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A severe weather risk approaches

Good morning bloggers,

The severe weather risk will be increasing Sunday!

Weather Forecast Timeline:

  • Today: Cloudy this morning with some sunshine breaking out and partly cloudy later today. We are expecting a dry day with south winds 5-15 mph.  High:  79°
  • Saturday:  Mostly cloudy early in the morning, then very humid and warm.  High:  86°
  • Sunday:  Dry most of the day. A risk of severe thunderstorms during the evening or at night.  High:  84°

Did you see the cumulonimbus cloud as the sun was beginning to set tonight?  This thunderstorm was about to dissipate near I-35 north of Cameron, MO:

CB-MAY-16TH-CENTURY

I pointed at the penetrating top, which is often called an “overshooting top”, which is a dome-like protrusion that shoots through the cumulonimbus anvil cloud.  This is caused by a strong updraft. This updraft pushes the building cumulonimbus cloud through the previous anvil that had spread out from another previously strong updraft.   Now, will we see stronger versions of these thunderstorms later this weekend?

A strong wave of energy will be ripping out into the plains states on Sunday afternoon and evening and we are concerned that all of the conditions may be coming together for our most serious severe weather risk in a very long time, over a year for sure.  We should all pay close attention to these late weekend developments. Here is one of the surface forecast solutions valid Sunday evening:

1

The models have been all over the place with varying solutions of the late weekend into early next week weather pattern………I am waiting on one more model run before I finish this blog entry….

New Data Update 11 AM:  The morning data is still coming in and at first glance there is still no clear cut solution, which is typical of a storm of this type. We know that the conditions for severe weather will be coming together on Sunday and Monday across our area. And, the GFS is somewhat impressive on Kansas City being one of the target areas. The uncertainties lie on the timing of thunderstorms and where they will be located.  The GFS model just came out with a strong band of thunderstorms forecast early Sunday morning and then a long wait until regeneration during the late afternoon or evening to our west.  The NAM has it’s own solution, but has some similarities.  We will learn more about this unique set-up every few hours and we will keep you updated on 41 Action News.

day3prob_0730There is a slight risk for Sunday and the Storm Prediction Center has some stronger wording for our area.  You can click on the map on the left for a larger view.  From the SPC: “Forecast soundings at 00z/Mon (7 PM Sunday) from Kansas City south southwestward to Tulsa and Oklahoma City show MLCAPE values of 2500 to 3500 J/KG with 0-6 KM shear in the 45 to 55 kt range.  A mid-level jet is forecast to move through the base of the upper level trough helping to increase deep layer shear profiles as the event unfolds.  This along with steep development.  Large hail including hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant super cells. In addition…a low-level jet is forecast to intensify early Sunday evening which should create low-level shear profiles favorable for tornadoes.  A few strong tornadoes may also occur”

The conditions will be coming together, but there are still uncertainties and we will go over the latest data on 41 Action News today and tonight.

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Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog. Let us know if you have any questions/comments and have a great weekend. Kalee Dionne will be writing her first Action Weather Blog entry in the morning.  Be sure to watch 41 Action News, and we’ll keep you advised.

Gary

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43 comments to A severe weather risk approaches

  • mgsports

    Sunday, May 19

    Severe weather outbreak. Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in east SD, east NE, east half KS,
    central OK, northwest MO, west and central IA, south half MN. TOR:CON – 5 north-central OK,
    south-central KS; 4 east NE, west IA; 3 to 4 rest of above area.

    TORCON

    IA west – 4

    IA central – 3

    KS east half – 5 We are on the KS side of metro better watch out and we will have some Chasers on 69/I-35/435/K-10/K-7 so on highway

    MN south half – 3

    MO northwest – 4 to 5 KC area

    NE east – 4

    OK central – 5

    SD East – 3

    Other areas – less than 2

    Monday, May 20

    Severe weather outbreak continues. Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in central and south MN, WI, lower MI, east IA, north and west-central IL, northeast through southwest MO, southeast KS, central and northeast OK, and possibly extreme southeast ND and extreme northeast SD. TORCON – 5 central OK; 5 – east IA, northwest IL.

    TORCON

    IA east – 5

    IL northwest – 5

    IL northeast, west-central – 4

    KS southeast – 4 to 5

    MI lower peninsula – 3

    MN central – 3

    MN south – 4

    MO northeast to southwest – 4 to 5 near KC area

    ND extreme southeast – 2

    OK central, northeast – 5

    SD extreme northeast – 2

    WI north – 3

    WI south – 4

    Other areas – less than 2

  • Drought Miser

    I say Saturdays nights storms lull the atmosphere into a nice stable non severe environment.

