A Rather Dramatic Front Is Drifting Southeast

Good morning bloggers,

The day begins with a rather fascinating weather pattern across the United States. Kansas City will, once again, likely going to miss any major winter storm systems this week. Last night on 41 Action News I described three to four storm systems that are lining up to affect KC. The most exciting weather will happen all around us, as has been happening the past few years, and a lot of times this winter.  There is a Winter Weather Advisory for parts of our viewing  area across northwestern Missouri and far northeastern Kansas.  Here are the advisories in effect as of this morning:

Screen Shot 2018-02-19 at 7.44.43 AM

I analyzed this surface map real quickly this morning. This is the 7:23 AM surface map showing a rather strong and slow moving cold front approaching from the northwest. Take a look at this:


This cold front is really strong.  Arctic air is located one state away. It was down into the single digits this morning with snow falling over parts of Nebraska. And, incredibly it was 63 degrees in Kansas City at 7 AM this morning. SIXTYTHREE degrees. Wow!  The ground has “sweated” once again and everything is wet without any rain falling as this warm and moist air flows north from the Gulf of Mexico.  What is going to happen with this front, with this pattern? What does this mean for our weather?

The Cycling Weather Pattern:

  • The weather patter is cycling Regularly
  • A unique pattern sets up each fall from around October 1st through November
  • Quasi-permanent anchor troughs and ridges set up in different locations each fall. Storm systems intensify as they approach and move into the anchor troughs, and storm systems are less frequent and weaker as they move through the anchor ridges
  • A cycle length evolves, and then continues through the rest of fall, winter, spring, and summer until a new and unique pattern sets up the next fall

We are currently in this “same pattern” that set up last fall, and we are about to end cycle 3 and begin cycle 4 of this pattern. Take a look at what is showing up on all of the models I have seen. The map comparison below shows the forecast from last nights European model valid February 25th.  Look at the incredible comparison.

Screen Shot 2018-02-19 at 7.40.07 AM

On this map above, you are looking at the 500 mb flow, around 18,000 feet above us, showing the weather pattern that already happened in October, and then the forecast pattern for February 25th.  We have shown dozens of examples this season of the cycling pattern at around a 47-day cycle.  February 25th is exactly 141 days after October 7th, or 47 times 3 days ago (141 days).  This is exactly on cycle. You can’t make this up; pretty incredible.  So, what does this mean for Kansas City, for Chicago, for Amarillo TX, for New York City?  It just snowed again over the northeastern United States, over the big cities of Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston. We predicted this past weekends storm system at the AMS conference in Austin, TX 47 days ago. There we go again, 47-days.  The same pattern continues to produce similar results.  Now, take a look at this.

Screen Shot 2018-02-19 at 8.07.23 AM

Are we finally about to get the pattern to block up? Look at the Arctic Oscillation forecast to dip deep into negative territory for the first time in this pattern. Finally something just a bit different right? Well, this just has to mean good things for KC right? When the AO dips deep negative there is an increased chance of Arctic air blasting south and the jet stream gets forced farther south and is energized. But, will it impact KC?


It will still be the same pattern, but with a potential blocking influence for the first time this season. This map above shows the blocking high well forming near Greenland. We will discuss this more in the coming days.  For now, a strong cold front is heading towards KC.  But, look at what is forecast by 3 PM on Tuesday afternoon:


Are you kidding me? This is the latest NAM model showing all of the winter precipitation types will have shifted mostly into Canada by tomorrow afternoon.  Remember, there are three more systems lining up for later this week. Let’s take a look at the Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Cloudy with a chance of showers. The wind will shift to the north with temperatures dropping from the 60s into the 40s, possibly into the 30s this afternoon.
  • Tonight:  Rain showers developing. The chance of rain is going up to 100% by morning.  Temperatures holding steady or possibly rising a bit.  The wind will shift to the east or southeast.
  • Tuesday:  Rain likely in the morning, possibly briefly changing to freezing rain or sleet before ending. Temperatures dropping into the 20s.
  • Wednesday – Thursday:  Mostly cloudy with a chance of freezing rain, sleet, snow, or rain showers.

Thank you for sharing in the Action Weather Blog Experience Featuring Weather2020 & The LRC. Let us know if you have any questions or comments. Go over to the Weather2020 blog and join in the conversation. Have a great day. Let’s see how this trends.


Share and Enjoy:
  • Print
  • Digg
  • StumbleUpon
  • del.icio.us
  • Facebook
  • Yahoo! Buzz
  • Twitter
  • Google Bookmarks

Comments are closed.