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A Quiet Weather Picture Nationwide

Good morning bloggers,

The weather pattern over most of the United States is quite calm. There is a Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the Arctic coast of northern Alaska, but other than that it is really a tranquil day:

Screen Shot 2017-10-18 at 8.41.49 AM

The largest advisory on today’s weather map is the Red Flag Advisory for the northern plains where it has been dry and quite warm this week for this time of the year.  The next impacting storm will be coming into the west coast Thursday and this will bring a chance of rain and thunderstorms to Kansas City by Saturday.  We will look deeper into this storm system in tomorrows blog and on 41 Action News tonight.

The influences on the winter forecast:

Puzzle-2

  • The LRC is the center piece of the cycling pattern.  There are other influences that will help shape this big atmospheric puzzle.
  • The Arctic Oscillation is one big piece to consider (AO)
  • The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is one big piece to track
  • La Niña is developing, but it has not been established yet
  • There are other wild cards to consider

The AO and NAO:

Screen Shot 2017-10-18 at 8.32.22 AM

Screen Shot 2017-10-18 at 8.32.38 AM

Both the NAO and AO are forecast to dip negative during the next seven to ten days.  This is after the early part of this weather pattern had AO and NAO indexes in the positive.  When these indexes go deeper into the negative there is an increased chance of blocking and an increased chance of cold blasts developing over North America. Let’s follow these closely in the next few days.

La Niña:

Screen Shot 2017-10-18 at 8.34.13 AM

The phase of ENSO just took a big dip in the past week after it appeared that the tropical Pacific waters were warming a bit. The forecast from the CFSv2 forecast is for the cooling to continue and a La Niña to develop during the winter months.

The La Niña developments have my attention the most at the moment, but just like last winter when a weak La Niña started forming, the cycling pattern was only influenced by this phenomenon. The bigger piece of the puzzle is the LRC.  I saw a few more winter forecasts in the past two weeks. I have probably seen dozens of them now.  These forecasts are not considering the biggest piece of the puzzle. Any forecast that comes out before now may be able to make a very broad forecast for this winter with very little chance of being accurate, but if they do not consider the biggest piece of the puzzle how can they have any credibility.  This is how I look at it. We are still less than two weeks into this years cycling pattern. We are about to experience around 30 to 40 more days of this pattern that have not happened yet, so hang on for the ride. We will learn so much more in the next 30 days.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the cycling weather pattern.  Go to Weather2020.com and join in the blog conversation over there. I will likely be doing a Facebook Live tonight to discuss the developing weather pattern.

Gary Lezak

 

Gary

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