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A Quiet Weather Pattern

Good Sunday morning bloggers,

Well, after the excitement of the last few days, we are headed for a rather calm pattern the next 7-10 days.  A warm up is in store for the second half of the work week.  We will have to watch for an Arctic outbreak by the end of the month as Arctic air will be building in Canada.  See maps below.

A surface high pressure will track from Kansas to Missouri the next 24 hours.  This will keep us cold, clear and calm.  Lows Monday morning will fall to the single digits before the warming trend begins.

MAP#1: 3 PM SUNDAY

MAP #2: 4 PM MONDAY

MAP #3: UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR EARLY THURSDAY.   We go into a west-northwest flow from the Pacific Northwest and southwest Canada, which means a downslope, warming flow.

MAP#4: NEXT FRIDAY.  While the USA warms up, Arctic air will be building in Canada.

Unfortunately, there are no signinificant precipitation producing storm systems the next 10-14 days, so the severe to extreme drought will only get worse and our 17″ defecit will grow.  February will hopefully bring 3-4 storm systems.

Have a great Sunday and week ahead!

Jeff Penner

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31 comments to A Quiet Weather Pattern

  • Weatherfreak01

    I just looked out my window and saw snow falling.. I thought it was done..

  • blue8091

    I think the weather team did a great job last week. I read every day and the forecast was that the snow, which would be very close to us, which it was, would most likely miss us, which it missed most of us. I think most of the week the precip forecast was 20%. It was so close..and when so close you have to be prepared. It was so close that some of our viewing area did get snow and I could actually see the storm system – just barely missed us. For it being the weather, I think the team did a great job. It doesn’t help that we all want precip so badly! On a positive note – with all the calm weather it looks like we will be getting – I can get the spring gargage clean out done…before spring!! :) Have a nice day everyone!

    • zimbokc

      Great factual, non-judgemental post! The team did do a great job; let’s also not forget yesterday morning weather.com was also indicating the chance of 1-2 inches for the metro, which turned out to be inaccurate. Thanks for the great post!

    • HeatMiser

      Great factual, no-judgemental post that leaves out the blaring fact that as the storm approached they said snow was likely to give us 1-3 inches. Later they changed that to 1-2 inches. Later they changed that to a dusting to a half inch. It’s one thing to be nice, but don’t be misleading. They were wrong for a period of time. I’m not blaming them as it was a difficult forecast, but don’t obfuscate and rewrite history. That’s not doing anyone any favors. The weather team members aren’t babies, don’t treat them that way.

      • zimbokc

        You realize that your obsession over them being “wrong” about a 1-2 inch storm completely disregards how “right” they were about the December storm a few weeks ago? Let’s get some perspective.

      • blue8091

        I think sticking with positives works for me. They were on target all week and sounds to me like all maps shifted – incorrectly predicting snow for our immediate area, even for a dusting. Furthermore, when you can drive 10-20 minutes and be in that snow…it’s a close call. They also talked about a very sharp cut-off line – all week. Exactly what happened. Let’s not forget that nobody is perfect and I believe they give us their best efforts and I’m good with that.

        • We talked about being on the edge all week. Yes the day of the storm was not nowcasted well at all. But in the end this storm did what we thought it would do. You are only as good as your last forecast .

          • Rock Hardon

            I am not sure how a “nowcast” can go wrong but the bottom line is that Gary and his staff are paid to be right. Before the chorus of “it’s hard to predict the future based on ever changing data and the forces of mother naure” begins, keep in mind that there are thousands of other jobs that have the same type of responsiblity andd are much more relevant and important than what it is going to do in Kansas City tomorrow. If you don’t want to be subject to second guessing quit calling them forecasts and start calling them guesses. If you don’t want to be called out on the forecasts when they are wrong, quit trumpeting youself as the most accurate forecast everytime you open your mouth. As far as the faithful followers on blog, as difficult as it is to fathom, you must acknowledge and accept that Gary and his team are not always right.

  • blueflash

    When the clouds clear out today, it should be a very interesting visible satellite image, with the distinct snow/no snow cutoff.

  • f00dl3

    Now’s a good time to stock up on those soaker hoses for watering the foundation. You can find them on sale if you know where to look.

  • R-Dub

    While it’s true most other outlets made the same mistake as the KSHB weather team, isn’t this team supposed to be more accurate than the other guys?

    It is weird how the gfs suddenly shifted like that, and everybody bit on it because it was so close to the event. Then the shift just never happened. It’s rare to see a storm where the forecasts 3 days out are better than the ones 18 hours out….

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Snow flurries in Platte City right now. Brrrrrrrrr it is cold outside

  • Freeze Miser

    Just a few flakes yesterday and this morning in east Independence. When will we just call a scratch on the drought and start over? At this slow pace catching up precipitation is like paying off the national debt!

