Good morning bloggers,
An extreme weather event is possible in the next two weeks. A major flooding event is likely going to materialize over the plains states, and Kansas City is a potential target. The weather pattern is evolving into one that will produce multiple chances of heavy thunderstorms. There will likely be a zone that gets hit by each of these storm systems, and given the time of year and moisture available there is a chance of 4 to 6 inch rainfall amounts from smaller scale convective features that form over the plains. This forecast map just happened to pop up on my screen during the 6 PM newscast after the new GFS came in showing nearly 15″ of rain near KC, and nearly 10″ near Wichita. Is this really possible, because if it happens, it will be an extreme weather event that would be record breaking.
Every model I have seen has at least 4″ to 6″ over the next ten days in this region with a 10″ bullseye. Here is last night’s GFS model:
Last night’s 06z GFS model had a 20″ bullseye. It is something to pay close attention to. What is causing this set up? The LRC! The weather pattern that set up last fall was a very wet one in this same area. Remember October when 10″ of rain fell in KC? This is the same pattern now, and we are getting the late May version of this.
This upper level, 500 mbar, forecast map shows the flow valid tomorrow night. There is a blocking upper high over central Canada that is influencing the jet stream and helping push it way south. A storm will be ejecting out across Kansas Saturday night. A more energetic pattern then sets up for early next week:
A strong jet stream will be intensifying over the eastern Pacific in response to the blocking over Canada. There is a lot going on here, and the blocking and resulting flow east of the blocking over Canada will provide the conditions for a strong baroclinic zone (frontal zone or temperature contrast) to be maintained near the Kansas/Missouri region for around a week at least. And, with the moisture available from the warm Gulf of Mexico, the fuel will be available for flooding and severe weather set ups through Tornado Alley.
The flow by next Friday weakens a bit, but the blocking upper highs are still a major influence, and this will likely keep the front (baroclinic zone) near Kansas and Missouri which will provide the conditions for the generation of more thunderstorm complexes, severe weather risks, and flooding.
The set up for Monday has our attention for many reasons, but we also have to monitor Saturday closely. Here are the risks:
These are the 1, 2, and 4 day severe weather outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center. There is a lot to discuss here, and today’s risk is way out northwest and southwest of KC allowing us a day to breath and analyze. I need to do my own in-depth analysis and see how Saturday looks as the new data comes in. We will update you on 41 Action News tonight, and then in the blog comments on Weather2020.com. Join in the conversation over there.
Have a great day! Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.