Good morning bloggers,
The severe weather risk will be increasing Sunday!
Weather Forecast Timeline:
- Today: Cloudy this morning with some sunshine breaking out and partly cloudy later today. We are expecting a dry day with south winds 5-15 mph. High: 79°
- Saturday: Mostly cloudy early in the morning, then very humid and warm. High: 86°
- Sunday: Dry most of the day. A risk of severe thunderstorms during the evening or at night. High: 84°
Did you see the cumulonimbus cloud as the sun was beginning to set tonight? This thunderstorm was about to dissipate near I-35 north of Cameron, MO:
I pointed at the penetrating top, which is often called an “overshooting top”, which is a dome-like protrusion that shoots through the cumulonimbus anvil cloud. This is caused by a strong updraft. This updraft pushes the building cumulonimbus cloud through the previous anvil that had spread out from another previously strong updraft. Now, will we see stronger versions of these thunderstorms later this weekend?
A strong wave of energy will be ripping out into the plains states on Sunday afternoon and evening and we are concerned that all of the conditions may be coming together for our most serious severe weather risk in a very long time, over a year for sure. We should all pay close attention to these late weekend developments. Here is one of the surface forecast solutions valid Sunday evening:
The models have been all over the place with varying solutions of the late weekend into early next week weather pattern………I am waiting on one more model run before I finish this blog entry….
New Data Update 11 AM: The morning data is still coming in and at first glance there is still no clear cut solution, which is typical of a storm of this type. We know that the conditions for severe weather will be coming together on Sunday and Monday across our area. And, the GFS is somewhat impressive on Kansas City being one of the target areas. The uncertainties lie on the timing of thunderstorms and where they will be located. The GFS model just came out with a strong band of thunderstorms forecast early Sunday morning and then a long wait until regeneration during the late afternoon or evening to our west. The NAM has it’s own solution, but has some similarities. We will learn more about this unique set-up every few hours and we will keep you updated on 41 Action News.
There is a slight risk for Sunday and the Storm Prediction Center has some stronger wording for our area. You can click on the map on the left for a larger view. From the SPC: “Forecast soundings at 00z/Mon (7 PM Sunday) from Kansas City south southwestward to Tulsa and Oklahoma City show MLCAPE values of 2500 to 3500 J/KG with 0-6 KM shear in the 45 to 55 kt range. A mid-level jet is forecast to move through the base of the upper level trough helping to increase deep layer shear profiles as the event unfolds. This along with steep development. Large hail including hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant super cells. In addition…a low-level jet is forecast to intensify early Sunday evening which should create low-level shear profiles favorable for tornadoes. A few strong tornadoes may also occur”
The conditions will be coming together, but there are still uncertainties and we will go over the latest data on 41 Action News today and tonight.
Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog. Let us know if you have any questions/comments and have a great weekend. Kalee Dionne will be writing her first Action Weather Blog entry in the morning. Be sure to watch 41 Action News, and we’ll keep you advised.