  • Hockeynut69

    If you make 7 different forecasts about the same storm, one is bound to be right. I would have been satisfied with the forecast had the weather team stuck with their original prediction of kc being on me edge and not more than flurries. However even two hours prior to the storm, the forecast was 1-2 inches. So was it a hit or a miss? Depends on which of the multiple forecasts you go with. I would call it a fail because we hear stated many times that we must wait until 24 hours before the storm to determine path, speed, and strength.

    With this type of forecasting accuracy, I will make my own forecasts:New England will win in a blowout, New England will win a close one. Houston will win in a blowout, Houston will win a close one. It is still several hours until the game but as it approaches I will make yet another prediction and tomorrow I can post how I was right because one of my predictions was correct.

    With that said, very sad only to get flurries, especially after relying on the forecast and giving my kiddos the hope to be sledding today. Guess I will take them skating or something else after church.

  • Skylar

    Ending it isn’t about replenishing numerical deficits, it’s about restoring soil moisture and bringing water levels back to normal. If we suddenly got 17″ of rain today, we’d still be in a drought. If we can get near average precipitation for the next few months, then everything will still be fine.

  • rred95

    I think we are in a mini dust bowl type pattern that will last 2 or 3 years. we have been in this drought for 17 months now. I thought this pattern was new and unique compared to last year but i have changed my mind now I think this year is related to last years drought pattern. just to similar.. imo

  • Hockeynut69

    Rred I would actually agree that pattern is new based on jet stream, more active pattern of storms, etc. The bad part and consistent issue is the lack of precipitation for the immediate metro area. The end result is the same but certainly there is a new pattern.

  • Emaw

    If we didn’t hear how 41 is the most accurate all of the time, and how bad all of the other outlets are, I don’t think people would be so quick to judge. When you claim superiority over your competitors and you blow one you’re going to hear about it, period. Gary’s a big boy I think he can take it, he himself created this forum.

  • stjoeattorney

    you know .10-.25 inches max in 1+3 inches of snow is nothing a 60 mile wide area barely getting the SE metro area. The satelite shows it well, nothing up here. JUST PLAY NICE.

  • McCabe58

    Yeah I got an inch and a half down here in pleasant hill… One county south of Jackson. 15 miles south of blue springs. The forecast wasn’t 100% accurate, but I don’t think they did a terrible job.

  • restull

    Chicago residents should be the real ones complaining. Only 1.3 inches this season! Check out all the snow records they’ve set!!
    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=90812&source=0

  • McCabe58

    Just look at this satellite picture. Incredibly close! “http://ow.ly/i/1mJuZ”

    • zimbokc

      Perfect representation of what was forecasted Friday by the 41 team: The storm could shift 1-2 counties south.

  • RickMckc

    Agreed that the team waffled at the end on this forecast. Agreed that they also called it as “on the edge” for several days in advance.

    What’s interesting to me is how sensitive we are (and I don’t mean that as “emotionally sensitive”) to the slightest deviation between prediction and result in considering the forecast to be a success or failure. In areas that typically get a lot of snow, to be off by an inch or two or an hour or two or 20 to 30 miles is no big deal. It’s going to snow again tomorrow anyway.

    But here it seems like we demand just shy of perfection simply because we don’t get a lot of snow – a reality which works against developing successful snow forecasting skills.

  • Emaw

    Rick , that’s a great point , I completely agree.

  • rred95

    i didnt mind the forcast it was tricky. I guess the only thing that bothered me was such high confidenance in a couple inches of snow so close to event, well the closer you get to the event the more accurate the forcast should become right?

  • kellyinkc

    Now this is interesting:
    “http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/search?updated-min=2013-01-01T00:00:00-06:00&updated-max=2014-01-01T00:00:00-06:00&max-results=6″

  • blue8091

    McCabe – really cool pic! I’m not nearly as technical about the weather as some of you are, but that fact that there is so much to learn by the weather team and the bloggers keeps it interesting and I’m facinated by the weather, but a complete novice. Mainly I know how much we need the moisture. It was really interesting to be outside yesterday walking and observing the sky both directly above me and surrounding…and then coming inside and seeing the radar and thinking..I just saw exactly that in the sky. Largely to the SE and a bit to SW but where I was…nada. A person can smell the rain and you can smell snow too…and it was so close you could smell it! Crazy! F00dl3 hit the nail on the head for me – my stress about the precip comes from managing 21 rental homes and trying to figure out how to fit soaker hoses into the budget – I’m worried about all those foundations. It’s hard to watch the weather keep passing us by…

    Interesting read kellyinkc! We keep hearing about end of Jan and Feb…

  • Theo

    I’ll ask my boss tomorrow if having my reports wrong is OK. Even by a little bit.

    No, wait. I already know the answer.

    If the mets @ 41 are big boys, they can take it. They blew the forecast. They got caught up wishcasting like most of you snow groupies on here do.

  • Theo

    No, the drought won’t be over “if we have a couple of good months of moisture”. It will take an entire season of above average rainfall and it won’t be happening in 2013.