  • f00dl3

    Gary doesn’t look too sold to me quite yet – only 40% on the 7 day for SUN and 50% for MON – was 60% back on WED but he lowered it. Thought you were sure we’d get it based on the LRC? Either way – I think it’s safe to say that regardless of the degree of instability present we will get thunder overnight Sunday into Monday unless this thing completely blows over us.

    • I am sure there will be strong to severe thunderstorms around, but I am uncertain as to how wide spread they will be. We suddenly do need some rain, so I hope some non severe thunderstorms can move through to provide us some moisture.

      We will update the forecast soon.

      Gary

  • LibertyJeff

    Definitely been a while since we’ve had a set-up like this. Even if it’s not widespread I don’t recall preparing mentally for something like this in 2 years. Kind of like dusting the cobwebs and making sure my brain is in gear!

  • This is the forecast soundings for the K.C.metro via the 12Z NAM sunday afternoon.http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/NAM_12_057_38.95;-94.58.gif An EHI level from 3-5 will exist from the Tulsa area,north to the Mo. Ia. border. Tornado threat looks strong in this zone…Signed, Kevin Have a good 1 :)

  • better_than_you

    I love being right. See my post from about 3 weeks ago where I basically predicted this (or, my friend in Alabama did, actually). Who wants to be the first to apologize? His timing was off by 2 days, but still. EVERYBODY on here told me how dumb I was. This is why my handle is what it is. It’s fun being smart.

    On a serious note, though, he said this storm is coming together just like he thought and that we are in for big trouble this weekend. He couldn’t stress enough how serious this is. We are in “the bullseye of the bullseye” (his words). I jokingly said “storm of the century, huh?” and he said “not quite, but there is definitely going to be some extensive damage.” Crap. Gonna be an interesting few days. Stock up.

  • bob osoborne

    Yet, despite the bullish SPC, Gary isn’t sure and the little animal station isn’t sure of the potential for the “big set up.” Be prepared, forget the stupid Torcon which is rarely accurate, and assume we’ll get a thunderstorm but not necessarily a tornadic one.

  • John Sickels

    What we know: Someone in the plains and midwest will get whacked hard on Sunday and/or Monday. All modes of severe are possible, from large hail to high winds to tornadoes, possibly significant tornadoes if things play out just right. Anyone living from the northern reaches of Texas through Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, and Iowa needs to pay attention to the weather this weekend.

    What we don’t know: where the worst will be. Mesoscale processes will likely determine much of that, and it is just too soon to know. If we do get a round of storms around here Sunday morning, that could lay down all kinds of outflow boundaries that could interact with the next round Sunday evening and increase the risk of significant damage.

    What we should do: No need to panic, but precautions are wise. Stay abreast of the weather. Perhaps make sure your car is gassed up and your cellphone charged up. Check your weather radio batteries. Even small precautions can make a big difference.

    Ultimately everything has to happen just right for a serious outbreak to occur. A “just right” set-up is possible this weekend, but not a slam dunk.

  • weatherman brad

    Gary,

    a friend of mine is having a graduation party un Sunday between 11:30am and 1:30pm. is it going to be pretty nasty around that time or not.

    brad

    • Hey Little Buddy.I thought you are a forecaster.Remember hurricane Isaac,and Sandy? This forecast should be a piece-of-cake for you.

    • blueskies

      Wow. My confidence in Weatherman Brad is shaken. A junior at KU majoring in Met should know what the weather will be in less than 48 hours….. unless he isn’t a junior at KU majoring in Met. Makes me wonder.

  • yewtrees

    NWS: Hodographs show a good amount of curvature by the afternoon (Sunday) and this is increased during the evening as the low level jet restrengthens overhead. Storms will likely initiate over eastern Kansas during the afternoon hours and become supercells. As winds veer into the evening and overnight hours storms should organize into more of a line/ convective complex. Large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible with the initial storms before the convective mode changes and damaging winds becomes the primary concern.

  • Theo

    Wow, it sure is nice when the blog billy duo of Mikey and the Purple Hog stay away! Makes the whole blog experience more enjoyable. Maybe somebody finally shut their 5’4″ mouth up.

  • smiley10

    What does EHI stand for and what does it indicate? Thanks!

