as disturbances move in from the west. This will create areas of rain and thunderstorms, but not all locations will see decent rain. Yes, here we go again.

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TUESDAY AFTERNOON: If you do not get the rain, at least all locations will see highs in the low to mid 80s. Some locations may stay in the 70s.

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RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY: This data has the heaviest rain along I-70 and across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. The location of the heavier rain could end up anywhere, meaning 50-100 miles farther north or south. It depends on the exact track of the thunderstorms. This is the problem. Instead of having to say the heaviest rain could end up anywhere, it needs to be EVERYWHERE! Could this set up bring a widespread rain event? Sure, there are some models doing that. But, we are very hesitant to go for a widespread event until we see exactly how this is going to evolve. Especially, since we have seen zero widespread rain events this spring and summer.

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Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

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