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A Series Of Five Storm Systems In The Next Two Weeks

Good morning bloggers,

A series of storm systems will begin targeting the plains states within the next week. This will bring an increasing chance of severe thunderstorms, and a chance of flooding rains, and even some late season snow farther north.

1The first “BOMB CYCLONE” within this years LRC happened on March 12th.  If you remember, it was a powerful surface low that set records for the lowest pressure ever over parts of Kansas.  The part of the weather pattern that produced the conditions for that intense storm will be cycling back through within the next seven days or so. There is order to the chaos and it is described by the LRC, which is the centerpiece of a complex atmospheric puzzle.  The LRC predicted last weeks tornado outbreaks perfectly, in fact so perfectly that Jeremy Nelson, who used to work with us at KSHB-TV, predicted that April 19th there would be a tornado near Savannah, GA, as there had been in most of the previous four LRC cycles.  And, his prediction was spot on and down to the county, and the forecast was made 45 days before April 19th on March 5th.

There has been some concern from a few of our bloggers on how it seems to have dried out a bit.  Let’s take a look at the numbers:

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For the year, Kansas City is over one inch of water above average, which includes melted down snow.  If you go back to the beginning of this years LRC around October 5, 2018, Kansas City is 10.6″ of water above average.  Here are the numbers for the previous four cycles:

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If you look at just the last cycle, we have come back down to earth and we actually had a cycle that came in exactly on average.  In our spring forecast, we predict that we will have a return to above average rainfall between now and around the first day of summer, which is around 10″ of rain. We are predicting around 15″ or more in this next two months.

There is a good chance of rain today:

Screen Shot 2019-04-23 at 6.23.00 AM

 

There is an upper level disturbance over northwest Texas. This will likely hold together long enough to spread rain into the KC metro area before the day is over. The diurnal range will be at the most six degrees, and it is currently 52° to 54° early this morning, so the high will likely stay below 60° today.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Cloudy and much cooler. There is a 90% chance of light rain later today. High:  58°
  • Tonight:  Cloudy with a 90% chance of light rain.  Total rainfall amounts between 0.05″ and 0.35″ likely. Low:  50°
  • Wednesday:  Cloudy with a few lingering showers possible during the morning.  High:  66°
  • Next Ten Days:   Increasing chances for heavy thunderstorms from Saturday through next Wednesday.  2″ to 5″ of rain possible.

Today is a special day:

Screen Shot 2019-04-22 at 11.20.09 PM

Today, I am quite honored to accept this award at Johnson County Community College.  I will be presenting about my career, how I got started, and discuss the LRC, and more.  Hopefully it will go over well for today’s audience.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  I will check back in after today’s event.  Join in the conversation on the Weather2020 blog by clicking here:

Gary

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