    • Eswar

      EHI stands for Energy Helicity Index. It is a parameter that takes into account both CAPE and 0-3 Helicity(which shows the potential of storms to rotate). Basically, the higher the EHI value, the higher the chance of tornadic storms.

    • Brian

      FYI- 2 is considered a good EHI for storms to rotate, just to help you gauge the numerical values

  • mgsports

    Sunday, May 19

    Severe weather and tornado outbreak. Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in east half NE, IA,
    north and west MO, east half KS, central and northeast OK, extreme north-central TX near Wichita
    Falls-Gainesville, extreme east SD, central and south MN, west and north-central WI. TOR:CON -
    This one in Red 70% west and central IA; we have a 60% east KS; 5 north-central OK.

    Sunday night/overnight: The severe thunderstorm threat will likely continue overnight in the east half of OK, northwest
    AR, west, central, and northeast MO, IA, north and west-central IL, south MN, south and west-
    central WI. TOR:CON – 3 after midnight in these areas
    Monday, May 20

    Severe weather outbreak continues. Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in southeast MN, central
    and south WI, eastern upper peninsula MI, lower peninsula MI, northwest OH, north and central
    IN, north and central IL, east IA, northeast, central, southwest MO, southeast KS, northeast
    and central OK. TOR:CON – 5 central OK; 5 north IL.

    • bob osoborne

      Stop with this inane cut and paste of the torcon. It’s just a gimmick TWC uses and rarely verifies. Info is much nicer when a link is given instead of these huge cut and pastes.

  • Drought Miser

    So all in all we need to get are severe weather plans in order prepare for the worst but hope and pray for the best. I will be chasing this weekend along with the TVN teams. I believe dominator 2 but that could change as conditions change, let’s all stay safe and have a great weekend …

    • Brian

      What area are you thinking about targeting first? I am also going to be chasing this weekend and I am not thinking that I will need to travel to far west

  • Joseph Tay

    What is it with these people posting TORCON links, copying and pasting NWS discussions, etc? Anyone who has an interest in that knows where to go and those who don’t, don’t care.

  • mgsports

    Theirs already a Moderate Risk tomorrow out so on Sunday/Monday maybe on to or maybe a Red Zone.

  • selvco

    Personally I appreciate the NWS discussions being quoted here.

  • bob osoborne

    It’s just as easy to go to the NOAA or SPC page and read them yourself instead of someone cut and pasting missives. Gary even asked us not to do that awhile back. Besides, mgsports has a tendency to misread the info and stir things into a frenzy. He’s entitled to an opinion, of course, but is not one of the more educated weather bloggers.

  • John Sickels

    Models still aren’t in great agreement about tornado potential around here. Severe yes, but exact mode is still unclear.

    When I was younger I would have been rooting for the tornadoes, but now that I’m old and have a family and a greater understanding of the important things in life, I look back on my younger excitement about tornadoes with a cringe.

    I’ll take some heavy rain and thunder and small hail anytime. Tornadoes, not so much. Stay out in the open fields please.

  • John Sickels

    So all that said, here is my 48 hour prediction. We’ll see if I’m remotely accurate or not. I’m basically making this up.

    Nothing around E-KS or W-MO tomorrow. Too warm and capped. There will be a strongly-worded moderate risk out in W-KS which will verify with some severe storms in the DDC area, huge hail, and some small tornadoes.

    The potential for storms here on early Sunday morning is overblown as the front will slow down some tomorrow. There will be a few cells around but nothing major as everyone goes to church.

    SPC will go with a strongly-worded moderate risk over a fairly broad area Sunday morning, stretching from about Des Moines to Omaha southward to OKC and into northern Texas. This will be partially upgraded to high risk at the 1130 update for a rather narrow band from roughly along I-35 about Emporia southwest to OKC.

    There will be a PDS watch Sunday from Wichita southward, with regular (though strongly worded) tornado watches up into NE, IA, E-KS, and W-MO.

    We will have severe storms around here Sunday afternoon/evening and several radar-indicated tornado warnings. There will be three brief tornadoes in various points in E-KS and W-MO but nothing too terrible and no significant damage. Some areas will get 2-3 inches of rain in the bigger storms.

    Further south, there will be more action, with 17 verified tornado reports in S-KS and OK. Two of these will cause EF-3 damage in rural areas and farmsteads with a few minor injuries, but no one will be killed and the major population areas will be spared.

    In short, there will be some action but many bullets are dodged Sunday. How’s that for a forecast?

  • mukustink

    How many times have we seen this 2 days out heck even 12 hours out and nothing happens? I remember a blog title a while back with words like dangerous or something like that. Where is Mower when you need him? Let’s all wait until Sunday afternoon to see how it’s setting up.

    MGSPORTS PLEASE stop with the tcut and paste of the torcon crap. It’s junk science like the lrc. It’s totaly inaccurate and as someones stated a gimmick by TWC. Thanks have a great weekend!

    • WxAholic

      Frankly, because of the very nature of these “events”, people with this attitude die to storm systems like this. Yes it is usually hyped a bit but really i would rather have the idea that something may affect my family and i and at least be prepared and have nothing happen at all then to go on ignoring the possibility and be caught unaware especially considering we have had nothing at all the last 2 years and i bet a lot of people are complacent to that. What is worse? Spreading “fear” or ignoring it? Oh since the ones always claiming the LRC and the like are “junk science” and demand proof of its validity cannot also discredit it with 100% accuracy i suppose those opinions are also “junk”. I read and lurk here a lot. I have bitten my tong a ton out of respect for those that use this for what its meant to be used for but I’m sick of wannabe’s posting useless posts to do nothing more than attack people and detract from the purpose. At least MGsports is actually posting potential weather information on a weather blog…..

  • smiley10

    Thanks for the EHI explanation!

  • mgsports

    Greg Forbes of Weather Channel is usly right in his prediction of percent and it will be fined tuned with every update intill the Storms happen.
    I should just post KC area.
    Somebody will be under a PDS at the moment IOWA as it looks.
    The Fox Station says no bad storms here but they will be wrong.

    • the calm before the storm station kind of concerns me, while I think data runs are still needed before a good indication of what will occur, I think his “eh not a big deal” attitude might be a bit hasty and silly. He was dead wrong with the huge snow storm we had this winter, and it wasn’t a inch or two wrong, but flat out said it was gonna miss us. While I do like the guy and do give respect to his forecast, I think he sometimes gives the wrong impression where is people need to serious pay attention at least to see what develops on sunday.

  • restull

    I’m not sold yet on a tornado outbreak or even a widespread severe outbreak. We don’t know yet how many small-scale disturbances will be rotating around the developing cutoff low in the northern plains. Also, how much early morning low clouds and fog as well as any convective debris will be present during the peak heating? Something still seems to be missing. I definitely think Oklahoma will be the preferred location for storm chasing over anywhere in Kansas.

  • smiley10

    If people want to post about the torcon, I think that’s fine. This blog is to discuss weather topics and they are doing just that. If we are going to have a fair and open environment that tolerates all viewpoints on the LRC, then we should be willing to tolerate posts about other forecasting tools as well, including the Torcon.

  • McCabe58

    Agreed. Continue posting torcon info please and thank you. Haters gon’ hate. And yeahh…. The “calm before the storm” guy is a joke lol.. No reason whatsoever to respect anything that comes out of his mouth.

  • ravenscroft

    Iowa TC-7
    East Ks. TC-6
    as of mid-night Saturday

  • NWS has officially put us in a moderate risk for Sunday
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

  • ravenscroft

    Mod risk for us south to Ok City. This is on the day two which is sig..

  • ravenscroft

    FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY 21Z SUNDAY AT TULSA…OKLAHOMA CITY AND KANSAS
    CITY SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500
    J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE LATE
    AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA AS A MID-LEVEL JET MOVES
    INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS COMBINED WITH 850 TO 500 MB
    LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
    SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN
    DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS. IN
    ADDITION…A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BECOME FOCUSED BY EARLY
    SUNDAY EVENING FROM SW MO SWWD INTO ECNTRL OK. SUPERCELLS ON THE WRN
    EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BECOME TORNADIC WITH
    A CLUSTER OF TORNADOES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THE
    GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST ACROSS ECNTRL OK
    AND SE KS WHERE 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE FORECAST TO
    REACH 400 M2/S2 IN THE 00Z TO 03Z TIMEFRAME. DUE TO THE STRONG DEEP
    LAYER SHEAR…CELLS SHOULD REMAIN DISCRETE DURING MUCH OF THE EVENT.
    SUPERCELLS COULD ALSO PRODUCE SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE. THE WIND DAMAGE
    THREAT COULD BECOME ENHANCED DURING THE EVENING IF A LINEAR MCS CAN
    ORGANIZE.